Prediction if Boston College wins its Semifinal
All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.
Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 1 | 89.2884% | 25.0000% | 73728 |
| 2 | 5.0456% | 14.7454% | 43486 |
| 3 | 5.6605% | 10.1145% | 29829 |
| 4 | 0.0056% | 0.1400% | 413 |
North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 1 | 5.9617% | 10.9375% | 32256 |
| 2 | 58.7712% | 15.6877% | 46265 |
| 3 | 35.2671% | 23.3748% | 68935 |
Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 1 | 4.7500% | 14.0625% | 41472 |
| 2 | 36.1821% | 19.5312% | 57600 |
| 3 | 56.5830% | 15.6250% | 46080 |
| 4 | 2.4849% | 0.7812% | 2304 |
Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 2 | 0.0011% | 0.0356% | 105 |
| 3 | 2.4894% | 0.8847% | 2609 |
| 4 | 37.5539% | 16.3133% | 48110 |
| 5 | 28.4778% | 14.9509% | 44092 |
| 6 | 14.2298% | 6.7488% | 19903 |
| 7 | 11.2509% | 4.7947% | 14140 |
| 8 | 4.1643% | 4.6702% | 13773 |
| 9 | 1.6336% | 1.3482% | 3976 |
| 10 | 0.1992% | 0.2536% | 748 |
Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 3 | 0.0000% | 0.0010% | 3 |
| 4 | 31.8588% | 17.0315% | 50228 |
| 5 | 22.1028% | 11.1318% | 32829 |
| 6 | 20.2441% | 8.5419% | 25191 |
| 7 | 11.5921% | 4.2925% | 12659 |
| 8 | 8.3427% | 4.2870% | 12643 |
| 9 | 5.6218% | 4.4620% | 13159 |
| 10 | 0.2376% | 0.2523% | 744 |
Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 4 | 11.3564% | 5.2856% | 15588 |
| 5 | 29.4865% | 12.5610% | 37044 |
| 6 | 30.2427% | 13.6637% | 40296 |
| 7 | 20.2566% | 11.9673% | 35293 |
| 8 | 7.8067% | 5.7797% | 17045 |
| 9 | 0.6223% | 0.4493% | 1325 |
| 10 | 0.2288% | 0.2933% | 865 |
Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 5 | 0.0353% | 0.1682% | 496 |
| 6 | 3.8809% | 4.2321% | 12481 |
| 7 | 25.5044% | 15.1279% | 44614 |
| 8 | 52.6629% | 22.8553% | 67403 |
| 9 | 16.6415% | 6.9241% | 20420 |
| 10 | 1.2749% | 0.6924% | 2042 |
Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 4 | 13.9255% | 9.3716% | 27638 |
| 5 | 11.9385% | 5.9038% | 17411 |
| 6 | 16.6520% | 6.9658% | 20543 |
| 7 | 17.3203% | 6.2046% | 18298 |
| 8 | 17.5219% | 6.6864% | 19719 |
| 9 | 18.2442% | 11.4766% | 33846 |
| 10 | 4.3975% | 3.3912% | 10001 |
Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 7 | 0.0286% | 0.0176% | 52 |
| 8 | 4.8323% | 1.9972% | 5890 |
| 9 | 28.5194% | 12.5529% | 37020 |
| 10 | 56.1356% | 27.2447% | 80348 |
| 11 | 10.4841% | 8.1875% | 24146 |
Notre Dame - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 4 | 2.8090% | 1.0739% | 3167 |
| 5 | 6.8358% | 3.8144% | 11249 |
| 6 | 8.9816% | 4.7401% | 13979 |
| 7 | 6.1109% | 3.2413% | 9559 |
| 8 | 3.7103% | 2.7849% | 8213 |
| 9 | 27.8736% | 12.3322% | 36369 |
| 10 | 29.1090% | 12.6723% | 37372 |
| 11 | 8.9824% | 4.9184% | 14505 |
| 12 | 5.0542% | 3.6072% | 10638 |
| 13 | 0.3043% | 0.5008% | 1477 |
| 14 | 0.2160% | 0.2984% | 880 |
| 15 | 0.0129% | 0.0163% | 48 |
New Hampshire - 99.9924% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 4 | 0.0059% | 0.0027% | 8 |
| 5 | 1.1232% | 1.4699% | 4335 |
| 6 | 5.7688% | 5.1076% | 15063 |
| 7 | 7.9362% | 4.3542% | 12841 |
| 8 | 0.9588% | 0.9393% | 2770 |
