Prediction if Merrimack wins its Semifinal
All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.
Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 1 | 89.5156% | 26.3662% | 77757 |
| 2 | 5.5185% | 14.6488% | 43201 |
| 3 | 4.9643% | 8.9623% | 26431 |
| 4 | 0.0017% | 0.0227% | 67 |
North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 1 | 5.2921% | 10.9070% | 32166 |
| 2 | 64.9351% | 21.7088% | 64022 |
| 3 | 29.7728% | 17.3842% | 51268 |
Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 1 | 5.1923% | 12.7268% | 37533 |
| 2 | 29.5464% | 13.6424% | 40233 |
| 3 | 60.8247% | 20.4668% | 60359 |
| 4 | 4.4366% | 3.1640% | 9331 |
Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 3 | 4.4366% | 3.1640% | 9331 |
| 4 | 25.7015% | 12.2169% | 36029 |
| 5 | 16.2681% | 9.4530% | 27878 |
| 6 | 21.0490% | 10.1708% | 29995 |
| 7 | 14.1750% | 4.4535% | 13134 |
| 8 | 9.5334% | 3.5285% | 10406 |
| 9 | 8.6942% | 6.8329% | 20151 |
| 10 | 0.1422% | 0.1804% | 532 |
Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 4 | 31.5282% | 18.7429% | 55275 |
| 5 | 22.6946% | 10.5950% | 31246 |
| 6 | 28.8150% | 14.1676% | 41782 |
| 7 | 16.9623% | 6.4945% | 19153 |
Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 3 | 0.0017% | 0.0227% | 67 |
| 4 | 28.0842% | 11.4465% | 33757 |
| 5 | 33.1145% | 17.1021% | 50436 |
| 6 | 14.9384% | 7.8871% | 23260 |
| 7 | 16.1694% | 5.8204% | 17165 |
| 8 | 5.4422% | 5.8607% | 17284 |
| 9 | 2.2496% | 1.8606% | 5487 |
Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 4 | 7.9645% | 3.5024% | 10329 |
| 5 | 24.2555% | 10.7690% | 31759 |
| 6 | 26.0599% | 12.9947% | 38323 |
| 7 | 34.7181% | 19.3502% | 57066 |
| 8 | 7.0020% | 3.3837% | 9979 |
Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 7 | 9.5624% | 9.3462% | 27563 |
| 8 | 71.7430% | 32.4022% | 95558 |
| 9 | 18.6923% | 8.2435% | 24311 |
| 10 | 0.0022% | 0.0081% | 24 |
Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 8 | 0.1857% | 0.2374% | 700 |
| 9 | 38.2076% | 17.6765% | 52130 |
| 10 | 61.6066% | 32.0862% | 94626 |
Notre Dame - 99.9928% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 4 | 2.2833% | 0.9047% | 2668 |
| 5 | 3.6673% | 2.0810% | 6137 |
| 6 | 9.1377% | 4.7797% | 14096 |
| 7 | 8.4127% | 4.5353% | 13375 |
| 8 | 6.0937% | 4.5875% | 13529 |
| 9 | 32.1563% | 15.3866% | 45377 |
| 10 | 29.4340% | 10.3156% | 30422 |
| 11 | 6.5086% | 3.6557% | 10781 |
| 12 | 2.0721% | 2.7978% | 8251 |
| 13 | 0.1100% | 0.4754% | 1402 |
| 14 | 0.1119% | 0.3248% | 958 |
| 15 | 0.0052% | 0.0109% | 32 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 13 | 0.0002% | 0.0125% | 37 |
| 14 | 0.0049% | 0.1217% | 359 |
| 15 | 0.0020% | 0.0109% | 32 |
New Hampshire - 99.9828% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 10 | 1.5197% | 2.7991% | 8255 |
| 11 | 44.5102% | 20.1270% | 59357 |
| 12 | 39.2616% | 16.0909% | 47454 |
| 13 | 12.2292% | 7.8223% | 23069 |
| 14 | 2.2365% | 2.7184% | 8017 |
| 15 | 0.2257% | 0.2357% | 695 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 13 | 0.0006% | 0.0258% | 76 |
| 14 | 0.0151% | 0.1536% | 453 |
| 15 | 0.0015% | 0.0271% | 80 |
Nebraska-Omaha - 91.1121% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 12 | 18.1319% | 3.3535% | 9890 |
| 13 | 40.3505% | 12.5831% | 37109 |
| 14 | 18.6811% | 8.4042% | 24785 |
| 15 | 13.9485% | 4.6838% | 13813 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 13 | 0.0214% | 0.4730% | 1395 |
| 14 | 0.6264% | 3.7866% | 11167 |
| 15 | 4.0887% | 11.6930% | 34484 |
| 16 | 4.1514% | 5.0229% | 14813 |
