Overall predictions - Bemidji and Alaska-Anchorage Win Play-ins

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Miami100.0000%4
Michigan100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%6
Union100.0000%8
Merrimack100.0000%9
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%10
Notre Dame99.9974%10
New Hampshire99.9757%11
Nebraska-Omaha97.3506%13
Rensselaer95.9073%14
Western Michigan71.7762%11
Dartmouth60.8080%12
RIT55.3562%16
Air Force24.7723%16
Colorado College21.1064%15
Boston University16.3891%15
Holy Cross12.0521%16
Cornell11.0941%15
Bemidji State8.3567%15
Alaska-Anchorage8.2760%14
Connecticut7.8194%16
Northeastern5.2644%16
Colgate2.7222%16
Maine0.9760%14

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.4017%51.4350%151688
24.6396%23.1656%68318
35.9477%25.0702%73935
40.0110%0.3293%971

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.6251%31.0018%91428
265.6271%42.2133%124492
327.7478%26.7849%78992

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
13.9732%17.5632%51796
229.7316%34.5629%101930
359.8346%40.7969%120315
46.4605%7.0770%20871

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
34.4353%6.3273%18660
427.2071%27.8107%82017
521.4668%22.8360%67346
620.8213%17.6327%52001
711.9022%7.6969%22699
88.4097%8.1872%24145
95.2858%8.4602%24950
100.4718%1.0491%3094

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
20.0017%0.0583%172
32.0346%1.0206%3010
436.0613%33.3330%98303
529.2381%30.2741%89282
615.0885%13.4210%39580
711.4045%9.4547%27883
84.3543%9.3557%27591
91.6117%2.6696%7873
100.2052%0.4130%1218

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
411.1424%10.5672%31164
529.5645%26.0634%76864
630.2961%29.2809%86353
720.5723%23.5029%69313
87.6127%9.6086%28337
90.7754%0.8572%2528
100.0368%0.1197%353

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0520%0.1862%549
64.1237%9.2051%27147
729.0915%34.6449%102172
849.4278%41.7318%123072
916.3714%13.7095%40431
100.9336%0.5225%1541

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations 416.3757%18.7320%55243 511.6008%10.5079%30989 615.2734%14.3297%42260 713.2245%11.4794%33854 816.2125%12.3152%36319 919.9479%22.6542%66810 107.3310%9.9630%29382 110.0342%0.0186%55

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
70.0670%0.1773%523
86.2447%6.6579%19635
929.8368%26.8429%79163
1051.7805%50.4442%148766
1112.0711%15.8776%46825

Notre Dame - 99.9974% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
42.6991%2.1281%6276
56.8851%7.9776%23527
68.9123%9.0881%26802
76.2454%6.5301%19258
83.7721%5.1954%15322
925.0992%23.4277%69091
1030.1831%24.2764%71594
119.7724%9.4476%27862
125.7902%8.7358%25763
130.6127%2.9639%8741
140.0259%0.0865%255
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0012%0.1156%341
140.0014%0.0271%80

New Hampshire - 99.9757% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
40.0429%0.0227%67
51.1928%2.1549%6355
65.4847%7.0424%20769
77.4928%6.5138%19210
83.9662%6.9482%20491
91.0717%1.3787%4066
103.7776%6.6762%19689
1146.4712%35.9673%106072
1219.5535%18.8277%55525
138.2841%11.2030%33039
142.6384%2.6900%7933
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0033%0.3011%888
140.0210%0.2740%808

Nebraska-Omaha - 97.3506% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1215.8831%7.0777%20873
1344.0323%33.4245%98573
1426.4085%24.8891%73401
1511.0267%8.6772%25590
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0317%1.1515%3396
140.7242%12.2854%36231
151.6576%11.5336%34014
160.2358%0.9610%2834

Rensselaer - 95.9073% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0015%0.0170%50
110.7884%3.2010%9440
1214.2139%19.9853%58939
1329.2839%29.2555%86278
1439.4860%26.6866%78702
1512.1335%5.5881%16480
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0161%1.0044%2962
140.4477%4.2748%12607
151.2797%7.6901%22679
161.9138%2.1505%6342
170.3586%0.1129%333
180.0762%0.0336%99
190.0006%0.0003%1

Western Michigan - 71.7762% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
105.2790%6.5189%19225
1121.9881%27.3529%80667
1214.3609%21.3609%62996
1310.0167%9.6219%28376
147.4664%3.8357%11312
1512.6650%2.2329%6585
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0058%0.3476%1025
140.3161%2.1230%6261
152.4783%6.4002%18875
1613.7395%8.2547%24344
177.2027%5.4732%16141
184.1697%5.4586%16098
190.3118%1.0196%3007

Dartmouth - 60.8080% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
118.8746%8.1350%23991
1228.5261%21.5193%63463
135.0850%6.9828%20593
1412.4988%7.9505%23447
155.8235%2.2044%6501
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0026%0.2048%604
140.1245%2.5645%7563
152.7306%8.8091%25979
1612.7909%3.9656%11695
1711.3427%8.5843%25316
188.0313%11.3841%33573
192.7580%8.3686%24680
201.1508%6.8054%20070
210.2344%2.2125%6525
220.0263%0.3092%912

