Prediction with DU and Miami winning their Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Michigan100.0000%4
Miami100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%5
Merrimack100.0000%7
Union100.0000%8
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%9
New Hampshire99.9981%11
Notre Dame99.9878%10
Nebraska-Omaha93.5367%13
Colorado College86.9935%14
Rensselaer81.4891%15
Western Michigan63.3056%11
Dartmouth48.9472%14
RIT36.7267%16
Air Force33.5886%16
Holy Cross17.1314%16
Connecticut12.5532%16
Cornell11.0718%15
Boston University6.0555%15
Northeastern5.2652%16
Colgate2.7255%16
Maine0.6240%15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.5452%52.8998%39002
25.1382%26.3116%19399
35.3166%20.7886%15327

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.1178%30.7997%22708
262.9213%43.5248%32090
330.9609%25.6755%18930

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
14.3369%16.3005%12018
231.9405%30.1636%22239
355.1183%40.8379%30109
48.6042%12.6980%9362

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
427.5694%21.8750%16128
524.7687%22.9045%16887
620.5623%21.8519%16111
721.8332%22.1015%16295
85.2664%11.2671%8307

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
38.6042%12.6980%9362
448.0814%43.5520%32110
520.5677%20.8333%15360
618.8968%18.7500%13824
73.8499%4.1667%3072

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
45.0671%9.3750%6912
542.6638%43.7256%32238
636.7177%33.3577%24594
715.5514%13.5417%9984

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
410.6780%12.5000%9216
511.9998%12.5366%9243
618.9008%17.6717%13029
721.5759%21.5278%15872
814.3686%10.7286%7910
921.4021%24.3842%17978
101.0748%0.6510%480

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
62.5080%6.1537%4537
723.2997%26.2017%19318
873.4308%65.9844%48649
90.7237%1.5394%1135
100.0379%0.1207%89

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
83.1985%1.6235%1197
954.2052%49.2798%36333
1036.6029%40.7728%30061
115.9934%8.3238%6137

New Hampshire - 99.9981% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
62.4144%2.2149%1633
713.8899%12.4607%9187
83.3320%9.4279%6951
90.2623%0.8965%661
106.0837%11.5275%8499
1142.8069%32.0190%23607
1222.4147%19.0416%14039
136.8964%8.3794%6178
141.6993%3.5468%2615
150.1985%0.4150%306
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0009%0.0271%20
150.0011%0.0434%32

Notre Dame - 99.9878% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.4037%0.9684%714
923.4068%23.9000%17621
1045.7488%33.3211%24567
1117.2373%15.5897%11494
1212.0451%20.7791%15320
130.6946%3.1955%2356
140.4289%1.6168%1192
150.0226%0.0651%48
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0086%0.5100%376
150.0036%0.0543%40

Nebraska-Omaha - 93.5367% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1217.9096%5.0564%3728
1340.5550%28.7733%21214
1419.3955%21.5725%15905
1515.6765%12.0660%8896
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2556%4.8191%3553
152.8483%18.9100%13942
163.3594%8.8026%6490

Colorado College - 86.9935% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.2696%0.4896%361
114.3883%8.5327%6291
1224.2313%20.7004%15262
1312.5508%13.9540%10288
1439.2060%21.3175%15717
156.3475%5.9597%4394
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2316%2.0454%1508
152.7249%12.5800%9275
1610.0500%14.4206%10632

Rensselaer - 81.4891% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.2085%0.4869%359
123.2994%9.1268%6729
1316.0403%25.0054%18436
1420.6285%28.1223%20734
1541.3125%11.9954%8844
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1561%3.5143%2591
157.7487%15.5504%11465
1610.2232%5.9787%4408
170.3829%0.2197%162

