Prediction if Connecticut wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

Team	Likelihood	Most Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale	100.0000%	1
North Dakota	100.0000%	2
Boston College	100.0000%	3
Michigan	100.0000%	4
Miami	100.0000%	4
Denver	100.0000%	6
Union	100.0000%	8
Merrimack	100.0000%	9
Minnesota-Duluth	100.0000%	10
Notre Dame	99.9925%	10
New Hampshire	99.9909%	11
Nebraska-Omaha	91.2728%	13
Colorado College	90.1393%	14
Rensselaer	67.2328%	15
Western Michigan	64.4311%	11
Dartmouth	51.3956%	14
Air Force	40.5003%	16
Connecticut	37.8706%	16
Holy Cross	21.6291%	16
Cornell	11.0718%	15
Bemidji State	9.1842%	15
Boston University	6.6065%	15
Northeastern	5.2652%	15
Colgate	2.7255%	16
Maine	0.6917%	15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	89.4530%	25.9796%	76617
2	4.8110%	11.5211%	33977
3	5.7310%	12.4179%	36622
4	0.0050%	0.0814%	240

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	6.3912%	15.3063%	45140
2	64.5353%	21.3277%	62898
3	29.0736%	13.3660%	39418

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	4.1559%	8.7141%	25699
2	30.6528%	17.1329%	50527
3	58.7178%	20.5526%	60612
4	6.4736%	3.6004%	10618

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
2	0.0009%	0.0183%	54
3	2.0330%	0.4534%	1337
4	36.3375%	16.7406%	49370
5	29.6912%	15.2039%	44838
6	14.9050%	6.6911%	19733
7	10.8766%	4.6400%	13684
8	4.2210%	4.5827%	13515
9	1.6535%	1.3496%	3980
10	0.2812%	0.3204%	945

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
3	4.4446%	3.2101%	9467
4	27.2285%	13.8435%	40826
5	21.5875%	11.3881%	33585
6	20.8836%	8.7840%	25905
7	11.6967%	3.8354%	11311
8	7.8966%	3.6987%	10908
9	5.7549%	4.6305%	13656
10	0.5076%	0.6097%	1798

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	10.8682%	5.2483%	15478
5	28.8141%	12.7441%	37584
6	30.3002%	14.1863%	41837
7	20.6519%	11.7113%	34538
8	8.4067%	5.4891%	16188
9	0.6138%	0.3381%	997
10	0.3452%	0.2828%	834

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.0357%	0.0892%	263
6	4.0162%	4.4980%	13265
7	25.5910%	15.2690%	45030
8	52.5256%	22.6183%	66704
9	16.6243%	7.1499%	21086
10	1.2073%	0.3757%	1108

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	16.3891%	9.3726%	27641
5	11.8723%	5.3487%	15774
6	14.9638%	7.1594%	21114
7	17.1195%	7.9831%	23543
8	16.0064%	6.1225%	18056
9	19.2125%	11.1081%	32759
10	4.4364%	2.9056%	8569

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
7	0.0200%	0.0237%	70
8	4.0557%	1.9379%	5715
9	28.2384%	12.6787%	37391
10	55.2335%	27.1895%	80185
11	12.4524%	8.1702%	24095

Notre Dame - 99.9925% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	2.6927%	1.1115%	3278
5	6.9540%	4.0463%	11933
6	8.9632%	4.5264%	13349
7	5.9266%	3.0368%	8956
8	3.8930%	2.9433%	8680
9	26.8199%	12.2321%	36074
10	28.8595%	11.5885%	34176
11	9.3270%	4.6316%	13659
12	5.9316%	4.6275%	13647
13	0.3562%	0.6812%	2009
14	0.2554%	0.4038%	1191
15	0.0134%	0.0163%	48
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0002%	0.0146%	43
14	0.0051%	0.1265%	373
15	0.0022%	0.0136%	40

New Hampshire - 99.9909% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	0.0054%	0.0017%	5
5	1.0452%	1.1797%	3479
6	5.9681%	4.1548%	12253
7	8.1177%	3.5007%	10324
8	2.9951%	2.6076%	7690
9	1.0827%	0.5130%	1513
10	3.8192%	3.4315%	10120
11	44.6655%	18.0264%	53162
12	23.6837%	10.4051%	30686
13	7.2615%	4.4356%	13081
14	1.2264%	1.4920%	4400
15	0.1205%	0.1390%	410
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0006%	0.0224%	66
14	0.0077%	0.0770%	227
15	0.0008%	0.0136%	40

Nebraska-Omaha - 91.2728% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
12	17.3164%	3.1921%	9414
13	41.1886%	13.5244%	39885
14	19.6960%	9.0529%	26698
15	13.0718%	4.3226%	12748
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0224%	0.4737%	1397
14	0.6234%	3.6641%	10806
15	4.0311%	10.7944%	31834
16	4.0502%	4.9757%	14674

Colorado College - 90.1393% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.1606%	0.1227%	362
11	4.5864%	3.2610%	9617
12	25.3526%	11.1820%	32977
13	15.5449%	8.3106%	24509
14	37.7398%	9.3828%	27671
15	6.7550%	2.2831%	6733
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0132%	0.2502%	738
14	0.7453%	3.2596%	9613
15	2.6530%	6.0218%	17759
16	6.4491%	5.9262%	17477

