Prediction if Colorado College wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

Team	Likelihood	Most Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale	100.0000%	1
Boston College	100.0000%	2
North Dakota	100.0000%	3
Miami	100.0000%	4
Michigan	100.0000%	4
Denver	100.0000%	5
Union	100.0000%	8
Merrimack	100.0000%	9
Minnesota-Duluth	100.0000%	10
New Hampshire	99.9844%	11
Notre Dame	99.9745%	10
Colorado College	94.1160%	12
Rensselaer	86.9379%	14
Nebraska-Omaha	82.9804%	15
Western Michigan	51.6694%	11
Dartmouth	46.0080%	14
RIT	36.7267%	16
Air Force	33.5886%	16
Holy Cross	17.1314%	16
Bemidji State	13.5733%	15
Connecticut	12.5532%	16
Cornell	11.0718%	15
Boston University	5.5767%	15
Northeastern	5.2652%	16
Colgate	2.7255%	16
Maine	0.1169%	15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	89.6204%	26.4201%	77916
2	8.3381%	14.1598%	41759
3	2.0391%	9.3686%	27629
4	0.0023%	0.0515%	152

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	7.7891%	11.5784%	34146
2	48.8130%	15.6223%	46072
3	36.9042%	19.1427%	56454
4	6.4937%	3.6567%	10784

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	2.5905%	12.0015%	35394
2	42.8485%	20.2064%	59591
3	54.5610%	17.7921%	52471

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
3	4.4647%	3.2661%	9632
4	26.6817%	13.8645%	40888
5	19.8650%	11.4380%	33732
6	22.6019%	8.7497%	25804
7	12.6574%	3.8784%	11438
8	7.5943%	3.6272%	10697
9	5.5923%	4.5600%	13448
10	0.5426%	0.6161%	1817

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
2	0.0004%	0.0115%	34
3	2.0310%	0.4306%	1270
4	34.5897%	16.7670%	49448
5	29.1659%	15.2849%	45077
6	16.3494%	6.6742%	19683
7	11.6952%	4.5427%	13397
8	4.2670%	4.5922%	13543
9	1.6381%	1.3692%	4038
10	0.2633%	0.3276%	966

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	14.5133%	5.3999%	15925
5	33.1296%	13.3128%	39261
6	27.5078%	14.4521%	42621
7	16.9929%	11.2661%	33225
8	7.0899%	5.0486%	14889
9	0.3905%	0.2523%	744
10	0.3761%	0.2682%	791

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.0429%	0.0885%	261
6	4.0229%	4.5227%	13338
7	25.1581%	15.1069%	44552
8	52.8230%	22.8716%	67451
9	16.9500%	7.0411%	20765
10	1.0030%	0.3693%	1089

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	16.3801%	9.3757%	27650
5	11.8265%	5.2789%	15568
6	15.0352%	7.2184%	21288
7	17.6005%	8.2770%	24410
8	16.7595%	6.1103%	18020
9	18.4457%	11.0796%	32675
10	3.9525%	2.6601%	7845

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
7	0.0148%	0.0210%	62
8	2.9730%	1.7843%	5262
9	29.1341%	12.7153%	37499
10	55.4481%	27.3034%	80521
11	12.4301%	8.1760%	24112

New Hampshire - 99.9844% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.7749%	1.0023%	2956
6	5.7000%	3.8588%	11380
7	8.0952%	3.5197%	10380
8	3.5928%	2.9527%	8708
9	0.9592%	0.5615%	1656
10	3.9187%	3.5183%	10376
11	38.9307%	17.2587%	50898
12	23.8650%	9.5018%	28022
13	9.7601%	4.8577%	14326
14	3.9374%	2.5543%	7533
15	0.4505%	0.2845%	839
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0008%	0.0197%	58
14	0.0122%	0.0827%	244
15	0.0026%	0.0271%	80