Western Michigan - 63.3056% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1010.1308%13.0195%9599
1119.7575%25.8002%19022
129.6584%12.1677%8971
1314.2623%14.2619%10515
142.9995%3.5617%2626
156.4972%2.4984%1842
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0576%0.6999%516
151.0412%2.6042%1920
168.5909%5.7265%4222
1718.3911%11.1938%8253
188.6136%8.4663%6242

Dartmouth - 48.9472% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0514%0.0977%72
119.6081%9.2475%6818
1210.4416%13.1280%9679
139.0006%6.4304%4741
1413.1423%6.9878%5152
156.7032%2.4889%1835
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0161%0.8843%652
151.3052%5.6261%4148
1630.4468%20.9907%15476
179.9924%9.3058%6861
186.1931%13.2324%9756
192.9101%10.2729%7574
200.1747%1.0661%786
210.0144%0.2414%178

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0510%1.5394%1135
152.8278%9.3777%6914
1633.8479%14.0828%10383
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0027%0.0176%13
2111.9655%8.2723%6099
2215.5380%6.6637%4913
236.4205%6.4304%4741
242.3723%2.0196%1489
250.0945%0.5968%440
260.4117%1.4160%1044
272.7459%2.4346%1795
2815.2075%15.0282%11080
2926.0959%29.7390%21926
3016.4718%21.1941%15626
312.6737%6.1876%4562

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0482%1.5625%1152
152.5876%9.3750%6912
1630.9529%14.0625%10368
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0018%0.0081%6
216.5583%5.9597%4394
2218.1572%10.0301%7395
230.1194%0.5290%390
246.5247%6.9661%5136
251.3311%1.0742%792
260.8529%0.4462%329
272.4173%3.2945%2429
289.8375%9.7412%7182
2917.5611%15.4690%11405
3033.3660%31.7925%23440
313.2726%14.6891%10830

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.4669%6.2500%4608
1616.6645%18.7500%13824
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
371.5155%3.0301%2234
387.1261%9.2448%6816
398.4913%12.7631%9410
4021.6251%24.8169%18297
4161.2420%50.1451%36971

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3421%6.2500%4608
1612.2111%18.7500%13824
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4211.8233%24.3381%17944
430.7299%0.6619%488
4527.0854%33.7660%24895
4659.3137%35.0694%25856
471.0477%6.1646%4545

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.5830%6.2500%4608
1510.4888%18.7500%13824
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
208.0400%18.7486%13823
212.3705%4.7811%3525
220.7306%1.5462%1140
230.1140%0.0502%37
242.5934%2.2434%1654
256.3732%4.8313%3562
2613.0445%15.6508%11539
2724.4959%17.6948%13046
2819.0782%10.3163%7606
2912.9430%5.9421%4381
305.6877%8.6263%6360
313.5741%6.6895%4932
320.9483%2.8605%2109
330.0067%0.0190%14

Boston University - 6.0555% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.4988%0.6510%480
154.5567%1.8623%1373
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
152.4007%6.7817%5000
1633.9844%39.5983%29195
1756.3065%49.8223%36733
181.2529%1.2845%947

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0443%3.1481%2321
151.6228%12.4973%9214
163.5982%9.3547%6897
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.0289%0.3852%284
230.0067%0.2089%154
240.7942%4.4081%3250
251.1491%5.3480%3943
261.0836%5.1609%3805
271.3740%5.8011%4277
280.8288%3.6879%2719
290.1184%0.5018%370
303.8814%8.5761%6323
319.0833%15.9220%11739
320.0119%0.0407%30
3342.4524%16.2625%11990
3439.1874%33.6968%24844

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7255%25.0000%18432
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
451.7351%12.0144%8858
460.9527%12.5841%9278
470.0378%0.4015%296
4997.2745%75.0000%55296

Maine - 0.6240% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2747%0.1234%91
150.3493%0.1492%110
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2622%0.3499%258
163.3454%4.4827%3305
1714.9271%29.4583%21719
1875.1918%57.5439%42426
195.6494%7.8925%5819