Overall predictions - Minnesota-Duluth and Alaska-Anchorage Win Play-ins

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Miami100.0000%4
Michigan100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%7
Merrimack100.0000%8
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%9
Union100.0000%9
Notre Dame100.0000%10
New Hampshire99.9996%11
Nebraska-Omaha98.4573%13
Rensselaer94.8485%14
Western Michigan89.7165%15
Dartmouth62.8654%12
RIT55.3562%16
Air Force24.7723%16
Colorado College18.1916%15
Holy Cross12.0521%16
Cornell11.0941%15
Boston University8.3915%15
Connecticut7.8194%16
Alaska-Anchorage7.4036%14
Northeastern5.2644%16
Colgate2.7222%16
Maine1.0452%14

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.3987%51.2299%151083
24.9158%23.4022%69016
35.6823%25.3052%74628
40.0033%0.0627%185

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.3507%31.1924%91990
263.9654%41.8705%123481
329.6839%26.9372%79441

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
14.2506%17.5778%51839
231.1182%34.7114%102368
358.1731%40.6762%119959
46.4581%7.0346%20746

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
34.4323%6.2690%18488
426.2381%24.7464%72980
517.0954%17.4917%51585
621.3687%19.7079%58121
714.9561%11.9619%35277
86.9246%4.5135%13311
91.4599%3.1565%9309
106.8017%10.4736%30888
110.7233%1.6795%4953

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
20.0007%0.0159%47
32.0285%0.8124%2396
433.4226%27.7534%81848
528.0482%28.2376%83276
619.4269%19.7984%58388
79.1736%7.1564%21105
81.7294%3.8262%11284
94.0243%8.7280%25740
101.7669%2.8388%8372
110.3789%0.8328%2456

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
48.1483%10.5662%31161
520.2968%20.7848%61297
618.3729%20.1155%59323
722.9011%21.6546%63862
819.0629%17.6131%51943
910.1042%8.5812%25307
100.7231%0.2580%761
110.3905%0.4266%1258

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
414.4449%15.6277%46088
59.5622%9.2278%27214
611.0261%7.4541%21983
711.8386%11.7635%34692
819.4683%17.7436%52328
914.3416%15.0886%44498
1018.2309%21.8231%64359
111.0875%1.2716%3750

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
49.0219%12.8404%37868
519.2362%18.0484%53227
615.5646%14.6895%43321
76.7882%9.2041%27144
814.6700%16.1469%47619
926.9448%23.2113%68453
106.5767%4.6875%13824
111.1975%1.1719%3456

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
62.0261%5.1761%15265
717.4902%22.4013%66064
832.6571%31.2212%92075
938.4609%32.3324%95352
108.3920%8.1953%24169
110.9735%0.6738%1987

Notre Dame - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
42.2628%1.3685%4036
55.4321%5.9130%17438
69.5025%10.0732%29707
76.2901%6.4460%19010
81.4018%1.7276%5095
93.1379%5.2202%15395
1048.7630%38.6736%114053
1116.5243%17.8904%52761
126.0800%9.1753%27059
130.5850%3.4214%10090
140.0204%0.0909%268

New Hampshire - 99.9996% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.3290%0.2967%875
62.7121%2.9853%8804
710.5620%9.4123%27758
84.0858%7.2079%21257
91.5263%3.6818%10858
103.3316%6.1574%18159
1146.8061%36.7577%108403
1219.6883%19.2841%56871
138.2690%11.2705%33238
142.6892%2.9293%8639
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0004%0.0170%50

Nebraska-Omaha - 98.4573% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1214.3642%5.3870%15887
1345.2805%35.8063%105597
1426.8338%28.9551%85392
1511.9788%11.6892%34473
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2630%7.1194%20996
151.0619%9.8789%29134
160.2179%1.1641%3433

Rensselaer - 94.8485% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0008%0.0061%18
110.6920%1.9752%5825
1213.7336%18.3061%53987
1328.5894%28.3105%83491
1437.6710%30.1598%88945
1514.1616%6.9041%20361
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1845%1.8840%5556
151.4392%8.9067%26267
162.4984%3.0551%9010
170.8810%0.4049%1194
180.1473%0.0861%254
190.0012%0.0014%4

Western Michigan - 89.7165% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
105.4133%6.8865%20309
1122.3436%29.1097%85848
1214.4000%22.1788%65408
1310.4717%10.1562%29952
1411.1455%6.3439%18709
1525.9424%5.4142%15967
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1205%0.7738%2282
152.9702%6.0201%17754
162.5700%4.9462%14587
172.0672%3.2366%9545
182.3424%3.8883%11467
190.2130%1.0457%3084

