Prediction if Dartmouth wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Michigan100.0000%4
Miami100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%6
Union100.0000%8
Merrimack100.0000%9
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%10
Notre Dame99.9955%10
New Hampshire99.9928%11
Nebraska-Omaha88.7885%13
Colorado College85.8562%14
Dartmouth78.9611%12
Rensselaer67.5558%15
Western Michigan60.0499%11
RIT36.7267%16
Air Force33.5886%16
Holy Cross17.1314%16
Connecticut12.5532%16
Bemidji State9.1842%15
Northeastern5.2652%16
Colgate2.4093%16
Boston University1.9414%15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.4038%25.6266%75576
24.8287%11.6096%34238
35.7596%12.6075%37181
40.0079%0.1563%461

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.4317%15.5846%45961
264.4869%21.0086%61957
329.0814%13.4067%39538

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
14.1645%8.7887%25919
230.6829%17.3462%51156
358.6922%20.3457%60002
46.4604%3.5194%10379

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
20.0015%0.0356%105
32.0354%0.5103%1505
436.3539%16.6924%49228
529.6078%15.1900%44797
615.0447%6.9139%20390
710.9575%4.8859%14409
84.1670%4.2853%12638
91.5677%1.2037%3550
100.2645%0.2828%834

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
34.4315%3.1297%9230
427.2508%13.9157%41039
521.6515%11.4126%33657
620.8851%8.9756%26470
711.7478%3.9171%11552
88.0518%3.9764%11727
95.4959%4.1158%12138
100.4856%0.5571%1643

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
410.9016%5.2582%15507
528.8615%12.8354%37853
630.3695%14.2836%42124
720.7784%11.8140%34841
88.1856%5.2239%15406
90.6615%0.3547%1046
100.2419%0.2302%679

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0263%0.0746%220
63.8816%4.1755%12314
724.9216%14.2405%41997
852.5520%22.4718%66272
917.2459%8.4656%24966
101.3725%0.5720%1687

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
416.3879%9.3679%27627
511.9337%5.3640%15819
614.9563%7.1533%21096
717.1229%8.1377%23999
815.8896%6.3371%18689
918.9042%10.5879%31225
104.8053%3.0521%9001

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
70.0340%0.0390%115
84.2176%2.0352%6002
928.4979%12.6760%37383
1054.8279%27.0793%79860
1112.4225%8.1706%24096

Notre Dame - 99.9955% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
42.6313%1.0885%3210
56.8758%4.0090%11823
68.9316%4.5146%13314
76.1893%3.3430%9859
84.1014%3.1942%9420
926.4647%11.8917%35070
1029.4374%11.8774%35028
118.9517%4.3179%12734
125.7604%4.8072%14177
130.3840%0.4395%1296
140.2453%0.3961%1168
150.0227%0.0326%96
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0009%0.0614%181
150.0036%0.0271%80

New Hampshire - 99.9928% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
40.0062%0.0017%5
51.0433%1.1146%3287
65.9312%3.9836%11748
78.2485%3.6228%10684
82.8349%2.4760%7302
91.1621%0.7046%2078
103.7106%3.2789%9670
1141.2658%16.2133%47815
1224.3042%10.0447%29623
139.5470%6.0571%17863
141.7194%2.0860%6152
150.2196%0.2845%839
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0001%0.0058%17
140.0058%0.0994%293
150.0013%0.0271%80

Nebraska-Omaha - 88.7885% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1213.8927%1.7643%5203
1334.7423%9.8185%28956
1421.3640%9.0892%26805
1518.7894%6.9848%20599
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0035%0.2509%740
140.3040%2.0620%6081
154.0419%10.4906%30938
166.8621%9.5398%28134

Colorado College - 85.8562% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.1445%0.1146%338
114.1253%2.9768%8779
1221.1609%8.0750%23814
1317.3304%7.7877%22967
1432.3478%7.8491%23148
1510.7472%4.1050%12106
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0002%0.0058%17
140.1746%1.1027%3252
152.7447%6.1015%17994
1611.2243%11.8818%35041

