Prediction if Air Force wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

Team	Likelihood	Most Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale	100.0000%	1
North Dakota	100.0000%	2
Boston College	100.0000%	3
Michigan	100.0000%	4
Miami	100.0000%	4
Denver	100.0000%	6
Union	100.0000%	8
Merrimack	100.0000%	9
Minnesota-Duluth	100.0000%	10
Notre Dame	99.9924%	10
New Hampshire	99.9906%	11
Nebraska-Omaha	91.0161%	13
Colorado College	89.5596%	14
Rensselaer	69.5914%	15
Western Michigan	63.9344%	11
Air Force	54.9763%	16
Dartmouth	50.6460%	14
RIT	33.8493%	16
Connecticut	11.1744%	16
Cornell	11.0718%	15
Bemidji State	9.1842%	15
Boston University	6.4041%	15
Northeastern	5.2652%	16
Colgate	2.7255%	16
Maine	0.6186%	15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	89.4668%	26.0735%	76894
2	4.8063%	11.4946%	33899
3	5.7225%	12.3600%	36451
4	0.0043%	0.0719%	212

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	6.3792%	15.2296%	44914
2	64.5490%	21.4179%	63164
3	29.0718%	13.3525%	39378

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	4.1539%	8.6968%	25648
2	30.6438%	17.0702%	50342
3	58.7247%	20.6102%	60782
4	6.4776%	3.6228%	10684

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
2	0.0009%	0.0173%	51
3	2.0324%	0.4449%	1312
4	36.3398%	16.7504%	49399
5	29.7766%	15.2401%	44945
6	14.8504%	6.6752%	19686
7	10.8368%	4.6041%	13578
8	4.2980%	4.6336%	13665
9	1.6118%	1.3557%	3998
10	0.2533%	0.2787%	822

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
3	4.4486%	3.2325%	9533
4	27.3054%	13.9035%	41003
5	21.8263%	11.4434%	33748
6	20.7873%	8.7582%	25829
7	11.7416%	3.9093%	11529
8	7.9004%	3.8327%	11303
9	5.5053%	4.3213%	12744
10	0.4851%	0.5992%	1767

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	10.8758%	5.2829%	15580
5	28.9283%	12.9506%	38193
6	30.4079%	14.4962%	42751
7	20.8927%	11.7140%	34546
8	8.0489%	5.0530%	14902
9	0.6734%	0.3370%	994
10	0.1731%	0.1662%	490

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.0337%	0.0916%	270
6	4.0221%	4.5156%	13317
7	27.0124%	16.0071%	47207
8	51.3431%	22.1110%	65208
9	16.4810%	6.9177%	20401
10	1.1077%	0.3571%	1053

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	16.3843%	9.3723%	27640
5	11.6719%	5.2897%	15600
6	15.2144%	7.2059%	21251
7	15.3144%	7.1415%	21061
8	16.1647%	6.1893%	18253
9	19.6264%	11.2111%	33063
10	5.6240%	3.5902%	10588

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
7	0.0436%	0.0576%	170
8	5.1122%	2.4848%	7328
9	28.8329%	13.0846%	38588
10	53.7181%	26.3194%	77619
11	12.2932%	8.0536%	23751

Notre Dame - 99.9924% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	2.6095%	0.9952%	2935
5	6.7894%	3.9659%	11696
6	8.8656%	4.5444%	13402
7	6.1310%	3.0877%	9106
8	3.8306%	2.6530%	7824
9	26.1773%	12.1609%	35864
10	29.5675%	11.9497%	35241
11	9.5242%	4.7655%	14054
12	5.8595%	4.5956%	13553
13	0.3689%	0.7029%	2073
14	0.2555%	0.4042%	1192
15	0.0134%	0.0163%	48
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0003%	0.0149%	44
14	0.0052%	0.1302%	384
15	0.0022%	0.0136%	40

New Hampshire - 99.9906% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	0.0034%	0.0010%	3
5	0.9738%	1.0186%	3004
6	5.8523%	3.8045%	11220
7	8.0276%	3.4787%	10259
8	3.3023%	3.0426%	8973
9	1.0919%	0.6117%	1804
10	3.7869%	3.4485%	10170
11	44.6773%	18.0796%	53319
12	23.4465%	10.2149%	30125
13	7.2782%	4.4620%	13159
14	1.4157%	1.5791%	4657
15	0.1349%	0.1455%	429
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0005%	0.0210%	62
14	0.0081%	0.0787%	232
15	0.0008%	0.0136%	40

Nebraska-Omaha - 91.0161% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
12	16.8739%	3.1440%	9272
13	40.5217%	13.1066%	38653
14	19.9337%	9.0441%	26672
15	13.6868%	4.4729%	13191
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0213%	0.4703%	1387
14	0.6418%	3.7360%	11018
15	4.2187%	11.0138%	32481
16	4.1020%	5.0123%	14782

Colorado College - 89.5596% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.1606%	0.1221%	360
11	4.5832%	3.2484%	9580
12	25.6503%	11.3122%	33361
13	15.4075%	8.2845%	24432
14	36.9523%	9.1760%	27061
15	6.8057%	2.2681%	6689
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0126%	0.2506%	739
14	0.7322%	3.2169%	9487
15	2.9075%	6.1618%	18172
16	6.7880%	5.9594%	17575

Rensselaer - 69.5914% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	0.2630%	0.3655%	1078
12	2.9194%	3.4776%	10256
13	13.4131%	10.7259%	31632
14	21.5643%	12.2643%	36169
15	31.4316%	4.3684%	12883
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0258%	0.5768%	1701
14	0.7337%	3.9303%	11591
15	10.2694%	9.7972%	28893
16	18.2391%	4.3511%	12832
17	1.1405%	0.1428%	421

