Prediction if Denver wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

Team	Likelihood	Most Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale	100.0000%	1
North Dakota	100.0000%	2
Boston College	100.0000%	3
Michigan	100.0000%	4
Miami	100.0000%	4
Denver	100.0000%	5
Union	100.0000%	8
Merrimack	100.0000%	9
Minnesota-Duluth	100.0000%	10
New Hampshire	99.9988%	11
Notre Dame	99.9937%	10
Nebraska-Omaha	93.1303%	13
Colorado College	91.0869%	14
Rensselaer	69.8920%	15
Western Michigan	65.6084%	11
Dartmouth	53.4808%	14
RIT	36.7267%	16
Air Force	33.5886%	16
Holy Cross	17.1314%	16
Connecticut	12.5532%	16
Cornell	11.0718%	15
Boston University	7.0337%	15
Northeastern	5.2652%	16
Colgate	2.7255%	16
Maine	0.7129%	15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	89.4332%	25.8280%	76170
2	5.0998%	11.6228%	34277
3	5.4648%	12.5302%	36953
4	0.0022%	0.0190%	56

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	6.1228%	15.4317%	45510
2	62.8095%	21.1436%	62355
3	31.0678%	13.4247%	39591

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	4.4441%	8.7402%	25776
2	32.0901%	17.2258%	50801
3	56.9996%	20.4688%	60365
4	6.4662%	3.5651%	10514

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
2	0.0006%	0.0078%	23
3	2.0306%	0.4018%	1185
4	33.0444%	13.6542%	40268
5	25.5763%	12.8913%	38018
6	18.0327%	9.4021%	27728
7	15.1559%	7.4083%	21848
8	4.2128%	4.4976%	13264
9	1.6463%	1.3821%	4076
10	0.3003%	0.3547%	1046

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
3	4.4372%	3.1745%	9362
4	26.1892%	12.3023%	36281
5	16.7982%	8.6643%	25552
6	21.5143%	10.0247%	29564
7	14.5007%	5.5976%	16508
8	10.1920%	4.6349%	13669
9	5.8197%	4.8292%	14242
10	0.5488%	0.7724%	2278

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	15.9350%	10.4970%	30957
5	39.7907%	20.3830%	60112
6	29.9180%	13.5861%	40067
7	12.7919%	5.1826%	15284
8	1.5644%	0.3513%	1036

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
6	3.6615%	4.0348%	11899
7	21.1798%	12.4230%	36637
8	56.7028%	25.5469%	75341
9	16.8245%	7.3741%	21747
10	1.6313%	0.6212%	1832

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	16.3865%	9.3760%	27651
5	11.5111%	5.2782%	15566
6	15.4422%	7.1676%	21138
7	18.3613%	9.7578%	28777
8	17.2252%	6.5938%	19446
9	18.4334%	10.6876%	31519
10	2.6402%	1.1390%	3359

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
8	1.6495%	0.4059%	1197
9	28.0409%	12.3328%	36371
10	57.5819%	28.9303%	85319
11	12.7277%	8.3310%	24569

New Hampshire - 99.9988% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.2713%	0.0936%	276
6	2.5881%	1.1963%	3528
7	10.7534%	5.2914%	15605
8	3.9561%	4.2375%	12497
9	1.4311%	0.7785%	2296
10	4.0361%	3.7845%	11161
11	44.8656%	17.8518%	52647
12	23.5815%	10.5435%	31094
13	7.1287%	4.4691%	13180
14	1.2686%	1.5822%	4666
15	0.1184%	0.1472%	434
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0006%	0.0109%	32
15	0.0007%	0.0136%	40

Notre Dame - 99.9937% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	1.9765%	0.5863%	1729
5	6.0524%	2.6896%	7932
6	8.8431%	4.5885%	13532
7	7.2569%	4.3393%	12797
8	4.4972%	3.7320%	11006
9	27.8041%	12.6156%	37205
10	27.8715%	10.9962%	32429
11	8.8893%	3.8974%	11494
12	6.2117%	5.1948%	15320
13	0.3582%	0.7989%	2356
14	0.2212%	0.4042%	1192
15	0.0116%	0.0163%	48
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0044%	0.1275%	376
15	0.0019%	0.0136%	40

Nebraska-Omaha - 93.1303% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
12	16.7190%	2.3817%	7024
13	42.2082%	14.6528%	43213
14	20.1984%	10.6754%	31483
15	14.0047%	5.7024%	16817
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.2280%	2.0281%	5981
15	2.7728%	9.5649%	28208
16	3.8690%	4.9947%	14730

Colorado College - 91.0869% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.1390%	0.1224%	361
11	3.9676%	3.2579%	9608
12	25.6621%	11.5102%	33945
13	14.5839%	8.4252%	24847
14	39.0314%	11.5852%	34166
15	7.7029%	3.3196%	9790
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.2500%	1.3536%	3992
15	1.8901%	4.7852%	14112
16	6.7731%	5.6407%	16635

Rensselaer - 69.8920% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	0.2266%	0.2041%	602
12	2.5283%	3.2135%	9477
13	12.1801%	10.3522%	30530
14	19.4288%	13.5264%	39891
15	35.5283%	5.9058%	17417
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.1772%	1.9775%	5832
15	7.8899%	8.8806%	26190
16	20.5121%	5.6814%	16755
17	1.5289%	0.2584%	762