Rensselaer - 67.2328% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	0.2068%	0.3272%	965
12	2.4410%	3.2352%	9541
13	11.9307%	10.2146%	30124
14	21.0278%	12.0822%	35632
15	31.6265%	4.4800%	13212
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0239%	0.5693%	1679
14	0.7298%	3.9300%	11590
15	10.9067%	10.1688%	29989
16	19.6741%	4.7919%	14132
17	1.4327%	0.2007%	592

Western Michigan - 64.4311% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	5.1189%	3.1491%	9287
11	20.1619%	11.9480%	35236
12	13.8786%	9.6500%	28459
13	14.3057%	7.6609%	22593
14	4.3413%	1.8819%	5550
15	6.6247%	0.7372%	2174
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0054%	0.1628%	480
14	0.1020%	0.3686%	1087
15	1.1853%	1.2783%	3770
16	5.7902%	2.7534%	8120
17	17.9254%	6.1527%	18145
18	10.3841%	3.9541%	11661
19	0.1764%	0.3031%	894

Dartmouth - 51.3956% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.0306%	0.0244%	72
11	8.5999%	3.6357%	10722
12	11.3962%	7.7081%	22732
13	9.3456%	3.6102%	10647
14	11.5721%	2.8419%	8381
15	10.4512%	1.2580%	3710
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0009%	0.0695%	205
14	0.0616%	0.9749%	2875
15	2.9408%	3.3081%	9756
16	24.3667%	8.7979%	25946
17	11.8903%	4.7323%	13956
18	5.4565%	5.3789%	15863
19	3.1487%	4.9082%	14475
20	0.6643%	2.5716%	7584
21	0.0611%	0.1516%	447
22	0.0136%	0.0288%	85

Air Force - 40.5003% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0581%	0.7812%	2304
15	3.1200%	4.6875%	13824
16	37.3221%	7.0312%	20736
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
21	4.4390%	1.7927%	5287
22	12.0577%	2.3254%	6858
23	1.0432%	0.7039%	2076
24	9.0992%	2.3461%	6919
25	9.2662%	3.2840%	9685
26	3.4177%	1.5879%	4683
27	6.9945%	2.8802%	8494
28	13.7726%	7.6779%	22643
29	3.9361%	4.9856%	14703
30	31.6059%	13.8668%	40895
31	4.3678%	8.5493%	25213

Connecticut - 37.8706% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	1.0322%	6.2500%	18432
16	36.8384%	18.7500%	55296
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
42	36.2210%	24.5188%	72309
43	1.6496%	0.4812%	1419
45	62.1294%	25.0000%	73728

Holy Cross - 21.6291% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.5895%	3.1250%	9216
16	21.0396%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
37	0.1723%	0.2574%	759
38	2.9348%	2.2949%	6768
39	18.5221%	9.9477%	29337
40	17.0457%	12.4230%	36637
41	61.3251%	25.0770%	73955

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.5830%	3.1250%	9216
15	10.4888%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	5.8800%	6.9655%	20542
21	4.2236%	4.3450%	12814
22	1.1574%	1.2316%	3632
23	0.0049%	0.0024%	7
24	3.3412%	0.8908%	2627
25	4.8233%	1.6300%	4807
26	15.3858%	10.6744%	31480
27	24.4793%	8.2943%	24461
28	24.2728%	5.5298%	16308
29	5.0605%	1.7968%	5299
30	6.8889%	4.0341%	11897
31	3.3841%	3.1538%	9301
32	1.0640%	1.4187%	4184
33	0.0343%	0.0329%	97

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0667%	1.5625%	4608
14	1.6173%	6.2500%	18432
15	7.5002%	4.6875%	13824
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
18	1.8438%	2.8320%	8352
19	2.0374%	2.6452%	7801
20	5.3362%	7.0462%	20780
21	2.4088%	0.8925%	2632
22	22.5880%	9.1617%	27019
23	11.0277%	7.2595%	21409
24	17.6283%	4.2213%	12449
25	11.4015%	7.2459%	21369
26	22.3249%	7.1804%	21176
27	3.3867%	1.4743%	4348
28	0.0167%	0.0410%	121

Boston University - 6.6065% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	1.5551%	0.3208%	946
15	5.0514%	0.7507%	2214
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0636%	0.0912%	269
15	3.7857%	4.1467%	12229
16	36.3460%	20.4980%	60451
17	52.3515%	23.8766%	70415
18	0.8467%	0.3160%	932

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0854%	2.3438%	6912
15	3.1055%	7.8125%	23040
16	2.0743%	2.3438%	6912
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
22	0.2313%	0.4537%	1338
23	0.0366%	0.1448%	427
24	0.6698%	1.4720%	4341
25	1.0597%	2.0969%	6184
26	1.2531%	2.9002%	8553
27	1.0885%	3.1776%	9371
28	0.8020%	1.9446%	5735
29	0.3313%	0.7816%	2305
30	2.9481%	4.0395%	11913
31	9.9279%	7.9892%	23561
32	4.2546%	1.3991%	4126
33	48.5901%	9.2889%	27394
34	28.8071%	14.3121%	42208

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
16	2.7255%	12.5000%	36864
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
46	2.6614%	12.3410%	36395
47	0.0641%	0.1590%	469
49	97.2745%	37.5000%	110592

Maine - 0.6917% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.2424%	0.0417%	123
15	0.4493%	0.0756%	223
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0050%	0.0081%	24
15	0.3307%	0.1923%	567
16	3.3236%	2.2569%	6656
17	16.4002%	15.0377%	44348
18	71.9462%	27.3302%	80600
19	7.0621%	4.7567%	14028
20	0.2405%	0.3008%	887