Prediction if Miami wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Miami100.0000%4
Michigan100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%5
Union100.0000%8
Merrimack100.0000%9
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%9
New Hampshire99.9988%11
Notre Dame99.9903%10
Nebraska-Omaha94.8431%13
Colorado College90.3344%14
Rensselaer82.3867%15
Western Michigan63.0676%11
RIT54.9371%16
Dartmouth47.8507%14
Air Force30.1616%16
Holy Cross14.9013%16
Cornell8.9738%15
Boston University6.6017%15
Northeastern5.2652%16
Maine0.6878%15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1100.0000%100.0000%18432

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
270.1821%81.2500%14976
329.8179%18.7500%3456

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
229.8179%18.7500%3456
360.5605%56.2500%10368
49.6216%25.0000%4608

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
39.6216%25.0000%4608
447.0640%31.2500%5760
520.5677%20.8333%3840
618.8968%18.7500%3456
73.8499%4.1667%768

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
427.5694%21.8750%4032
524.7296%22.8841%4218
620.5679%22.3958%4128
721.8759%22.4284%4134
85.2572%10.4167%1920

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
45.0671%9.3750%1728
542.6283%43.6903%8053
636.7533%33.3930%6155
715.5514%13.5417%2496

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
62.4419%5.1053%941
723.0221%24.4792%4512
873.7301%67.4533%12433
90.7618%2.6964%497
100.0442%0.2658%49

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
410.6780%12.5000%2304
512.0744%12.5922%2321
618.8262%17.6161%3247
721.3617%20.9256%3857
814.4375%11.9303%2199
921.3806%23.3398%4302
101.2417%1.0959%202

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
83.4083%2.5825%476
954.2738%49.0994%9050
1036.3302%40.0174%7376
115.9876%8.3008%1530

New Hampshire - 99.9988% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
62.5140%2.7398%505
714.3390%14.4586%2665
82.7542%6.0655%1118
90.2914%1.7361%320
106.0633%10.9266%2014
1143.4439%30.9625%5707
1222.2810%18.7609%3458
136.4128%9.3750%1728
141.7173%4.3077%794
150.1820%0.5805%107
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.0012%0.0868%16

Notre Dame - 99.9903% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.4126%1.5516%286
923.2925%23.1283%4263
1045.9211%34.7711%6409
1117.2571%15.3592%2831
1212.0132%19.4010%3576
130.6439%3.5319%651
140.4246%1.7578%324
150.0253%0.1302%24
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0056%0.2604%48
150.0041%0.1085%20

Nebraska-Omaha - 94.8431% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1219.2221%6.4833%1195
1342.2271%29.5519%5447
1417.9619%22.6183%4169
1515.4320%17.1821%3167
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1101%2.2407%413
152.0846%13.3030%2452
162.9622%8.6209%1589

Colorado College - 90.3344% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.2649%0.4557%84
114.3099%7.6172%1404
1225.3731%20.5078%3780
1312.4780%16.3845%3020
1441.4442%25.8572%4766
156.4643%8.6643%1597
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2187%1.8229%336
151.5099%8.6751%1599
167.9370%10.0152%1846

Rensselaer - 82.3867% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.1553%0.4015%74
122.6283%9.2122%1698
1315.2829%23.9909%4422
1419.2047%28.4993%5253
1545.1156%18.4245%3396
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1220%1.4540%268
156.6181%11.4692%2114
1610.4717%6.1740%1138
170.4015%0.3743%69

Western Michigan - 63.0676% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1010.0772%12.2721%2262
1120.3472%25.9006%4774
129.6819%12.2884%2265
1314.1073%15.3049%2821
142.5848%4.1504%765
156.2692%3.0328%559
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0161%0.4720%87
150.8169%2.0345%375
168.8731%6.0221%1110
1719.3866%11.2522%2074
187.8397%7.2700%1340

RIT - 54.9371% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
152.8926%12.5000%2304
1652.0445%37.5000%6912
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2118.6775%19.9164%3671
2223.5043%10.1183%1865
239.1088%12.9123%2380
243.1256%3.8303%706
250.1351%1.4540%268
260.4306%1.8555%342
273.5029%3.6458%672
2817.8230%20.7628%3827
2919.7972%17.0302%3139
301.1351%4.3077%794
312.7599%4.1667%768

Dartmouth - 47.8507% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0576%0.1953%36
118.4990%11.4583%2112
128.8005%13.3464%2460
138.8480%1.8609%343
1414.3354%5.3711%990
157.3101%4.3457%801
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
151.0919%2.1539%397
1633.5224%24.7396%4560
179.7539%10.3407%1906
186.7166%18.7446%3455
190.9784%6.9770%1286
200.0862%0.4666%86

Air Force - 30.1616% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
151.5881%6.2500%1152
1628.5735%18.7500%3456
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
217.4227%8.6317%1591
2219.9108%9.5757%1765
230.1215%0.5425%100
242.5672%6.1632%1136
250.0646%0.0380%7
260.0749%0.0488%9
270.3229%0.3364%62
287.2012%3.8466%709
2924.1216%22.0812%4070
3035.3117%36.1274%6659
312.8810%12.6085%2324

Holy Cross - 14.9013% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1614.9013%25.0000%4608
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
372.4104%7.7365%1426
389.6721%13.5851%2504
392.8188%3.6784%678
4024.0021%25.0000%4608
4161.0966%50.0000%9216

Cornell - 8.9738% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.4725%6.2500%1152
158.5013%18.7500%3456
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
208.0582%22.7973%4202
210.9156%2.2027%406
220.0377%0.0597%11
230.1906%0.1736%32
241.7904%1.7578%324
257.9178%6.7220%1239
2613.1379%9.2339%1702
2725.2289%15.4785%2853
2818.0615%10.7856%1988
2917.8747%10.6988%1972
302.2062%6.3585%1172
313.5613%7.7257%1424
321.0154%5.9842%1103
330.0038%0.0217%4

Boston University - 6.6017% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.5529%0.9494%175
155.0488%3.6024%664
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
151.3782%5.3819%992
1632.8532%38.2975%7059
1757.8082%49.4032%9106
181.3587%2.3655%436

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.7846%6.2500%1152
164.4806%18.7500%3456
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.0209%0.3092%57
230.0015%0.0217%4
240.6648%2.9839%550
251.1050%4.9045%904
261.0447%5.4199%999
271.4461%5.5176%1017
280.9822%5.8431%1077
290.0211%0.2062%38
304.3664%10.3190%1902
318.6956%14.4748%2668
3339.5811%18.5547%3420
3442.0707%31.4453%5796

Maine - 0.6878% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.3016%0.2387%44
150.3862%0.2875%53
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2616%0.5371%99
163.3805%6.1306%1130
1712.6497%28.6296%5277
1877.2093%57.0855%10522
195.8111%7.0909%1307