Western Michigan - 63.9344% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	5.0931%	3.1447%	9274
11	20.0620%	11.8544%	34960
12	13.8503%	9.6144%	28354
13	14.0331%	7.6026%	22421
14	4.2412%	1.9158%	5650
15	6.6547%	0.7768%	2291
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0054%	0.1628%	480
14	0.1060%	0.3933%	1160
15	1.2622%	1.3089%	3860
16	6.0466%	2.8619%	8440
17	18.8173%	6.4155%	18920
18	9.6746%	3.6801%	10853
19	0.1534%	0.2689%	793

Air Force - 54.9763% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0789%	1.5625%	4608
15	4.2352%	9.3750%	27648
16	50.6622%	14.0625%	41472
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	0.0064%	0.0149%	44
21	9.3590%	4.3620%	12864
22	22.8922%	5.7451%	16943
23	3.8620%	1.9409%	5724
24	7.7378%	4.4315%	13069
25	8.0445%	5.7953%	17091
26	2.4312%	2.2451%	6621
27	4.3080%	3.3661%	9927
28	16.1371%	9.7154%	28652
29	23.9458%	10.0243%	29563
30	1.2760%	2.3593%	6958

Dartmouth - 50.6460% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.0306%	0.0244%	72
11	8.5971%	3.6329%	10714
12	11.4000%	7.6413%	22535
13	8.9109%	3.5529%	10478
14	11.6229%	2.7944%	8241
15	10.0845%	1.2244%	3611
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0007%	0.0661%	195
14	0.0609%	0.9335%	2753
15	3.0811%	3.3190%	9788
16	25.0315%	9.0925%	26815
17	11.7638%	4.6760%	13790
18	5.4777%	5.3263%	15708
19	3.3525%	5.0964%	15030
20	0.5003%	2.4733%	7294
21	0.0732%	0.1282%	378
22	0.0123%	0.0183%	54

RIT - 33.8493% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0464%	0.7657%	2258
15	2.5928%	4.6705%	13774
16	31.2101%	7.0638%	20832
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
19	0.0006%	0.0020%	6
20	0.0127%	0.0417%	123
21	5.3619%	1.4411%	4250
22	11.4176%	2.3631%	6969
23	11.4526%	3.8425%	11332
24	4.8908%	3.1786%	9374
25	0.1643%	0.5802%	1711
26	0.5445%	1.0376%	3060
27	0.0714%	0.1255%	370
28	11.1660%	2.9416%	8675
29	24.5760%	11.7964%	34789
30	25.9932%	16.3907%	48338
31	4.3485%	6.2592%	18459

Connecticut - 11.1744% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.3046%	3.1250%	9216
16	10.8699%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
42	11.1537%	12.4912%	36838
43	0.0207%	0.0088%	26
45	34.6055%	19.6916%	58073
46	53.2982%	15.5029%	45720
47	0.9219%	2.3054%	6799

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.5830%	3.1250%	9216
15	10.4888%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	7.8366%	7.3113%	21562
21	2.4466%	4.2806%	12624
22	0.8136%	0.9159%	2701
23	0.3002%	0.0434%	128
24	0.6852%	0.3245%	957
25	4.0050%	1.2400%	3657
26	10.6883%	5.0625%	14930
27	23.9040%	10.7544%	31716
28	21.4606%	6.1588%	18163
29	16.0412%	4.2060%	12404
30	6.6114%	4.2477%	12527
31	4.0460%	3.6414%	10739
32	1.1285%	1.7710%	5223
33	0.0328%	0.0424%	125

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0667%	1.5625%	4608
14	1.6173%	6.2500%	18432
15	7.5002%	4.6875%	13824
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
17	0.0001%	0.0003%	1
18	2.1577%	2.8927%	8531
19	1.8819%	2.6588%	7841
20	5.1516%	6.9577%	20519
21	2.5230%	1.1722%	3457
22	17.7688%	6.9177%	20401
23	10.6962%	7.2259%	21310
24	19.3119%	4.1545%	12252
25	9.7367%	5.3358%	15736
26	25.1946%	9.3764%	27652
27	5.5421%	3.1809%	9381
28	0.0354%	0.1272%	375

Boston University - 6.4041% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	1.4416%	0.2858%	843
15	4.9626%	0.7284%	2148
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0523%	0.0753%	222
15	3.8091%	4.1453%	12225
16	36.6653%	20.6390%	60867
17	52.3268%	23.8586%	70362
18	0.7423%	0.2675%	789

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0182%	0.7968%	2350
15	0.7147%	4.7045%	13874
16	4.5323%	6.9987%	20640
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
22	0.0255%	0.0726%	214
23	0.0054%	0.0431%	127
24	0.4008%	0.7453%	2198
25	0.8045%	1.5079%	4447
26	0.9981%	2.4214%	7141
27	1.6666%	3.6068%	10637
28	1.2813%	3.7187%	10967
29	0.0881%	0.3947%	1164
30	3.8431%	3.6302%	10706
31	9.2348%	8.8593%	26127
32	0.4397%	0.2055%	606
33	27.5858%	4.2263%	12464
34	53.6262%	20.5682%	60658

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
16	2.7255%	12.5000%	36864
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
45	1.7823%	6.1791%	18223
46	0.9268%	6.2622%	18468
47	0.0164%	0.0587%	173
49	97.2745%	37.5000%	110592

Maine - 0.6186% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.2290%	0.0363%	107
15	0.3896%	0.0617%	182
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0034%	0.0058%	17
15	0.2852%	0.1645%	485
16	3.1274%	2.0837%	6145
17	15.9494%	14.9024%	43949
18	70.6564%	26.8626%	79221
19	8.9648%	5.5091%	16247
20	0.3947%	0.3740%	1103