Overall predictions - Bemidji and Colorado College Win Play-ins

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Michigan100.0000%4
Miami100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%6
Union100.0000%8
Merrimack100.0000%9
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%10
Notre Dame99.9928%10
New Hampshire99.9917%11
Nebraska-Omaha91.3629%13
Colorado College89.7099%14
Rensselaer68.8858%15
Western Michigan64.4591%11
RIT55.3562%16
Dartmouth51.0506%14
Air Force24.7723%16
Holy Cross12.0521%16
Cornell11.0941%15
Bemidji State8.2601%15
Connecticut7.8194%16
Boston University6.5626%15
Northeastern5.2644%16
Colgate2.7222%16
Maine0.6436%15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.4492%52.0315%153447
24.7600%23.0187%67885
35.7860%24.7935%73119
40.0049%0.1563%461

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.4468%30.5542%90108
264.8441%42.7260%126004
328.7091%26.7198%78800

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
14.1041%17.4143%51357
230.3950%34.2197%100918
359.0284%41.1469%121347
46.4725%7.2191%21290

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
20.0009%0.0356%105
32.0303%0.9009%2657
436.1276%33.4883%98761
529.3466%30.4420%89777
615.1687%13.3470%39362
711.1447%9.2434%27260
84.2746%9.2455%27266
91.6326%2.7147%8006
100.2739%0.5825%1718

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
34.4462%6.4389%18989
427.2063%27.6588%81569
521.3629%22.7915%67215
620.8233%17.5886%51871
711.9147%7.6250%22487
88.0180%7.5477%22259
95.7177%9.1980%27126
100.5109%1.1515%3396

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
411.1477%10.4970%30957
529.4177%25.5832%75448
630.2635%28.4899%84020
720.2918%23.5304%69394
87.9924%10.7140%31597
90.6855%0.7846%2314
100.2015%0.4008%1182

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0262%0.1682%496
63.9848%8.9918%26518
725.3607%31.3653%92500
852.9269%44.7818%132067
916.4661%13.9126%41030
101.2354%0.7802%2301

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
416.3753%18.7429%55275
511.9087%10.5950%31246
614.9846%14.3205%42233
716.9056%14.9390%44057
815.9040%12.3349%36377
919.0969%22.3317%65859
104.8249%6.7359%19865

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
70.0279%0.0644%190
84.1155%4.4105%13007
928.6799%25.5619%75385
1054.7726%53.6679%158273
1112.4041%16.2954%48057

Notre Dame - 99.9928% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
42.6602%2.2349%6591
56.8869%8.1156%23934
68.9539%9.0315%26635
76.0300%6.1215%18053
83.8318%5.7339%16910
926.6423%24.4191%72015
1029.0622%23.2635%68607
119.3635%9.3140%27468
125.9409%9.2255%27207
130.3652%1.3923%4106
140.2433%0.8077%2382
150.0128%0.0326%96
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0002%0.0288%85
140.0049%0.2519%743
150.0021%0.0271%80

New Hampshire - 99.9917% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
40.0055%0.0027%8
51.0510%2.3044%6796
65.8212%8.2306%24273
78.3247%7.1109%20971
82.9369%5.2317%15429
91.0789%1.0773%3177
103.8144%6.8315%20147
1144.7736%36.1498%106610
1223.5273%20.6509%60902
137.2001%8.8504%26101
141.3311%3.0524%9002
150.1271%0.2845%839
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0005%0.0420%124
140.0071%0.1536%453
150.0007%0.0271%80

Nebraska-Omaha - 91.3629% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1217.2988%6.3063%18598
1340.8478%26.7877%79000
1419.8104%18.0728%53299
1513.4058%8.7687%25860
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0194%0.9457%2789
140.5918%7.3663%21724
154.0105%21.7787%64228
164.0153%9.9738%29414

Colorado College - 89.7099% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.1530%0.2462%726
114.3645%6.4945%19153
1225.0975%22.5013%66359
1315.2563%16.5541%48820
1437.8491%18.5774%54787
156.9895%4.5620%13454
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0114%0.5001%1475
140.6894%6.4826%19118
152.7958%12.1999%35979
166.7935%11.8818%35041

Rensselaer - 68.8858% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.2435%0.6619%1952
122.7959%6.6538%19623
1312.8771%20.8445%61473
1421.1024%24.3364%71771
1531.8669%8.8704%26160
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0231%1.1488%3388
140.6794%7.8796%23238
1510.1841%20.0290%59068
1618.9948%9.2231%27200
171.2327%0.3523%1039

