Overall predictions - Minnesota-Duluth and Colorado College Win Play-ins

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Michigan100.0000%4
Miami100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%7
Merrimack100.0000%8
Union100.0000%9
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%9
New Hampshire99.9981%11
Notre Dame99.9939%10
Nebraska-Omaha93.2729%13
Colorado College91.1489%14
Rensselaer69.5260%15
Western Michigan65.7790%11
RIT55.3562%16
Dartmouth53.5792%14
Air Force24.7723%16
Holy Cross12.0521%16
Cornell11.0941%15
Connecticut7.8194%16
Boston University6.9060%15
Northeastern5.2644%16
Colgate2.7222%16
Maine0.7152%15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.4333%51.6524%152329
25.0305%23.2676%68619
35.5351%25.0692%73932
40.0010%0.0109%32

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.1918%30.8495%90979
263.2304%42.2774%124681
330.5779%26.8731%79252

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
14.3749%17.4981%51604
231.7389%34.4516%101602
357.4200%40.9197%120677
46.4662%7.1306%21029

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
20.0002%0.0034%10
32.0271%0.7887%2326
433.4902%27.8446%82117
527.9575%28.3664%83656
619.5867%19.7534%58255
79.0266%6.9319%20443
81.7323%3.8188%11262
94.0289%8.7911%25926
101.7712%2.8666%8454
110.3793%0.8352%2463

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
34.4399%6.3494%18725
426.2480%24.6494%72694
517.0363%17.4557%51479
621.2382%19.6211%57865
715.0141%11.9934%35370
86.9916%4.4451%13109
91.4300%2.9999%8847
106.8735%10.7463%31692
110.7285%1.7398%5131

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
48.1488%10.5645%31156
520.1761%20.7381%61159
618.3315%19.7015%58102
722.4755%20.7340%61147
819.5903%18.1410%53500
99.9896%9.2146%27175
100.8983%0.3913%1154
110.3899%0.5151%1519

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
414.4630%15.6301%46095
59.9932%9.2984%27422
610.9079%7.5833%22364
711.7370%11.6330%34307
819.2548%17.5754%51832
914.3778%15.2439%44956
1018.1677%21.7214%64059
111.0986%1.3146%3877

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
61.9552%5.0608%14925
717.0073%21.9981%64875
832.6332%31.6640%93381
939.0345%32.4938%95828
108.2601%7.9956%23580
111.1098%0.7877%2323

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
48.9537%12.7865%37709
518.8084%17.7619%52382
615.8015%14.8505%43796
76.9840%9.1973%27124
814.7240%16.2771%48003
926.9502%23.2673%68618
106.5786%4.6875%13824
111.1996%1.1719%3456

New Hampshire - 99.9981% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.2750%0.1943%573
62.7828%3.5190%10378
711.6489%11.1552%32898
83.6859%6.4219%18939
91.0167%2.6761%7892
103.2805%6.0852%17946
1145.2649%36.4214%107411
1223.6613%21.1921%62498
137.0623%8.8691%26156
141.2055%3.1141%9184
150.1143%0.2940%867
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0004%0.0264%78
150.0014%0.0312%92

Notre Dame - 99.9939% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
42.2290%1.3835%4080
55.7535%6.1852%18241
69.3963%9.9104%29227
76.1066%6.3572%18748
81.3880%1.6568%4886
93.1724%5.3134%15670
1048.7592%38.6007%113838
1116.3881%17.4686%51517
126.2279%10.4428%30797
130.3502%1.5557%4588
140.2116%0.8084%2384
150.0111%0.0326%96
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0043%0.2577%760
150.0018%0.0271%80

Nebraska-Omaha - 93.2729% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1216.8608%4.8370%14265
1342.4429%29.5451%87132
1420.0471%21.3603%62994
1513.9221%11.3251%33399
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2243%4.0103%11827
152.7107%18.9514%55890
163.7921%9.9708%29405

Colorado College - 91.1489% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.1330%0.2452%723
113.7965%6.5389%19284
1225.4047%22.9831%67780
1314.5506%16.8596%49721
1439.4480%23.3012%68718
157.8161%6.6650%19656
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2552%2.7395%8079
151.8746%9.5011%28020
166.7213%11.1664%32931

Rensselaer - 69.5260% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.2194%0.4015%1184
122.4607%6.2008%18287
1311.9897%20.4373%60272
1419.8070%26.9182%79385
1535.0491%11.8028%34808
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1777%3.9568%11669
157.8962%17.9515%52941
1619.1783%11.3980%33614
173.2219%0.9332%2752

