Prediction if Bemidji State wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

Team	Likelihood	Most Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale	100.0000%	1
North Dakota	100.0000%	2
Boston College	100.0000%	3
Michigan	100.0000%	4
Miami	100.0000%	5
Denver	100.0000%	7
Union	100.0000%	8
Merrimack	100.0000%	9
Minnesota-Duluth	100.0000%	10
Notre Dame	99.9899%	10
New Hampshire	99.9738%	11
Colorado College	86.9330%	14
Nebraska-Omaha	86.8446%	13
Rensselaer	65.5188%	14
Western Michigan	61.1083%	11
Dartmouth	45.5123%	12
RIT	36.7267%	16
Air Force	33.5886%	16
Bemidji State	28.8741%	15
Holy Cross	17.1314%	16
Connecticut	12.5532%	16
Cornell	11.0718%	15
Boston University	5.6806%	15
Northeastern	5.2652%	16
Colgate	2.7255%	16
Maine	0.5019%	15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	89.5120%	26.2034%	77277
2	4.1853%	11.3959%	33608
3	6.2927%	12.2633%	36166
4	0.0100%	0.1373%	405

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	6.9519%	15.1225%	44598
2	68.2517%	21.5824%	63649
3	24.7964%	13.2952%	39209

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	3.5361%	8.6741%	25581
2	27.5616%	16.9939%	50117
3	62.4069%	20.6780%	60982
4	6.4954%	3.6540%	10776

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
2	0.0015%	0.0278%	82
3	2.0375%	0.4991%	1472
4	43.3977%	19.8341%	58493
5	38.4010%	17.5507%	51759
6	8.2807%	3.9449%	11634
7	1.7080%	1.8351%	5412
8	4.4028%	4.7479%	14002
9	1.5819%	1.3326%	3930
10	0.1889%	0.2279%	672

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
3	4.4665%	3.2644%	9627
4	29.4837%	15.3564%	45288
5	31.9848%	14.1273%	41663
6	19.4031%	7.5640%	22307
7	5.7332%	2.0274%	5979
8	3.2115%	2.9127%	8590
9	5.3586%	4.3688%	12884
10	0.3588%	0.3791%	1118

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	5.4081%	5.2002%	15336
6	31.1830%	14.9038%	43953
7	37.9003%	18.3478%	54110
8	22.6182%	10.3628%	30561
9	2.2168%	0.7846%	2314
10	0.6736%	0.4008%	1182

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.0907%	0.1682%	496
6	4.7355%	4.9571%	14619
7	36.5138%	18.9423%	55863
8	42.7166%	19.2349%	56726
9	15.6916%	6.5386%	19283
10	0.2518%	0.1590%	469

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	16.3804%	9.3669%	27624
5	12.4002%	5.3168%	15680
6	14.1024%	7.1530%	21095
7	12.0409%	5.1812%	15280
8	13.4141%	5.7410%	16931
9	21.2046%	11.6442%	34340
10	10.4575%	5.5969%	16506

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
7	0.0892%	0.0644%	190
8	10.5344%	4.0046%	11810
9	29.5725%	13.2290%	39014
10	48.0911%	24.7375%	72954
11	11.7128%	7.9644%	23488

Notre Dame - 99.9899% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	4.2175%	1.6486%	4862
5	8.9662%	5.4260%	16002
6	9.0639%	4.4430%	13103
7	3.2761%	1.7822%	5256
8	2.3485%	2.0020%	5904
9	24.0582%	11.8035%	34810
10	31.6538%	12.2674%	36178
11	10.4169%	5.4165%	15974
12	5.2570%	4.0307%	11887
13	0.3855%	0.5934%	1750
14	0.3288%	0.4035%	1190
15	0.0173%	0.0163%	48
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0008%	0.0288%	85
14	0.0066%	0.1244%	367
15	0.0028%	0.0136%	40

New Hampshire - 99.9738% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	0.0152%	0.0027%	8
5	2.7490%	2.2108%	6520
6	13.2314%	7.0343%	20745
7	2.7386%	1.8195%	5366
8	0.7540%	0.9942%	2932
9	0.3158%	0.2987%	881
10	3.2369%	3.0470%	8986
11	44.2749%	18.2980%	53963
12	23.4865%	10.1074%	29808
13	7.4976%	4.3813%	12921
14	1.5183%	1.4703%	4336
15	0.1558%	0.1373%	405
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0017%	0.0420%	124
14	0.0235%	0.1428%	421
15	0.0010%	0.0136%	40

Colorado College - 86.9330% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.2070%	0.1238%	365
11	5.9006%	3.2366%	9545
12	24.8885%	10.9911%	32414
13	17.2339%	8.1289%	23973
14	33.7560%	6.9923%	20621
15	4.9471%	1.2424%	3664
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0402%	0.5001%	1475
14	1.7807%	5.1290%	15126
15	4.8259%	7.4148%	21867
16	6.4201%	6.2412%	18406

Nebraska-Omaha - 86.8446% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
12	17.9782%	3.9246%	11574
13	37.7340%	12.1348%	35787
14	19.1131%	7.3975%	21816
15	12.0194%	3.0663%	9043
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0682%	0.9457%	2789
14	1.4951%	5.3382%	15743
15	7.0656%	12.2138%	36020
16	4.5264%	4.9791%	14684

Rensselaer - 65.5188% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	0.2550%	0.4578%	1350
12	3.1521%	3.4403%	10146
13	14.1661%	10.4923%	30943
14	24.8406%	10.8100%	31880
15	23.1051%	2.9646%	8743
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0794%	1.1488%	3388
14	1.9254%	5.9021%	17406
15	16.2587%	11.1484%	32878
16	15.5280%	3.5417%	10445
17	0.6897%	0.0939%	277