| 9 | 0.8435% | 0.4547% | 1341 |
| 10 | 2.7268% | 1.5991% | 4716 |
| 11 | 43.3024% | 12.6180% | 37212 |
| 12 | 27.1339% | 13.4393% | 39634 |
| 13 | 8.4456% | 7.1120% | 20974 |
| 14 | 1.5902% | 2.5648% | 7564 |
| 15 | 0.1572% | 0.2574% | 759 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.0076% | 0.0810% | 239 |
Nebraska-Omaha - 92.7891% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 12 | 17.5295% | 3.5929% | 10596 |
| 13 | 41.1187% | 14.8549% | 43809 |
| 14 | 20.0065% | 10.9263% | 32223 |
| 15 | 14.1344% | 5.8261% | 17182 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.2723% | 1.6595% | 4894 |
| 15 | 2.8680% | 8.1740% | 24106 |
| 16 | 4.0705% | 4.9662% | 14646 |
Colorado College - 90.9913% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 10 | 0.1950% | 0.2333% | 688 |
| 11 | 5.3584% | 4.9076% | 14473 |
| 12 | 24.8406% | 10.3763% | 30601 |
| 13 | 15.4811% | 8.3099% | 24507 |
| 14 | 37.9502% | 11.0840% | 32688 |
| 15 | 7.1659% | 3.0385% | 8961 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.3866% | 2.0003% | 5899 |
| 15 | 2.1287% | 4.7787% | 14093 |
| 16 | 6.4934% | 5.2714% | 15546 |
Rensselaer - 69.4249% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 11 | 0.2374% | 0.3208% | 946 |
| 12 | 2.5797% | 3.3908% | 10000 |
| 13 | 11.9090% | 9.1359% | 26943 |
| 14 | 20.7623% | 12.9093% | 38071 |
| 15 | 33.9367% | 5.9482% | 17542 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.4356% | 1.7005% | 5015 |
| 15 | 9.6756% | 10.5360% | 31072 |
| 16 | 19.5686% | 5.9502% | 17548 |
| 17 | 0.8953% | 0.1082% | 319 |
Western Michigan - 64.6924% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 10 | 5.4588% | 3.3298% | 9820 |
| 11 | 21.6447% | 13.8719% | 40910 |
| 12 | 12.7802% | 9.0691% | 26746 |
| 13 | 13.5589% | 6.7593% | 19934 |
| 14 | 4.2606% | 1.9799% | 5839 |
| 15 | 6.9892% | 0.9908% | 2922 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.0558% | 0.1112% | 328 |
| 15 | 0.8924% | 0.8613% | 2540 |
| 16 | 5.9307% | 2.9514% | 8704 |
| 17 | 20.9958% | 7.6019% | 22419 |
| 18 | 7.4329% | 2.4733% | 7294 |
Dartmouth - 52.3338% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 10 | 0.0368% | 0.0380% | 112 |
| 11 | 9.9906% | 5.1758% | 15264 |
| 12 | 10.0820% | 6.5243% | 19241 |
| 13 | 9.1825% | 3.3271% | 9812 |
| 14 | 12.2480% | 3.5224% | 10388 |
| 15 | 10.7938% | 1.6941% | 4996 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.0437% | 0.5646% | 1665 |
| 15 | 2.7454% | 3.1355% | 9247 |
| 16 | 26.5760% | 10.1868% | 30042 |
| 17 | 11.9282% | 6.9278% | 20431 |
| 18 | 2.3088% | 1.2366% | 3647 |
| 19 | 3.3854% | 5.0917% | 15016 |
| 20 | 0.5680% | 2.4214% | 7141 |
| 21 | 0.0924% | 0.1268% | 374 |
| 22 | 0.0183% | 0.0271% | 80 |
RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 15 | 1.0010% | 3.1250% | 9216 |
| 16 | 35.7257% | 9.3750% | 27648 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 19 | 0.0002% | 0.0007% | 2 |
| 20 | 0.0076% | 0.0234% | 69 |
| 21 | 11.4902% | 3.4200% | 10086 |
| 22 | 13.9090% | 4.0165% | 11845 |
| 23 | 9.5560% | 3.4241% | 10098 |
| 24 | 1.5243% | 1.1848% | 3494 |
| 25 | 0.2393% | 0.4306% | 1270 |
| 26 | 0.0035% | 0.0193% | 57 |