RIT - 55.3562% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0772%1.5472%4563
154.2596%9.3757%27650
1651.0195%14.0771%41515
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0019%0.0027%8
2115.0375%5.8445%17236
2219.6840%6.2853%18536
2314.3819%6.6640%19653
245.2575%3.8622%11390
250.4402%1.1475%3384
260.6262%1.5778%4653
272.6069%3.9646%11692
2812.4232%16.2679%47976
2917.3016%27.8531%82142
3010.2714%20.4329%60259
311.9676%6.0978%17983

Air Force - 24.7723% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0355%1.5625%4608
151.9075%9.3750%27648
1622.8293%14.0625%41472
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0031%0.0129%38
214.2659%4.0992%12089
2211.1605%6.3439%18709
231.5828%1.6113%4752
243.0656%3.9571%11670
253.3788%6.1456%18124
261.1444%2.5689%7576
271.9364%3.5017%10327
2812.2801%10.1271%29866
2924.1702%15.1469%44670
3033.7951%31.3819%92549
313.2172%15.1035%44542

Colorado College - 21.1064% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0980%0.0132%39
141.5986%0.3286%969
1519.4098%4.2759%12610
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0819%0.1014%299
1510.8569%21.8740%64509
1635.9971%45.4268%133969
1729.7997%23.0509%67980
182.1581%4.9293%14537

Boston University - 16.3891% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.5609%0.3842%1133
143.7698%2.7235%8032
1512.0583%2.7683%8164
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.4191%2.6927%7941
155.3965%10.0640%29680
1630.5175%28.5024%84057
1741.4085%42.6131%125671
185.7843%10.0081%29515
190.0849%0.2438%719

Holy Cross - 12.0521% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3281%6.2500%18432
1611.7240%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
371.4297%3.6692%10821
385.0208%7.8939%23280
395.6482%13.6522%40262
4026.7686%24.7247%72916
4161.1328%50.0600%147633

Cornell - 11.0941% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.5840%6.2500%18432
1510.5101%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
213.8840%9.4859%27975
226.2384%10.7042%31568
230.9830%4.7858%14114
241.1408%1.0505%3098
254.7544%2.7289%8048
2613.9425%16.7162%49298
2726.5495%19.8120%58428
2816.3415%9.7578%28777
2915.0305%6.2436%18413
306.1541%8.3944%24756
313.5030%6.6481%19606
321.3823%3.3362%9839
330.0960%0.3364%992

Bemidji State - 8.3567% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0608%3.1250%9216
141.4730%12.5000%36864
156.8229%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
180.3219%2.0983%6188
191.7450%4.3443%12812
204.1910%10.8561%32016
213.6345%9.4303%27811
2217.0539%15.2578%44997
2314.3576%15.3697%45327
2420.5398%8.7935%25933
2510.4938%12.5736%37081
2622.0104%16.3520%48224
275.6345%4.7692%14065
280.0176%0.1553%458

Alaska-Anchorage - 8.2760% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
121.6723%2.4933%7353
131.7147%2.9243%8624
143.3784%5.5369%16329
151.5105%2.2298%6576
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0183%0.5096%1503
150.3537%4.3379%12793
161.6286%6.9682%20550
181.2426%5.3419%15754
1946.0697%34.1180%100618
2035.6497%22.1530%65332
216.4382%12.7984%37744
220.3233%0.5887%1736

Connecticut - 7.8194% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2129%6.2500%18432
167.6066%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
427.4890%24.5351%72357
430.3304%0.4649%1371
4529.0894%40.2669%118752
4662.0440%30.4440%89783
471.0473%4.2891%12649

Northeastern - 5.2644% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0306%3.1403%9261
151.1354%12.4993%36862
164.0985%9.3604%27605
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.0320%0.2112%623
230.0070%0.1234%364
240.6486%2.7951%8243
251.0817%4.6566%13733
261.0928%5.5315%16313
271.4433%6.7895%20023
280.9367%4.6522%13720
290.1413%0.8497%2506
303.5358%8.9576%26417
319.4238%15.4331%45514
320.8759%1.0145%2992
3336.0868%14.1500%41730
3444.6943%34.8355%102734

Colgate - 2.7222% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7222%25.0000%73728
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
452.0827%12.1965%35969
460.6216%12.5977%37152
470.0180%0.2058%607
4997.2778%75.0000%221184

Maine - 0.9760% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.2510%0.1017%300
140.5289%0.2726%804
150.1962%0.1485%438
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0461%0.1475%435
150.4231%1.1661%3439
163.1767%3.7710%11121
179.8876%20.1650%59469
1876.0965%56.0496%165297
199.0466%16.8603%49723
200.3471%1.3156%3880
210.0002%0.0020%6