Western Michigan - 65.7790% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
105.2525%6.6115%19498
1120.7747%25.5242%75274
1213.9204%19.2142%56665
1314.2103%15.2456%44961
144.3936%4.0253%11871
157.2274%1.8168%5358
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0443%0.4740%1398
150.9677%2.3312%6875
167.9291%6.0435%17823
1721.1518%13.1219%38698
184.1282%5.5918%16491

RIT - 55.3562% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0751%1.5123%4460
154.2107%9.2990%27424
1651.0704%14.1886%41844
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0015%0.0034%10
200.0066%0.0305%90
2118.8166%8.8077%25975
2225.8752%6.8227%20121
239.6243%6.9638%20537
240.3827%0.8158%2406
250.9722%2.3675%6982
261.6077%1.7415%5136
271.4812%4.7672%14059
286.4913%9.8378%29013
2921.8645%29.2687%86317
3010.8763%22.3833%66011
311.9999%6.1900%18255

Dartmouth - 53.5792% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0254%0.0488%144
118.6507%7.2812%21473
1211.4641%15.1299%44620
139.3940%7.4877%22082
1412.4957%7.1153%20984
1511.5494%3.3908%10000
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0206%1.0349%3052
151.5601%5.9658%17594
1625.6288%18.3462%54105
179.8223%9.3228%27494
185.8716%11.0826%32684
193.3280%12.4040%36581
200.1764%1.1817%3485
210.0131%0.2082%614

Air Force - 24.7723% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0355%1.5625%4608
151.9073%9.3723%27640
1622.8295%14.0652%41480
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0025%0.0136%40
214.9893%6.0852%17946
2213.1365%8.9556%26411
230.2151%0.9386%2768
245.1341%7.5368%22227
251.3717%2.0382%6011
261.1069%1.9921%5875
274.1318%4.2124%12423
289.0905%7.6884%22674
2923.7130%13.8011%40701
3033.7496%31.7051%93502
313.3590%15.0330%44334

Holy Cross - 12.0521% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3281%6.2500%18432
1611.7240%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
372.7155%5.8122%17141
385.2488%9.3323%27522
394.0893%9.8694%29106
4026.8022%24.9095%73461
4161.1441%50.0766%147682

Cornell - 11.0941% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.5840%6.2500%18432
1510.5101%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
208.9109%19.2078%56646
211.7690%4.8140%14197
220.7535%1.4672%4327
230.9593%0.2174%641
244.6801%5.0401%14864
2524.5250%20.9164%61685
2611.9206%13.4210%39580
2722.8770%10.7717%31767
287.1056%4.8258%14232
296.9513%1.8534%5466
304.7957%6.6271%19544
313.5047%7.5382%22231
321.1721%3.0056%8864
330.0752%0.2943%868

Connecticut - 7.8194% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2129%6.2500%18432
167.6066%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
427.4063%24.3849%71914
430.4131%0.6151%1814
4523.9907%35.2115%103843
4666.9882%33.8379%99792
471.2017%5.9506%17549

Boston University - 6.9060% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.4207%0.7521%2218
155.4853%1.9796%5838
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0005%0.0003%1
153.0804%7.3747%21749
1634.0610%39.1754%115533
1754.8115%49.5477%146122
181.1407%1.1702%3451

Northeastern - 5.2644% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0327%3.1752%9364
151.1844%12.5787%37096
164.0473%9.2461%27268
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.2251%1.8833%5554
230.0424%0.6734%1986
241.4968%6.9312%20441
251.5430%7.4646%22014
261.4430%5.5484%16363
270.3355%1.5316%4517
280.3496%1.6246%4791
291.2270%2.4072%7099
304.3336%9.3269%27506
317.3470%12.6088%37185
321.6909%1.4842%4377
3339.4838%16.5032%48670
3440.4823%32.0126%94409

Colgate - 2.7222% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7222%25.0000%73728
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
452.0603%12.0341%35490
460.6371%12.5637%37052
470.0248%0.4022%1186
4997.2778%75.0000%221184

Maine - 0.7152% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2435%0.1051%310
150.4717%0.1933%570
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2605%0.3659%1079
162.6895%3.8998%11501
1710.9926%27.0745%79846
1878.9124%59.8406%176477
196.4297%8.5208%25129