| 27 | 2.9478% | 1.6741% | 4937 |
| 28 | 16.7163% | 9.9799% | 29432 |
| 29 | 27.7915% | 17.6843% | 52153 |
| 30 | 15.8141% | 8.1424% | 24013 |
Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 15 | 0.9155% | 3.1250% | 9216 |
| 16 | 32.6732% | 9.3750% | 27648 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 20 | 0.0030% | 0.0061% | 18 |
| 21 | 5.7026% | 2.1311% | 6285 |
| 22 | 14.1231% | 2.9348% | 8655 |
| 23 | 2.3497% | 0.9599% | 2831 |
| 24 | 4.5792% | 2.1512% | 6344 |
| 25 | 4.7466% | 2.6662% | 7863 |
| 26 | 1.5980% | 1.1776% | 3473 |
| 27 | 2.5272% | 2.0820% | 6140 |
| 28 | 10.5929% | 6.1293% | 18076 |
| 29 | 18.2008% | 8.9284% | 26331 |
| 30 | 35.5768% | 20.8333% | 61440 |
Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 15 | 0.4669% | 3.1250% | 9216 |
| 16 | 16.6645% | 9.3750% | 27648 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 37 | 1.3914% | 0.6161% | 1817 |
| 38 | 6.7848% | 3.3047% | 9746 |
| 39 | 8.9694% | 8.6060% | 25380 |
| 40 | 21.6650% | 12.3962% | 36558 |
| 41 | 61.1894% | 25.0770% | 73955 |
Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 15 | 0.3421% | 3.1250% | 9216 |
| 16 | 12.2111% | 9.3750% | 27648 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 42 | 11.9804% | 12.1833% | 35930 |
| 43 | 0.5728% | 0.3167% | 934 |
| 45 | 34.5276% | 19.5540% | 57667 |
| 46 | 52.0086% | 15.2859% | 45080 |
| 47 | 0.9105% | 2.6601% | 7845 |
Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 15 | 11.0718% | 12.5000% | 36864 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 20 | 7.4739% | 7.2489% | 21378 |
| 21 | 2.8290% | 4.2457% | 12521 |
| 22 | 0.8740% | 1.0420% | 3073 |
| 23 | 0.1727% | 0.0264% | 78 |
| 24 | 2.0519% | 0.7338% | 2164 |
| 25 | 4.9045% | 1.4879% | 4388 |
| 26 | 12.3877% | 7.6050% | 22428 |
| 27 | 24.5545% | 10.9999% | 32440 |
| 28 | 21.0165% | 5.2575% | 15505 |
| 29 | 13.6119% | 2.8761% | 8482 |
| 30 | 6.0716% | 5.7197% | 16868 |
| 31 | 3.6727% | 2.6201% | 7727 |
| 32 | 0.3791% | 0.1370% | 404 |
Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 1.2672% | 6.2500% | 18432 |
| 15 | 7.9170% | 6.2500% | 18432 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 17 | 0.0001% | 0.0007% | 2 |
| 18 | 2.0518% | 2.3638% | 6971 |
| 19 | 1.4817% | 2.4977% | 7366 |
| 20 | 5.6624% | 7.6487% | 22557 |
| 21 | 1.9716% | 0.8830% | 2604 |
| 22 | 17.7826% | 7.6226% | 22480 |
| 23 | 11.8596% | 6.5782% | 19400 |
| 24 | 20.5330% | 6.7529% | 19915 |
| 25 | 8.0269% | 4.5580% | 13442 |
| 26 | 24.8261% | 8.9484% | 26390 |
| 27 | 5.8041% | 2.1461% | 6329 |
Boston University - 6.7946% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 1.6991% | 0.4649% | 1371 |
| 15 | 5.0955% | 0.9786% | 2886 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.0656% | 0.1329% | 392 |
| 15 | 3.4042% | 3.7645% | 11102 |
| 16 | 35.8471% | 19.9039% | 58699 |
| 17 | 53.8886% | 24.7552% | 73006 |
Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 16 | 2.7255% | 12.5000% | 36864 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 45 | 1.7663% | 6.0849% | 17945 |
| 46 | 0.9360% | 6.2897% | 18549 |
| 47 | 0.0232% | 0.1255% | 370 |
| 49 | 97.2745% | 37.5000% | 110592 |