Western Michigan - 65.6084% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	5.2245%	3.2549%	9599
11	20.6890%	12.8221%	37814
12	13.8655%	9.5910%	28285
13	14.1900%	7.6192%	22470
14	4.4069%	2.0026%	5906
15	7.2326%	0.9128%	2692
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0457%	0.2452%	723
15	0.9538%	1.1488%	3388
16	5.6837%	2.5686%	7575
17	17.8409%	5.5932%	16495
18	9.8674%	4.2416%	12509

Dartmouth - 53.4808% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.0265%	0.0244%	72
11	8.6343%	3.6357%	10722
12	11.4320%	7.5653%	22311
13	9.3510%	3.6825%	10860
14	12.8553%	3.5295%	10409
15	11.1818%	1.6707%	4927
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0206%	0.5073%	1496
15	1.5398%	3.0111%	8880
16	25.7888%	9.3058%	27444
17	10.1482%	4.6356%	13671
18	5.9086%	6.5867%	19425
19	2.9521%	5.2694%	15540
20	0.1457%	0.4761%	1404
21	0.0152%	0.0997%	294
22	0.0003%	0.0003%	1

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0508%	0.7657%	2258
15	2.8160%	4.6705%	13774
16	33.8600%	7.0638%	20832
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	0.0042%	0.0115%	34
21	13.8405%	4.6119%	13601
22	13.7469%	3.0331%	8945
23	6.3592%	3.0473%	8987
24	2.3478%	0.9986%	2945
25	0.0977%	0.3048%	899
26	0.3829%	0.6554%	1933
27	2.7789%	1.2271%	3619
28	15.5829%	7.6725%	22627
29	25.9344%	14.9746%	44162
30	16.2752%	10.4306%	30761
31	2.6495%	3.0324%	8943

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0482%	0.7812%	2304
15	2.5876%	4.6875%	13824
16	30.9529%	7.0312%	20736
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	0.0042%	0.0088%	26
21	7.2823%	3.4271%	10107
22	18.2353%	4.7526%	14016
23	0.1371%	0.3384%	998
24	6.2630%	3.4431%	10154
25	1.1243%	0.3899%	1150
26	0.5042%	0.1411%	416
27	2.3529%	1.6496%	4865
28	9.9077%	4.8832%	14401
29	17.5394%	7.7033%	22718
30	33.2820%	15.8027%	46604
31	3.3675%	7.4602%	22001

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.4669%	3.1250%	9216
16	16.6645%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
37	2.3134%	2.1667%	6390
38	7.0198%	4.3582%	12853
39	7.8427%	6.1710%	18199
40	21.6503%	12.2654%	36172
41	61.1738%	25.0387%	73842

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.3421%	3.1250%	9216
16	12.2111%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
42	11.9511%	12.2213%	36042
43	0.6021%	0.2787%	822
45	28.5551%	17.4842%	51563
46	57.8884%	17.1254%	50505
47	1.0033%	2.8904%	8524

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.5830%	3.1250%	9216
15	10.4888%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	8.4062%	9.5968%	28302
21	2.0763%	2.2790%	6721
22	0.7439%	0.6843%	2018
23	0.2661%	0.0410%	121
24	2.8881%	1.1959%	3527
25	6.3392%	2.4007%	7080
26	12.4850%	7.6331%	22511
27	21.9111%	8.5626%	25252
28	21.0033%	5.3480%	15772
29	13.4504%	3.1331%	9240
30	5.6660%	4.1168%	12141
31	3.5574%	3.3193%	9789
32	1.1735%	1.6334%	4817
33	0.0336%	0.0559%	165

Boston University - 7.0337% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	1.6107%	0.3910%	1153
15	5.4230%	0.9810%	2893
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	3.0280%	3.6553%	10780
16	34.0408%	19.6075%	57825
17	54.7787%	24.8047%	73152
18	1.1188%	0.5605%	1653

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0445%	1.5781%	4654
15	1.6346%	6.2670%	18482
16	3.5861%	4.6549%	13728
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
22	0.2140%	0.7029%	2073
23	0.0377%	0.2391%	705
24	0.8671%	2.3580%	6954
25	1.2178%	2.7381%	8075
26	1.0398%	2.4068%	7098
27	1.1876%	2.4926%	7351
28	0.7013%	1.5625%	4608
29	0.1296%	0.2750%	811
30	3.9681%	4.3959%	12964
31	8.9853%	7.8291%	23089
32	0.0077%	0.0142%	42
33	42.8101%	8.2340%	24283
34	38.8339%	16.7518%	49403

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
16	2.7255%	12.5000%	36864
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
45	1.7484%	6.0462%	17831
46	0.9460%	6.2948%	18564
47	0.0312%	0.1590%	469
49	97.2745%	37.5000%	110592

Maine - 0.7129% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.2523%	0.0536%	158
15	0.4606%	0.0943%	278
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.2592%	0.1770%	522
16	3.3326%	2.2013%	6492
17	15.7029%	14.7074%	43374
18	73.2760%	28.3454%	83594
19	6.7165%	4.4210%	13038