Dartmouth - 62.8654% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
118.8828%8.2109%24215
1230.0443%22.8116%67274
134.5635%7.3683%21730
1413.6437%9.9670%29394
155.7311%2.9175%8604
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0137%1.2990%3831
150.9500%6.5765%19395
1613.8248%3.7303%11001
1710.5512%9.1024%26844
188.2697%12.3501%36422
192.5853%9.7087%28632
200.7400%4.4993%13269
210.1999%1.4584%4301

RIT - 55.3562% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0752%1.5191%4480
154.2550%9.3723%27640
1651.0260%14.1086%41608
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0006%0.0010%3
200.0008%0.0034%10
2117.0282%8.1838%24135
2227.3834%7.1499%21086
239.9217%7.6565%22580
240.3690%0.4428%1306
250.9611%2.3753%7005
262.1326%3.7347%11014
271.2668%4.3725%12895
288.0527%10.9399%32263
2920.3008%28.1613%83051
3010.6019%20.9229%61704
311.9804%6.0560%17860

Air Force - 24.7723% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0355%1.5625%4608
151.9075%9.3750%27648
1622.8293%14.0625%41472
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0017%0.0095%28
214.7804%5.7566%16977
2213.5695%9.9257%29272
230.0847%0.4439%1309
244.8494%7.2330%21331
251.6011%2.2756%6711
261.1292%2.2712%6698
274.8999%4.2141%12428
289.9627%8.3828%24722
2922.1222%13.1690%38837
3033.8290%31.9387%94191
313.1701%14.3799%42408

Colorado College - 18.1916% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.0219%0.0064%19
130.1010%0.0244%72
140.5134%0.2506%739
1517.5554%5.6800%16751
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0006%0.0031%9
157.8432%18.0817%53325
1641.9311%46.2511%136400
1729.4893%24.7260%72920
182.5226%4.9340%14551
190.0217%0.0427%126

Holy Cross - 12.0521% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3281%6.2500%18432
1611.7240%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
372.5113%5.5745%16440
385.1952%9.0332%26640
394.3469%10.4048%30685
4026.8128%24.9281%73516
4161.1337%50.0593%147631

Cornell - 11.0941% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.5840%6.2500%18432
1510.5101%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
214.2284%13.0554%38502
226.8999%11.9873%35352
230.1207%0.0224%66
243.8719%4.7631%14047
2525.7848%20.7835%61293
2611.1263%13.5125%39850
2723.4919%11.2745%33250
287.7547%4.9160%14498
296.7117%1.9850%5854
304.9985%6.4436%19003
313.3645%7.0774%20872
321.4943%3.3678%9932
330.1524%0.8114%2393

Boston University - 8.3915% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.5401%0.3625%1069
143.1765%2.4967%7363
154.6750%2.2790%6721
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1055%0.8365%2467
153.3911%7.7589%22882
1634.3872%30.2901%89329
1747.0928%42.8853%126474
186.5362%12.7346%37556
190.0957%0.3564%1051

Connecticut - 7.8194% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2129%6.2500%18432
167.6066%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
427.4149%24.4008%71961
430.4046%0.5992%1767
4523.1062%34.5920%102016
4667.8506%34.2675%101059
471.2238%6.1405%18109

Alaska-Anchorage - 7.4036% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
121.6677%2.8507%8407
131.3387%3.1687%9345
143.0175%5.9469%17538
151.3797%2.4055%7094
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0120%0.4907%1447
150.2576%3.9049%11516
161.1665%6.2327%18381
180.8885%4.7095%13889
1928.0014%27.8843%82234
2059.7045%40.9838%120866
212.5659%1.4225%4195

Northeastern - 5.2644% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0326%3.1684%9344
151.1399%12.5027%36872
164.0920%9.3289%27512
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.0810%0.7216%2128
230.0169%0.3767%1111
241.5389%7.7888%22970
251.7682%8.5205%25128
261.4021%5.3745%15850
270.2908%1.3618%4016
280.3078%1.3950%4114
290.9034%1.7354%5118
303.9405%8.8165%26001
318.0934%13.9092%41020
320.4945%0.6694%1974
3339.4975%15.9105%46922
3441.6651%33.4201%98560

Colgate - 2.7222% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7222%25.0000%73728
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
452.0437%11.9297%35182
460.6497%12.5854%37116
470.0288%0.4849%1430
4997.2778%75.0000%221184

Maine - 1.0452% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.2610%0.1112%328
140.5616%0.3598%1061
150.2225%0.2106%621
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0273%0.0766%226
150.4402%1.3723%4047
163.4042%4.3304%12771
179.9184%19.6448%57935
1877.1890%56.2703%165948
197.7612%16.5894%48924
200.2146%1.0345%3051