Dartmouth - 78.9611% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0516%0.0488%144
1114.4868%7.2652%21426
1219.2206%15.3453%45255
1315.2596%6.4168%18924
1416.7383%4.6238%13636
1513.2043%2.1667%6390
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0012%0.1339%395
140.0805%1.5957%4706
153.0524%3.7367%11020
1617.9047%8.6670%25560

Rensselaer - 67.5558% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.3030%0.2655%783
122.4644%1.9857%5856
1313.4857%9.9399%29314
1421.7137%15.4026%45424
1529.5890%5.9960%17683
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0057%0.2872%847
140.2302%2.8035%8268
155.2302%6.7190%19815
1625.7001%6.4612%19055
171.2781%0.1394%411

Western Michigan - 60.0499% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
104.6581%2.9066%8572
1118.4450%10.7907%31823
1213.1968%7.9780%23528
139.2394%8.7592%25832
145.0630%2.7408%8083
159.4477%1.3207%3895
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0010%0.0977%288
140.0124%0.0878%259
150.9030%1.7731%5229
166.1446%0.8535%2517
1724.6606%8.6534%25520
188.1442%3.9812%11741
190.0843%0.0573%169

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0466%0.7806%2302
152.7135%4.6722%13779
1633.9667%7.0472%20783
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0095%0.0332%98
2117.3664%5.3592%15805
229.4068%3.3739%9950
237.1627%2.1573%6362
242.7813%1.5764%4649
260.1534%0.4062%1198
274.5801%2.2017%6493
2819.0000%9.2879%27391
2923.7378%14.7020%43358
3013.8182%8.5378%25179
311.9837%2.3644%6973

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0426%0.7812%2304
152.4925%4.6875%13824
1631.0535%7.0312%20736
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
219.6176%4.0154%11842
2213.1113%3.0006%8849
231.4139%0.5547%1636
243.5061%1.3563%4000
254.6351%2.9928%8826
260.9181%0.4720%1392
274.3306%3.2030%9446
2812.1460%5.0273%14826
2915.9186%9.1685%27039
3030.9370%13.1883%38894
313.4656%7.0211%20706

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.4127%3.1250%9216
1616.7187%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
372.5028%2.1200%6252
387.0560%4.2548%12548
397.5783%6.1551%18152
4021.6707%12.4190%36625
4161.1923%25.0512%73879

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3024%3.1250%9216
1612.2508%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4212.0581%12.2606%36158
430.4951%0.2394%706
4534.2342%19.9819%58929
4652.4616%15.5670%45909
470.7510%1.9511%5754

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0117%0.7812%2304
140.6815%4.6875%13824
158.4910%7.0312%20736
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
181.6608%0.4927%1453
191.5422%1.2451%3672
205.9990%10.7781%31786
213.0225%1.2794%3773
2219.7152%9.3957%27709
2314.6188%7.1143%20981
2423.9690%5.8339%17205
256.0418%5.9140%17441
2623.2715%6.9661%20544
270.1586%0.9403%2773
280.0007%0.0404%119

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0377%1.5632%4610
151.6264%6.2653%18477
163.6011%4.6716%13777
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.2078%0.6056%1786
230.0007%0.0553%163
240.8076%1.8609%5488
251.1928%2.4743%7297
261.2546%3.4393%10143
271.6226%2.9789%8785
280.1787%1.0251%3023
290.2566%0.8053%2375
304.0480%5.3925%15903
318.7790%6.3629%18765
323.5031%1.4191%4185
3340.6588%8.4991%25065
3437.4898%15.0818%44478

Colgate - 2.4093% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.4093%12.5000%36864
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
451.6107%6.2500%18432
460.7986%6.2500%18432
4997.5907%37.5000%110592

Boston University - 1.9414% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
151.9414%0.2035%600
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.0615%0.0312%92
1631.9085%12.5526%37019
1766.0886%37.2128%109745