Prediction if Holy Cross wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

Team	Likelihood	Most Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale	100.0000%	1
North Dakota	100.0000%	2
Boston College	100.0000%	3
Michigan	100.0000%	4
Miami	100.0000%	4
Denver	100.0000%	6
Union	100.0000%	8
Merrimack	100.0000%	9
Minnesota-Duluth	100.0000%	10
Notre Dame	99.9926%	10
New Hampshire	99.9912%	11
Nebraska-Omaha	91.3113%	13
Colorado College	90.0892%	14
Rensselaer	66.7884%	15
Western Michigan	64.5581%	11
Dartmouth	51.4178%	14
Holy Cross	44.0358%	16
RIT	41.2457%	16
Connecticut	14.7185%	16
Cornell	11.0718%	15
Bemidji State	9.1842%	15
Boston University	6.9162%	15
Northeastern	5.2652%	15
Colgate	2.7255%	16
Maine	0.6885%	15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	89.4447%	25.9579%	76553
2	4.8130%	11.5241%	33986
3	5.7370%	12.4335%	36668
4	0.0053%	0.0844%	249

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	6.3979%	15.3246%	45194
2	64.5272%	21.3081%	62840
3	29.0749%	13.3674%	39422

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	4.1574%	8.7175%	25709
2	30.6589%	17.1495%	50576
3	58.7115%	20.5366%	60565
4	6.4722%	3.5963%	10606

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
2	0.0010%	0.0183%	54
3	2.0333%	0.4561%	1345
4	36.3341%	16.7379%	49362
5	29.4654%	15.2018%	44832
6	15.0571%	6.6718%	19676
7	10.9440%	4.6394%	13682
8	4.2344%	4.6119%	13601
9	1.6478%	1.3590%	4008
10	0.2829%	0.3038%	896

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
3	4.4432%	3.2064%	9456
4	27.1298%	13.7553%	40566
5	21.3184%	11.3481%	33467
6	20.9299%	8.8304%	26042
7	11.6654%	3.7157%	10958
8	8.0836%	3.7150%	10956
9	5.9363%	4.8767%	14382
10	0.4934%	0.5524%	1629

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	10.8518%	5.2141%	15377
5	28.7382%	12.6326%	37255
6	30.1830%	13.9937%	41269
7	20.5987%	11.8164%	34848
8	8.5944%	5.6610%	16695
9	0.7550%	0.4476%	1320
10	0.2789%	0.2346%	692

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.0212%	0.0766%	226
6	3.9735%	4.4763%	13201
7	24.5571%	15.3581%	45293
8	53.6848%	22.6708%	66859
9	16.4377%	6.9950%	20629
10	1.3257%	0.4232%	1248

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	16.3850%	9.3706%	27635
5	11.9856%	5.3053%	15646
6	14.7045%	7.1147%	20982
7	17.9789%	7.7976%	22996
8	15.7747%	6.1456%	18124
9	18.8256%	11.1206%	32796
10	4.3457%	3.1457%	9277

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
7	0.0044%	0.0068%	20
8	3.4758%	1.9257%	5679
9	28.0493%	12.4773%	36797
10	55.8902%	27.3485%	80654
11	12.5802%	8.2418%	24306

Notre Dame - 99.9926% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	2.8146%	1.2397%	3656
5	7.2774%	4.1497%	12238
6	8.9884%	4.4871%	13233
7	5.7704%	3.0338%	8947
8	3.7874%	3.0809%	9086
9	27.2962%	12.2582%	36151
10	28.3004%	11.3139%	33366
11	9.1412%	4.5485%	13414
12	5.9841%	4.6299%	13654
13	0.3638%	0.6894%	2033
14	0.2552%	0.4035%	1190
15	0.0134%	0.0163%	48
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0002%	0.0139%	41
14	0.0050%	0.1217%	359
15	0.0022%	0.0136%	40

New Hampshire - 99.9912% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	0.0071%	0.0017%	5
5	1.1938%	1.2858%	3792
6	6.1637%	4.4261%	13053
7	8.4812%	3.6323%	10712
8	2.3648%	2.1891%	6456
9	1.0520%	0.4656%	1373
10	3.7740%	3.3830%	9977
11	44.6782%	18.0701%	53291
12	23.7159%	10.4360%	30777
13	7.1956%	4.3884%	12942
14	1.2417%	1.4733%	4345
15	0.1231%	0.1390%	410
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0005%	0.0210%	62
14	0.0075%	0.0749%	221
15	0.0008%	0.0136%	40

Nebraska-Omaha - 91.3113% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
12	17.5052%	3.1623%	9326
13	41.1986%	13.6810%	40347
14	19.7268%	9.0288%	26627
15	12.8808%	4.2959%	12669
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0222%	0.4754%	1402
14	0.6140%	3.6302%	10706
15	4.0119%	10.7649%	31747
16	4.0405%	4.9615%	14632

Colorado College - 90.0892% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.1607%	0.1241%	366
11	4.5813%	3.2461%	9573
12	25.0480%	11.1891%	32998
13	15.4571%	8.2696%	24388
14	37.9833%	9.4014%	27726
15	6.8588%	2.2939%	6765
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0131%	0.2496%	736
14	0.7442%	3.2657%	9631
15	2.6925%	6.0381%	17807
16	6.4610%	5.9224%	17466

Rensselaer - 66.7884% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	0.1926%	0.2964%	874
12	2.4240%	3.1762%	9367
13	11.8674%	10.1186%	29841
14	20.4997%	12.0721%	35602
15	31.8047%	4.5020%	13277
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0244%	0.5720%	1687
14	0.7325%	3.9493%	11647
15	10.9952%	10.2319%	30175
16	20.0067%	4.8720%	14368
17	1.4526%	0.2096%	618