Colorado College - 89.8584% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 10 | 0.3020% | 0.2407% | 710 |
| 11 | 7.7768% | 5.0374% | 14856 |
| 12 | 23.1074% | 10.1115% | 29820 |
| 13 | 15.1300% | 7.5195% | 22176 |
| 14 | 37.4746% | 9.0651% | 26734 |
| 15 | 6.0676% | 2.1230% | 6261 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 13 | 0.0129% | 0.2533% | 747 |
| 14 | 0.7277% | 3.1786% | 9374 |
| 15 | 2.5971% | 6.1476% | 18130 |
| 16 | 6.8039% | 6.3232% | 18648 |
Rensselaer - 72.5275% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 11 | 0.2669% | 0.4703% | 1387 |
| 12 | 2.6911% | 4.3759% | 12905 |
| 13 | 12.0446% | 11.1410% | 32856 |
| 14 | 22.5131% | 12.5336% | 36963 |
| 15 | 35.0119% | 4.4657% | 13170 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 13 | 0.0237% | 0.5676% | 1674 |
| 14 | 0.7500% | 3.9880% | 11761 |
| 15 | 11.1731% | 9.3330% | 27524 |
| 16 | 15.5256% | 3.1250% | 9216 |
Western Michigan - 63.6854% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 10 | 6.9373% | 4.3264% | 12759 |
| 11 | 26.6354% | 15.2673% | 45025 |
| 12 | 8.7553% | 7.0757% | 20867 |
| 13 | 11.2406% | 5.9357% | 17505 |
| 14 | 3.9747% | 1.5605% | 4602 |
| 15 | 6.1421% | 0.7579% | 2235 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 13 | 0.0053% | 0.1628% | 480 |
| 14 | 0.0895% | 0.3699% | 1091 |
| 15 | 1.1639% | 1.2054% | 3555 |
| 16 | 6.2840% | 2.7167% | 8012 |
| 17 | 15.8947% | 5.4752% | 16147 |
| 18 | 12.6480% | 4.7835% | 14107 |
| 19 | 0.2291% | 0.3632% | 1071 |
Dartmouth - 49.9100% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 10 | 0.0560% | 0.0434% | 128 |
| 11 | 14.3022% | 5.4423% | 16050 |
| 12 | 5.9806% | 6.1947% | 18269 |
| 13 | 8.8301% | 2.9605% | 8731 |
| 14 | 11.4598% | 2.7283% | 8046 |
| 15 | 9.2813% | 1.1464% | 3381 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 13 | 0.0008% | 0.0675% | 199 |
| 14 | 0.0455% | 0.8426% | 2485 |
| 15 | 2.8423% | 3.2562% | 9603 |
| 16 | 24.9242% | 9.3299% | 27515 |
| 17 | 10.7967% | 4.5664% | 13467 |
| 18 | 6.5770% | 4.9683% | 14652 |
| 19 | 4.1568% | 5.8292% | 17191 |
| 20 | 0.5954% | 2.4292% | 7164 |
| 21 | 0.1266% | 0.1621% | 478 |
| 22 | 0.0247% | 0.0329% | 97 |
RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.0513% | 0.7812% | 2304 |
| 15 | 2.7746% | 4.6811% | 13805 |
| 16 | 33.9009% | 7.0377% | 20755 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 19 | 0.0007% | 0.0020% | 6 |
| 20 | 0.0149% | 0.0417% | 123 |
| 21 | 10.9528% | 3.1569% | 9310 |
| 22 | 12.5895% | 3.1148% | 9186 |
| 23 | 9.4385% | 3.2576% | 9607 |
| 24 | 3.1018% | 1.7341% | 5114 |
| 25 | 0.3025% | 0.6917% | 2040 |
| 26 | 0.4355% | 0.7402% | 2183 |
| 27 | 2.8720% | 1.2583% | 3711 |
| 28 | 17.2746% | 8.2404% | 24302 |
| 29 | 26.1101% | 15.1418% | 44655 |
| 30 | 14.3218% | 9.6673% | 28510 |
| 31 | 2.5853% | 2.9531% | 8709 |
Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.0469% | 0.7812% | 2304 |
| 15 | 2.5425% | 4.6875% | 13824 |
| 16 | 30.9993% | 7.0312% | 20736 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 20 | 0.0075% | 0.0146% | 43 |
| 21 | 6.1568% | 2.3746% | 7003 |
| 22 | 14.7445% | 2.9324% | 8648 |
| 23 | 2.5634% | 1.0674% | 3148 |
| 24 | 4.0266% | 2.1684% | 6395 |
| 25 | 4.5302% | 2.7598% | 8139 |
| 26 | 1.3326% | 1.0552% | 3112 |
| 27 | 2.6493% | 1.8395% | 5425 |
| 28 | 9.7249% | 4.7017% | 13866 |
| 29 | 17.6641% | 7.8196% | 23061 |
| 30 | 33.7281% | 16.1309% | 47572 |
| 31 | 2.8718% | 7.1357% | 21044 |
Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 15 | 0.4669% | 3.1250% | 9216 |