Notre Dame - 99.9745% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	1.3391%	0.8847%	2609
5	5.1953%	3.5946%	10601
6	8.7827%	4.5241%	13342
7	7.7859%	3.3881%	9992
8	4.9004%	3.0131%	8886
9	26.8900%	12.4210%	36631
10	29.1938%	11.6058%	34227
11	9.0137%	4.4003%	12977
12	5.2780%	4.1409%	12212
13	0.6664%	0.8935%	2635
14	0.8828%	0.8077%	2382
15	0.0465%	0.0326%	96
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0004%	0.0146%	43
14	0.0177%	0.2519%	743
15	0.0075%	0.0271%	80

Colorado College - 94.1160% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.5552%	0.2462%	726
11	15.8385%	6.4945%	19153
12	43.1120%	17.7670%	52397
13	17.3198%	9.3143%	27469
14	13.8449%	5.0269%	14825
15	3.4456%	1.1549%	3406
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0136%	0.2336%	689
14	0.7184%	2.6550%	7830
15	2.2761%	4.1948%	12371
16	2.8760%	2.9127%	8590

Rensselaer - 86.9379% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	0.4363%	0.3747%	1105
12	2.8362%	2.9687%	8755
13	26.9812%	12.9974%	38331
14	37.0691%	15.2754%	45049
15	19.6151%	3.9086%	11527
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0472%	0.6300%	1858
14	1.1064%	4.4634%	13163
15	7.6896%	7.5195%	22176
16	4.2030%	1.8592%	5483
17	0.0159%	0.0031%	9

Nebraska-Omaha - 82.9804% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
12	2.0772%	1.2519%	3692
13	28.0935%	7.8247%	23076
14	23.9647%	8.7002%	25658
15	28.8450%	5.9682%	17601
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0278%	0.4381%	1292
14	1.0723%	3.7811%	11151
15	7.8112%	14.6111%	43090
16	8.1083%	7.4246%	21896

Western Michigan - 51.6694% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	4.6411%	3.0362%	8954
11	15.4258%	10.1057%	29803
12	12.5476%	8.2665%	24379
13	10.8971%	8.6443%	25493
14	3.7025%	1.9881%	5863
15	4.4553%	0.7697%	2270
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0081%	0.1628%	480
14	0.0391%	0.2865%	845
15	1.5093%	0.9549%	2816
16	7.6708%	4.0019%	11802
17	30.3474%	8.5585%	25240
18	8.5344%	2.9697%	8758
19	0.2215%	0.2553%	753

Dartmouth - 46.0080% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.1058%	0.0488%	144
11	7.9248%	3.1901%	9408
12	10.2840%	6.1032%	17999
13	6.1833%	3.9056%	11518
14	12.4850%	2.9168%	8602
15	9.0251%	1.1783%	3475
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0009%	0.0637%	188
14	0.0850%	0.9087%	2680
15	4.4255%	3.7130%	10950
16	29.5428%	10.5377%	31077
17	12.4781%	4.6187%	13621
18	3.5857%	4.7963%	14145
19	3.0313%	5.2538%	15494
20	0.7085%	2.5353%	7477
21	0.1110%	0.1889%	557
22	0.0233%	0.0410%	121

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0516%	0.7751%	2286
15	2.8246%	4.6831%	13811
16	33.8506%	7.0418%	20767
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
21	13.0799%	3.5024%	10329
22	10.9992%	2.9595%	8728
23	8.9673%	3.0541%	9007
24	2.9901%	1.7941%	5291
25	0.3512%	0.6504%	1918
26	0.4045%	0.7260%	2141
27	2.7223%	1.1854%	3496
28	14.8177%	7.2910%	21502
29	26.2751%	14.8685%	43849
30	16.7020%	10.7805%	31793
31	2.6906%	3.1881%	9402