Western Michigan - 64.5581% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	5.1175%	3.1464%	9279
11	20.2300%	11.9649%	35286
12	13.9073%	9.7026%	28614
13	14.3600%	7.6633%	22600
14	4.1853%	1.8341%	5409
15	6.7581%	0.7341%	2165
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0054%	0.1628%	480
14	0.0990%	0.3618%	1067
15	1.1638%	1.2550%	3701
16	5.8920%	2.8263%	8335
17	19.2858%	6.4585%	19047
18	8.8460%	3.6268%	10696
19	0.1498%	0.2635%	777

Dartmouth - 51.4178% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.0306%	0.0244%	72
11	8.5965%	3.6323%	10712
12	11.4155%	7.7040%	22720
13	9.4908%	3.6272%	10697
14	11.7418%	2.8731%	8473
15	10.1426%	1.2407%	3659
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0007%	0.0678%	200
14	0.0653%	0.9837%	2901
15	2.8373%	3.2694%	9642
16	24.2169%	8.7575%	25827
17	11.4964%	4.6492%	13711
18	5.8034%	5.2433%	15463
19	3.3079%	5.0249%	14819
20	0.7003%	2.6103%	7698
21	0.1267%	0.2462%	726
22	0.0274%	0.0461%	136

Holy Cross - 44.0358% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	1.2002%	6.2500%	18432
16	42.8356%	18.7500%	55296
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
37	5.5560%	3.7625%	11096
38	17.6875%	8.1689%	24091
39	20.8774%	13.3023%	39230
40	55.6844%	24.6894%	72812
41	0.1947%	0.0770%	227

RIT - 41.2457% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0592%	0.7812%	2304
15	3.1775%	4.6875%	13824
16	38.0090%	7.0312%	20736
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
21	19.9996%	4.8740%	14374
22	13.9493%	3.8408%	11327
23	6.0475%	2.6184%	7722
24	0.6796%	0.4120%	1215
25	0.5696%	0.7548%	2226
26	0.2341%	0.4062%	1198
27	6.9132%	2.1651%	6385
28	21.5313%	11.8679%	35000
29	28.4867%	17.9888%	53051
30	1.5890%	5.0720%	14958

Connecticut - 14.7185% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.4012%	3.1250%	9216
16	14.3174%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
42	13.3456%	12.0277%	35471
43	1.3730%	0.4723%	1393
45	35.8684%	21.1334%	62325
46	48.6357%	14.5935%	43038
47	0.7773%	1.7731%	5229

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.5830%	3.1250%	9216
15	10.4888%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	7.0836%	7.5019%	22124
21	3.3351%	4.0131%	11835
22	0.8787%	1.0335%	3048
23	0.0012%	0.0014%	4
24	4.2020%	0.9989%	2946
25	7.0980%	2.2407%	6608
26	17.6478%	10.8195%	31908
27	25.2988%	8.4171%	24823
28	16.4622%	4.3867%	12937
29	8.8287%	1.8809%	5547
30	5.1619%	4.3657%	12875
31	3.1273%	3.0941%	9125
32	0.8674%	1.2329%	3636
33	0.0074%	0.0136%	40

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0667%	1.5625%	4608
14	1.6173%	6.2500%	18432
15	7.5002%	4.6875%	13824
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
17	0.0001%	0.0003%	1
18	1.8637%	2.8090%	8284
19	2.0628%	2.6859%	7921
20	5.2764%	7.0228%	20711
21	1.1218%	0.5998%	1769
22	17.1346%	7.7220%	22773
23	18.9926%	8.4442%	24903
24	15.7533%	4.2423%	12511
25	12.3730%	7.5402%	22237
26	20.1341%	7.1191%	20995
27	5.2814%	1.7649%	5205
28	0.0063%	0.0495%	146

Boston University - 6.9162% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	1.7740%	0.3686%	1087
15	5.1422%	0.7660%	2259
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0714%	0.1044%	308
15	3.8645%	4.1768%	12318
16	35.9769%	20.4919%	60433
17	52.3755%	23.7993%	70187
18	0.7954%	0.2930%	864

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0843%	2.3438%	6912
15	3.0684%	7.8125%	23040
16	2.1125%	2.3438%	6912
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
22	0.3351%	0.6304%	1859
23	0.0576%	0.1980%	584
24	0.9671%	1.9087%	5629
25	1.1877%	2.4394%	7194
26	1.2280%	2.9090%	8579
27	1.0071%	2.9714%	8763
28	0.4677%	1.3828%	4078
29	0.3974%	0.7945%	2343
30	4.7783%	5.9438%	17529
31	7.9222%	5.8221%	17170
32	6.9142%	2.0189%	5954
33	54.4619%	11.0541%	32600
34	20.2756%	11.9269%	35174

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
16	2.7255%	12.5000%	36864
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
45	1.7533%	6.1039%	18001
46	0.9434%	6.2958%	18567
47	0.0288%	0.1004%	296
49	97.2745%	37.5000%	110592

Maine - 0.6885% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.2484%	0.0451%	133
15	0.4401%	0.0746%	220
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0048%	0.0081%	24
15	0.2680%	0.1743%	514
16	3.4059%	2.1684%	6395
17	15.3896%	14.8831%	43892
18	72.7764%	27.6221%	81461
19	7.2037%	4.7211%	13923
20	0.2631%	0.3031%	894