Prediction if Colgate wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
North Dakota100.0000%1
Boston College100.0000%2
Yale100.0000%3
Michigan100.0000%4
Miami100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%6
Union100.0000%8
Merrimack100.0000%9
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%10
Notre Dame99.9784%10
New Hampshire99.9387%11
Nebraska-Omaha76.7004%14
Rensselaer67.8593%14
Colorado College65.8684%14
Western Michigan62.9779%11
Dartmouth56.9438%12
RIT36.7267%16
Air Force33.5886%16
Cornell28.5601%15
Colgate25.4446%16
Holy Cross17.1314%16
Connecticut12.5532%16
Bemidji State9.1842%14
Northeastern5.2652%16
Boston University1.2790%14

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
159.6219%30.5542%90108
21.5970%2.1010%6196
338.7811%17.3448%51152

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
138.7922%17.4143%51357
253.5003%24.8447%73270
37.5569%7.5531%22275
40.1506%0.1879%554

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
11.5859%2.0315%5991
244.8943%23.0187%67885
353.4759%24.7935%73119
40.0439%0.1563%461

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
20.0084%0.0356%105
30.0353%0.1197%353
438.3096%17.0437%50264
529.9708%15.2693%45031
614.6908%6.4409%18995
710.7174%4.4217%13040
84.3314%4.8835%14402
91.6414%1.4581%4300
100.2948%0.3276%966

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
30.1507%0.1889%557
431.4995%16.8454%49679
521.7127%11.3671%33523
620.7942%8.6528%25518
711.6860%3.7204%10972
88.0384%3.6431%10744
95.6151%4.9720%14663
100.5034%0.6104%1800

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
410.8831%5.2334%15434
528.8245%12.7530%37610
630.4978%14.2592%42052
720.3035%11.6350%34313
88.5415%5.5257%16296
90.6366%0.3635%1072
100.3130%0.2302%679

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.1013%0.1227%362
64.4142%4.9021%14457
726.8429%16.6538%49114
851.1340%22.0822%65123
916.7418%6.0767%17921
100.7658%0.1624%479

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
416.3781%9.3645%27617
511.5847%5.2768%15562
615.1898%7.1604%21117
717.1828%7.3995%21822
815.7398%5.9441%17530
919.3629%11.6377%34321
104.5619%3.2169%9487

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
70.0054%0.0112%33
83.8419%2.0362%6005
928.1985%12.6519%37312
1055.4348%27.1081%79945
1112.5194%8.1926%24161

Notre Dame - 99.9784% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
42.7352%1.1688%3447
56.9878%4.0955%12078
68.7141%4.5047%13285
76.1154%2.8849%8508
83.8394%2.7106%7994
926.9890%12.5081%36888
1028.5517%11.3003%33326
119.1370%4.7292%13947
126.0352%4.8920%14427
130.5973%0.6321%1864
140.2764%0.3689%1088
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0019%0.0180%53
140.0197%0.1868%551

New Hampshire - 99.9387% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.8181%1.1156%3290
65.6992%4.0799%12032
77.1468%3.2735%9654
84.5337%3.1745%9362
90.8147%0.3320%979
104.1259%3.5811%10561
1139.5438%18.7205%55209
1224.0011%10.6476%31401
1310.8778%3.7971%11198
142.1507%1.1024%3251
150.2270%0.0617%182
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0044%0.0312%92
140.0569%0.0831%245

Nebraska-Omaha - 76.7004% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
126.7288%2.5791%7606
1326.1368%12.8493%37894
1427.8069%7.9220%23363
1516.0279%2.3102%6813
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0772%0.7067%2084
143.0674%5.1154%15086
1512.1176%13.3908%39491
168.0374%5.1266%15119

Rensselaer - 67.8593% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.7960%0.3842%1133
127.7079%3.3312%9824
1323.0511%10.2719%30293
1429.1776%11.3607%33504
157.1267%2.2973%6775
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.1041%0.8731%2575
141.7531%5.4620%16108
1517.2530%11.1172%32786
1612.8177%4.8482%14298
170.2129%0.0543%160

Colorado College - 65.8684% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.1843%0.1322%390
115.2738%3.5648%10513
1216.5576%11.2901%33296
1313.9901%6.8861%20308
1419.4104%6.4785%19106
1510.4522%1.7365%5121
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0470%0.3313%977
141.8052%3.8859%11460
1511.7211%7.7091%22735
1620.5584%7.9854%23550