| 16 | 16.6645% | 9.3750% | 27648 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 37 | 2.9428% | 2.4038% | 7089 |
| 38 | 7.1887% | 4.5152% | 13316 |
| 39 | 7.0528% | 5.7716% | 17021 |
| 40 | 21.7191% | 12.3094% | 36302 |
| 41 | 61.0966% | 25.0000% | 73728 |
Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 15 | 0.3421% | 3.1250% | 9216 |
| 16 | 12.2111% | 9.3750% | 27648 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 42 | 12.5532% | 12.5000% | 36864 |
| 45 | 48.1560% | 26.2638% | 77455 |
| 46 | 39.0875% | 10.9402% | 32264 |
| 47 | 0.2033% | 0.2960% | 873 |
Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.5672% | 3.1250% | 9216 |
| 15 | 10.5046% | 9.3750% | 27648 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 20 | 7.4483% | 7.1465% | 21076 |
| 21 | 2.7855% | 4.3274% | 12762 |
| 22 | 0.8450% | 1.0274% | 3030 |
| 23 | 0.0715% | 0.0136% | 40 |
| 24 | 1.3170% | 0.4466% | 1317 |
| 25 | 3.7467% | 1.5259% | 4500 |
| 26 | 13.0681% | 8.4469% | 24911 |
| 27 | 27.0718% | 9.7985% | 28897 |
| 28 | 17.0311% | 4.6861% | 13820 |
| 29 | 14.5930% | 3.2789% | 9670 |
| 30 | 6.7055% | 3.7971% | 11198 |
| 31 | 4.0192% | 3.5916% | 10592 |
| 32 | 1.2632% | 1.8738% | 5526 |
| 33 | 0.0340% | 0.0397% | 117 |
Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 13 | 0.0649% | 1.5625% | 4608 |
| 14 | 1.6078% | 6.2500% | 18432 |
| 15 | 7.5114% | 4.6875% | 13824 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 17 | 0.0002% | 0.0007% | 2 |
| 18 | 0.4510% | 1.7805% | 5251 |
| 19 | 1.5190% | 2.8856% | 8510 |
| 20 | 7.2303% | 7.8491% | 23148 |
| 21 | 2.2308% | 0.9894% | 2918 |
| 22 | 17.2008% | 7.1516% | 21091 |
| 23 | 13.7605% | 7.8044% | 23016 |
| 24 | 17.7065% | 4.1690% | 12295 |
| 25 | 11.4247% | 6.6661% | 19659 |
| 26 | 23.9893% | 8.1753% | 24110 |
| 27 | 4.4531% | 2.3736% | 7000 |
| 28 | 0.0337% | 0.1546% | 456 |
Northeastern - 5.1231% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.0414% | 1.5625% | 4608 |
| 15 | 1.5829% | 6.2564% | 18451 |
| 16 | 3.4987% | 4.6811% | 13805 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 22 | 0.1091% | 0.2516% | 742 |
| 23 | 0.0399% | 0.1400% | 413 |
| 24 | 0.4887% | 1.0583% | 3121 |
| 25 | 0.8025% | 1.7066% | 5033 |
| 26 | 1.0584% | 2.4306% | 7168 |
| 27 | 1.5317% | 3.6713% | 10827 |
| 28 | 1.0424% | 2.9951% | 8833 |
| 29 | 0.1505% | 0.4747% | 1400 |
| 30 | 3.5835% | 4.1165% | 12140 |
| 31 | 9.5416% | 8.1553% | 24051 |
| 32 | 3.1612% | 1.0054% | 2965 |
| 33 | 28.5199% | 5.9943% | 17678 |
| 34 | 49.9706% | 18.0003% | 53085 |
Boston University - 4.4140% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 1.1867% | 0.1577% | 465 |
| 15 | 3.2272% | 0.5971% | 1761 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.0551% | 0.0583% | 172 |
| 15 | 3.6151% | 4.1365% | 12199 |
| 16 | 37.9978% | 20.8143% | 61384 |
| 17 | 53.0645% | 23.9180% | 70537 |
| 18 | 0.8535% | 0.3181% | 938 |
Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 16 | 2.7255% | 12.5000% | 36864 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 45 | 1.8176% | 6.2225% | 18351 |
| 46 | 0.9080% | 6.2775% | 18513 |
| 49 | 97.2745% | 37.5000% | 110592 |
Maine - 0.4124% Chance of being in the tournament
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.0470% | 0.0075% | 22 |
| 15 | 0.3655% | 0.0420% | 124 |
| Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
| 14 | 0.0003% | 0.0007% | 2 |
| 15 | 0.2414% | 0.1278% | 377 |
| 16 | 4.3130% | 2.6679% | 7868 |
| 17 | 20.2414% | 16.0353% | 47290 |
| 18 | 63.2324% | 22.8461% | 67376 |
| 19 | 11.0260% | 7.6931% | 22688 |
| 20 | 0.5330% | 0.5795% | 1709 |