Prediction if Miami wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Michigan100.0000%4
Miami100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%5
Merrimack100.0000%7
Union100.0000%8
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%9
New Hampshire99.9983%11
Notre Dame99.9878%10
Nebraska-Omaha93.5083%13
Colorado College86.7982%14
Rensselaer81.9697%15
Western Michigan63.2107%11
RIT54.9371%16
Dartmouth48.7799%14
Air Force30.1616%16
Holy Cross14.9013%16
Cornell11.0718%15
Boston University6.0705%15
Northeastern5.2652%16
Colgate2.7255%16
Maine0.6141%15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.5472%52.9460%19518
25.1377%26.2994%9695
35.3151%20.7547%7651

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.1159%30.7563%11338
262.9232%43.5710%16062
330.9609%25.6727%9464

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
14.3369%16.2977%6008
231.9391%30.1297%11107
355.1192%40.8583%15062
48.6048%12.7143%4687

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
427.5694%21.8750%8064
524.7443%22.9004%8442
620.5730%21.8452%8053
721.8424%22.0540%8130
85.2710%11.3254%4175

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
38.6048%12.7143%4687
448.0808%43.5357%16049
520.5677%20.8333%7680
618.8968%18.7500%6912
73.8499%4.1667%1536

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
45.0671%9.3750%3456
542.6458%43.7202%16117
636.7357%33.3632%12299
715.5514%13.5417%4992

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
410.6780%12.5000%4608
512.0421%12.5461%4625
618.8585%17.6622%6511
721.4409%20.7872%7663
814.3563%10.8805%4011
921.4237%24.7260%9115
101.2005%0.8979%331

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
62.4962%6.0981%2248
723.2865%26.6032%9807
873.4654%65.6820%24213
90.7125%1.4838%547
100.0394%0.1329%49

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
83.3314%2.1918%808
954.2733%49.0885%18096
1036.4060%40.4026%14894
115.9893%8.3171%3066

New Hampshire - 99.9983% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
62.4399%2.2814%841
714.0289%12.8472%4736
83.1697%9.0034%3319
90.2601%0.8681%320
106.0893%11.5723%4266
1142.8191%32.1208%11841
1222.3243%18.8368%6944
136.8414%8.3116%3064
141.8221%3.6757%1355
150.2035%0.4205%155
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0006%0.0190%7
150.0011%0.0434%16

Notre Dame - 99.9878% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.4062%0.9169%338
923.3304%23.8336%8786
1045.8359%33.4120%12317
1117.2428%15.6250%5760
1212.0150%20.6868%7626
130.7059%3.2823%1210
140.4289%1.6168%596
150.0226%0.0651%24
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0086%0.5073%187
150.0036%0.0543%20

Nebraska-Omaha - 93.5083% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1217.7706%4.9886%1839
1340.3496%28.4288%10480
1419.5973%21.6526%7982
1515.7909%12.2152%4503
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2594%4.8665%1794
152.8675%19.0321%7016
163.3648%8.8162%3250

Colorado College - 86.7982% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.2696%0.4910%181
114.3872%8.5151%3139
1224.2797%20.6841%7625
1312.4708%13.8997%5124
1438.9043%21.0205%7749
156.4866%6.0004%2212
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2268%1.9803%730
152.8209%12.8309%4730
1610.1541%14.5779%5374

Rensselaer - 81.9697% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.2260%0.4991%184
123.5020%9.4401%3480
1316.6538%25.6321%9449
1420.4657%28.1548%10379
1541.1222%11.7974%4349
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1542%3.4966%1289
157.5899%15.1069%5569
169.9234%5.6586%2086
170.3629%0.2143%79

Western Michigan - 63.2107% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1010.1078%12.9937%4790
1119.7279%25.6782%9466
129.6606%12.2043%4499
1314.1575%14.1140%5203
142.9978%3.6350%1340
156.5589%2.5553%942
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0605%0.7487%276
151.0599%2.6367%972
168.6335%5.8621%2161
1718.9419%11.7486%4331
188.0934%7.8234%2884

RIT - 54.9371% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0763%3.0789%1135
154.2300%18.7554%6914
1650.6308%28.1657%10383
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0040%0.0353%13
2117.8984%16.5446%6099
2223.2423%13.3274%4913
239.6040%12.8608%4741
243.5485%4.0392%1489
250.1414%1.1936%440
260.6149%2.8185%1039
273.8667%4.3837%1616
2818.1872%19.6723%7252
2919.1747%16.9298%6241
301.0875%4.2209%1556
312.6304%3.9741%1465

Dartmouth - 48.7799% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0514%0.0977%36
119.6076%9.2448%3408
1210.4478%13.1592%4851
138.8210%6.3314%2334
1413.2788%6.9499%2562
156.5734%2.4333%897
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0162%0.8816%325
151.3327%5.6803%2094
1630.5715%21.1697%7804
179.9154%9.1526%3374
186.2536%12.8445%4735
192.9685%10.7910%3978
200.1470%1.0064%371
210.0151%0.2577%95

Air Force - 30.1616% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0433%1.5625%576
152.3236%9.3750%3456
1627.7948%14.0625%5184
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0027%0.0163%6
217.0546%6.6623%2456
2219.6448%11.7839%4344
230.1268%0.5100%188
243.1094%5.8512%2157
250.1559%0.1492%55
260.0674%0.0271%10
270.4794%1.0037%370
287.9687%4.3294%1596
2924.3974%21.1317%7790
3034.0740%34.9772%12894
312.9190%13.5579%4998

Holy Cross - 14.9013% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.4061%6.2500%2304
1614.4952%18.7500%6912
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
372.2337%5.7373%2115
389.3597%13.3762%4931
393.3102%5.9625%2198
4023.9998%24.9240%9188
4161.0966%50.0000%18432

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.5830%6.2500%2304
1510.4888%18.7500%6912
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
209.1664%20.2420%7462
211.2651%3.2335%1192
220.6740%1.5598%575
230.1705%0.1004%37
241.6148%1.3970%515
257.1534%5.8051%2140
2612.0288%9.7602%3598
2724.1522%20.0168%7379
2816.6734%10.1535%3743
2917.1131%8.3442%3076
305.3521%9.3045%3430
313.7219%7.0557%2601
320.9107%3.0165%1112
330.0034%0.0109%4

Boston University - 6.0705% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.5095%0.6755%249
154.5610%1.8690%689
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
152.4133%6.8007%2507
1634.0362%39.6783%14627
1756.2668%49.7938%18356
181.2132%1.1827%436

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0239%1.6086%593
150.8876%9.3696%3454
164.3537%14.0218%5169
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.0212%0.2875%106
230.0059%0.1763%65
240.6925%3.6513%1346
251.1394%5.4660%2015
261.0336%5.2544%1937
271.4096%5.0293%1854
280.9631%5.1351%1893
290.0917%0.3255%120
304.5156%10.0315%3698
318.4757%14.6430%5398
320.0080%0.0326%12
3336.7231%12.4430%4587
3444.9205%37.5244%13833

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7255%25.0000%9216
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
452.5954%24.0289%8858
460.1301%0.9711%358
4997.2745%75.0000%27648

Maine - 0.6141% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2693%0.1194%44
150.3448%0.1438%53
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2472%0.3147%116
163.3165%4.2372%1562
1714.5130%29.0907%10724
1875.1690%57.6335%21246
196.1402%8.4608%3119