Western Michigan - 62.9779% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
105.2644%3.3308%9823
1116.1709%11.7659%34699
1213.1850%9.7436%28735
1315.2540%7.0177%20696
147.9231%1.8165%5357
155.1805%0.4659%1374
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0198%0.2496%736
140.4328%0.4717%1391
153.0710%1.4459%4264
166.5626%2.7713%8173
1716.2673%6.8637%20242
1810.6219%3.8693%11411
190.0466%0.1882%555

Dartmouth - 56.9438% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1116.5591%2.6428%7794
1225.7844%7.5165%22167
139.8317%6.2022%18291
144.5112%3.5807%10560
150.2575%0.1302%384
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0068%0.1339%395
140.5050%1.9040%5615
153.1113%4.8055%14172
165.4676%7.1838%21186
1711.2314%4.0914%12066
182.2017%2.8642%8447
1917.7482%6.0771%17922
202.6508%2.6754%7890
210.1271%0.1770%522
220.0063%0.0153%45

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.4796%1.5469%4562
1510.2709%6.2425%18410
1625.9762%4.7106%13892
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0032%0.0020%6
200.0640%0.0397%117
217.8126%2.6659%7862
2210.8290%3.4217%10091
2310.6929%3.3027%9740
245.7434%1.9599%5780
250.6433%0.5469%1613
261.3440%0.9138%2695
275.0347%1.4269%4208
2821.1647%7.8010%23006
2924.5250%15.2137%44867
3010.5924%10.0182%29545
311.5507%2.6876%7926

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.4500%1.5625%4608
159.4150%6.2500%18432
1623.7236%4.6875%13824
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0368%0.0149%44
215.3897%2.2454%6622
2212.7393%3.4095%10055
231.5688%0.9471%2793
245.9464%1.7619%5196
255.3752%2.9392%8668
262.3904%1.0671%3147
274.2266%1.6378%4830
2813.3860%5.2222%15401
2921.8300%7.3873%21786
3023.0218%14.7349%43455
314.0891%8.6327%25459

Cornell - 28.5601% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.5038%3.1250%9216
1527.0564%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2015.9414%6.8726%20268
217.9863%4.4898%13241
224.6106%1.1386%3358
230.0252%0.0078%23
240.1931%0.4964%1464
250.5509%1.3658%4028
265.9325%9.2916%27402
2714.4238%11.0640%32629
286.2885%4.3939%12958
297.5946%2.0471%6037
3031.9693%6.0269%17774
314.4115%2.7676%8162
320.0723%0.0380%112

Colgate - 25.4446% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1625.4446%25.0000%73728
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4516.5337%12.2830%36224
468.7124%12.5580%37035
470.1984%0.1590%469
4974.5554%25.0000%73728

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
154.3590%6.2500%18432
1612.7724%6.2500%18432
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
370.8273%1.2566%3706
385.0320%3.6272%10697
3911.5177%7.8074%23025
4021.5265%12.3088%36300
4161.0966%25.0000%73728

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
153.1941%6.2500%18432
169.3591%6.2500%18432
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4212.5532%12.5000%36864
4539.1775%18.9440%55868
4640.1881%14.4775%42696
478.0812%4.0785%12028

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.2611%2.3438%6912
144.9212%7.8125%23040
154.0019%2.3438%6912
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.0008%0.0007%2
181.7519%2.7334%8061
191.2912%2.0884%6159
206.1425%7.6857%22666
211.1942%0.7389%2179
2214.9638%7.3442%21659
2320.9080%8.0075%23615
2417.9092%4.2260%12463
259.5017%6.7200%19818
2622.5824%8.0716%23804
273.7306%2.2651%6680
280.0237%0.1187%350

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.4101%3.1406%9262
152.1310%6.2575%18454
162.7241%3.1019%9148
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.1475%0.3238%955
230.0507%0.1970%581
240.7396%1.4577%4299
251.1108%2.1844%6442
261.1215%2.7825%8206
271.3029%3.2104%9468
280.7676%2.1169%6243
291.0592%0.6894%2033
304.9053%4.6048%13580
317.1432%7.4331%21921
322.9757%0.9861%2908
3318.8367%5.5678%16420
3459.8394%18.4462%54400

Boston University - 1.2790% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.9791%0.1828%539
150.2999%0.0295%87
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1245%0.0787%232
1513.0710%4.4752%13198
1643.4326%20.7991%61339
1742.0929%24.4347%72061