Western Michigan - 64.4591% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
105.1221%6.2910%18553
1120.2367%23.8193%70246
1213.8999%19.3169%56968
1314.2147%15.2659%45021
144.1886%3.7499%11059
156.7972%1.5110%4456
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0049%0.3255%960
140.0984%0.7551%2227
151.1942%2.5638%7561
165.9955%5.6881%16775
1718.4607%12.8740%37967
189.6495%7.3069%21549
190.1377%0.5324%1570

RIT - 55.3562% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0772%1.5469%4562
154.2478%9.3580%27598
1651.0312%14.0951%41568
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0005%0.0020%6
200.0120%0.0417%123
2116.5891%6.3151%18624
2218.8186%6.2039%18296
2314.0187%6.4609%19054
244.9450%3.5906%10589
250.4516%1.3350%3937
260.5843%1.4438%4258
272.0613%2.2905%6755
2811.4227%14.8095%43675
2918.6938%29.7852%87840
3010.4121%21.4627%63296
311.9903%6.2592%18459

Dartmouth - 51.0506% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0292%0.0488%144
118.6142%7.2652%21426
1211.4397%15.3453%45255
139.1788%7.1801%21175
1411.5810%5.6675%16714
1510.2077%2.4651%7270
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0006%0.1339%395
140.0581%1.9172%5654
152.8797%6.5884%19430
1624.8035%17.8501%52642
1711.5009%9.3252%27501
185.7014%10.5696%31171
193.4025%10.1213%29849
200.4970%5.0836%14992
210.0877%0.3743%1104
220.0179%0.0644%190

Air Force - 24.7723% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0355%1.5625%4608
151.9075%9.3750%27648
1622.8293%14.0625%41472
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0033%0.0149%44
214.4322%4.3620%12864
2210.8126%5.7451%16943
231.7793%1.9409%5724
243.3265%4.4315%13069
253.2401%5.7953%17091
260.9493%2.2451%6621
271.9080%3.3664%9928
2811.0480%9.7161%28654
2925.4041%15.5399%45829
3033.6733%30.8750%91054
313.4232%15.9678%47091

Holy Cross - 12.0521% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3281%6.2500%18432
1611.7240%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
371.6396%3.7625%11096
385.1096%8.1689%24091
395.3517%13.3023%39230
4026.7559%24.6894%72812
4161.1431%50.0770%147683

Cornell - 11.0941% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.5840%6.2500%18432
1510.5101%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
208.2669%14.8132%43686
212.2349%8.2937%24459
220.6642%1.9494%5749
230.2926%0.0448%132
241.6706%1.3234%3903
255.0480%3.4807%10265
2613.1601%15.8820%46838
2724.3069%19.1715%56539
2819.2852%10.5455%31100
2914.5904%6.0869%17951
305.7535%8.6134%25402
313.7146%6.7356%19864
320.9951%3.0039%8859
330.0169%0.0559%165

Bemidji State - 8.2601% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0601%3.1250%9216
141.4559%12.5000%36864
156.7441%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.0001%0.0007%2
181.8962%5.7017%16815
191.7272%5.3446%15762
204.6438%13.9804%41230
211.9787%1.7721%5226
2216.2398%14.6396%43174
2314.8927%15.6701%46213
2419.5700%8.3967%24763
2511.1847%12.8760%37973
2622.0640%16.4954%48647
275.7725%4.9459%14586
280.0303%0.1767%521

Connecticut - 7.8194% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2129%6.2500%18432
167.6066%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
427.4783%24.5188%72309
430.3411%0.4812%1419
4530.1286%40.8251%120398
4661.0321%30.0964%88758
471.0198%4.0785%12028

Boston University - 6.5626% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.4777%0.6544%1930
155.0849%1.4943%4407
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0509%0.1797%530
153.7602%8.3221%24543
1636.1254%41.1309%121300
1752.7318%47.6579%140549
180.7690%0.5605%1653

Northeastern - 5.2644% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0306%3.1406%9262
151.1471%12.5170%36914
164.0867%9.3424%27552
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.1096%0.7029%2073
230.0202%0.2411%711
240.6552%2.6540%7827
250.9233%3.9473%11641
261.0498%5.3304%15720
271.4697%6.5782%19400
280.9975%5.1015%15045
290.1739%1.1892%3507
303.7159%9.5740%28235
319.2278%14.6813%43297
322.3361%2.2244%6560
3336.2064%15.2805%45064
3443.1146%32.4951%95832

Colgate - 2.7222% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7222%25.0000%73728
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
452.1024%12.2830%36224
460.6061%12.5580%37035
470.0137%0.1590%469
4997.2778%75.0000%221184

Maine - 0.6436% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2331%0.0814%240
150.4105%0.1363%402
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0032%0.0139%41
150.2702%0.3387%999
163.2719%4.2521%12540
1716.0725%29.7855%87841
1871.1278%54.4847%160682
198.2747%10.2302%30170
200.3360%0.6772%1997