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0482%	0.7812%	2304
15	2.5876%	4.6875%	13824
16	30.9529%	7.0312%	20736
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
21	6.9459%	2.6693%	7872
22	13.4807%	2.6191%	7724
23	2.6429%	1.2000%	3539
24	4.3870%	2.2108%	6520
25	4.8431%	2.7656%	8156
26	0.9424%	0.8501%	2507
27	2.6143%	1.6256%	4794
28	10.1319%	4.9493%	14596
29	17.4102%	7.8369%	23112
30	33.6621%	15.9536%	47049
31	2.9396%	7.3198%	21587

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.4669%	3.1250%	9216
16	16.6645%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
37	2.7636%	2.2444%	6619
38	7.4144%	4.4345%	13078
39	6.9847%	5.9323%	17495
40	21.5819%	12.3325%	36370
41	61.2554%	25.0563%	73894

Bemidji State - 13.5733% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0986%	1.5625%	4608
14	2.3902%	6.2500%	18432
15	11.0845%	4.6875%	13824
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
18	3.5750%	2.9419%	8676
19	2.5854%	2.6510%	7818
20	7.4128%	6.9071%	20370
21	1.5680%	0.5408%	1595
22	14.3428%	7.3931%	21803
23	12.5434%	7.8488%	23147
24	17.1824%	4.0768%	12023
25	10.9575%	6.3266%	18658
26	24.1590%	8.5961%	25351
27	5.6174%	2.6106%	7699
28	0.0563%	0.1072%	316

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.3421%	3.1250%	9216
16	12.2111%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
42	11.8223%	12.2148%	36023
43	0.7309%	0.2852%	841
45	36.4685%	20.9134%	61676
46	50.1491%	14.7122%	43388
47	0.8292%	1.8745%	5528

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.5830%	3.1250%	9216
15	10.4888%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	7.1908%	7.1272%	21019
21	2.7224%	4.2728%	12601
22	1.2195%	1.1152%	3289
23	0.1206%	0.0166%	49
24	1.9543%	0.6534%	1927
25	5.4748%	1.9050%	5618
26	12.0970%	7.4331%	21921
27	21.8909%	9.5086%	28042
28	24.2726%	5.7204%	16870
29	13.0735%	3.1172%	9193
30	6.1141%	4.6295%	13653
31	2.8796%	3.3240%	9803
32	0.9563%	1.1468%	3382
33	0.0336%	0.0302%	89

Boston University - 5.5767% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.9830%	0.2248%	663
15	4.5937%	0.7541%	2224
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0636%	0.0675%	199
15	5.6140%	4.8442%	14286
16	46.0981%	21.7248%	64069
17	42.5204%	22.3389%	65880
18	0.1272%	0.0458%	135

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0437%	1.5686%	4626
15	1.6260%	6.2544%	18445
16	3.5955%	4.6770%	13793
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
22	0.1056%	0.2336%	689
23	0.0201%	0.0885%	261
24	0.5522%	1.1678%	3444
25	0.8509%	1.8538%	5467
26	1.1135%	2.7405%	8082
27	1.4535%	3.2260%	9514
28	1.0591%	2.8592%	8432
29	0.2026%	0.5836%	1721
30	3.5669%	4.2138%	12427
31	9.4239%	8.0332%	23691
32	0.4062%	0.4327%	1276
33	39.8441%	7.1052%	20954
34	41.4014%	17.4622%	51498

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
16	2.7255%	12.5000%	36864
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
45	1.7934%	6.2032%	18294
46	0.9196%	6.2598%	18461
47	0.0125%	0.0370%	109
49	97.2745%	37.5000%	110592

Maine - 0.1169% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0141%	0.0058%	17
15	0.1028%	0.0115%	34
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0021%	0.0031%	9
15	0.0847%	0.0458%	135
16	1.5011%	1.5391%	4539
17	14.6382%	14.4809%	42706
18	60.3891%	25.5493%	75348
19	22.4901%	7.9468%	23436
20	0.7779%	0.4178%	1232