Western Michigan - 61.1083% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	4.8413%	3.0362%	8954
11	18.9232%	10.9972%	32432
12	13.8875%	9.7260%	28683
13	14.0964%	7.6467%	22551
14	3.8177%	1.7473%	5153
15	5.5422%	0.5981%	1764
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0171%	0.3255%	960
14	0.2268%	0.5100%	1504
15	1.8031%	1.4150%	4173
16	6.6356%	3.1196%	9200
17	21.4836%	7.2808%	21472
18	8.2477%	3.0653%	9040
19	0.4778%	0.5324%	1570

Dartmouth - 45.5123% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.0394%	0.0244%	72
11	8.5167%	3.6296%	10704
12	11.3504%	7.7799%	22944
13	8.6767%	3.4977%	10315
14	9.1262%	2.1379%	6305
15	7.8030%	0.7945%	2343
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0023%	0.1339%	395
14	0.1527%	1.4099%	4158
15	6.0872%	3.5773%	10550
16	22.4116%	8.5442%	25198
17	14.9004%	4.6895%	13830
18	4.9523%	3.9829%	11746
19	4.1564%	4.8520%	14309
20	1.5051%	4.6075%	13588
21	0.2630%	0.2747%	810
22	0.0566%	0.0641%	189

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0527%	0.7812%	2304
15	2.8293%	4.6875%	13824
16	33.8447%	7.0312%	20736
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
19	0.0011%	0.0020%	6
20	0.0155%	0.0302%	89
21	5.0879%	1.7032%	5023
22	9.5204%	3.1708%	9351
23	15.7614%	3.4136%	10067
24	5.1922%	2.5920%	7644
25	0.8028%	1.0301%	3038
26	0.5112%	0.7884%	2325
27	2.6351%	1.0634%	3136
28	14.3743%	7.1370%	21048
29	26.4467%	14.8105%	43678
30	16.9792%	11.0321%	32535
31	2.6724%	3.2267%	9516

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0482%	0.7812%	2304
15	2.5876%	4.6875%	13824
16	30.9529%	7.0312%	20736
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	0.0033%	0.0061%	18
21	2.3643%	0.9349%	2757
22	4.8771%	0.9925%	2927
23	7.1243%	1.6025%	4726
24	1.4356%	0.9884%	2915
25	13.0416%	5.4053%	15941
26	3.5888%	2.1040%	6205
27	3.2308%	1.7168%	5063
28	9.7553%	4.8330%	14253
29	17.8328%	7.8366%	23111
30	32.5460%	15.0723%	44450
31	4.2003%	8.5076%	25090

Bemidji State - 28.8741% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.2098%	3.1250%	9216
14	5.0846%	12.5000%	36864
15	23.5797%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
17	0.0003%	0.0007%	2
18	6.4240%	5.7017%	16815
19	6.1377%	5.3446%	15762
20	16.3486%	13.9804%	41230
21	6.2184%	1.7721%	5226
22	41.4939%	12.9191%	38100
23	22.4673%	9.4211%	27784
24	0.8495%	0.5931%	1749
25	0.0603%	0.2672%	788

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.4669%	3.1250%	9216
16	16.6645%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
37	1.8358%	1.5957%	4706
38	6.5837%	3.8106%	11238
39	8.7207%	7.1313%	21031
40	21.6906%	12.4240%	36640
41	61.1692%	25.0383%	73841

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.3421%	3.1250%	9216
16	12.2111%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
42	12.1249%	12.2976%	36267
43	0.4283%	0.2024%	597
45	49.1217%	23.3409%	68835
46	37.7546%	12.9710%	38253
47	0.5705%	1.1882%	3504

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.5830%	3.1250%	9216
15	10.4888%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	5.6943%	5.2165%	15384
21	4.3272%	6.0147%	17738
22	1.0426%	1.2651%	3731
23	0.0077%	0.0037%	11
24	0.2637%	0.1275%	376
25	2.7837%	1.0800%	3185
26	15.3484%	8.2489%	24327
27	29.8824%	10.6089%	31287
28	16.3277%	5.1975%	15328
29	12.7743%	2.9538%	8711
30	6.8655%	4.4966%	13261
31	3.9700%	3.4163%	10075
32	0.7126%	1.3706%	4042

Boston University - 5.6806% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	1.4855%	0.2635%	777
15	4.1952%	0.5134%	1514
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.1879%	0.1797%	530
15	5.5515%	4.6668%	13763
16	41.4502%	21.5234%	63475
17	47.1298%	22.8533%	67397

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0426%	1.5625%	4608
15	1.6213%	6.2500%	18432
16	3.6013%	4.6875%	13824
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
23	0.0001%	0.0020%	6
24	0.0939%	0.2960%	873
25	0.3872%	1.2092%	3566
26	1.1898%	2.9236%	8622
27	1.8869%	4.0856%	12049
28	1.5297%	3.5390%	10437
29	0.3774%	0.9142%	2696
30	4.7189%	5.1782%	15271
31	8.1643%	6.8522%	20208
32	9.2847%	2.2102%	6518
33	27.8182%	7.0465%	20781
34	44.5489%	15.7433%	46429

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
16	2.7255%	12.5000%	36864
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
45	1.8196%	6.2368%	18393
46	0.9060%	6.2632%	18471
49	97.2745%	37.5000%	110592

Maine - 0.5019% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.2028%	0.0278%	82
15	0.2991%	0.0420%	124
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0123%	0.0139%	41
15	0.3199%	0.1617%	477
16	3.0281%	2.0508%	6048
17	15.7934%	15.0781%	44467
18	67.6333%	26.1393%	77088
19	11.6311%	5.8092%	17132
20	1.0800%	0.6772%	1997