Prediction if Miami wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Miami100.0000%4
Michigan100.0000%5
Denver100.0000%6
Union100.0000%8
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%9
Merrimack100.0000%9
Notre Dame99.9854%10
New Hampshire99.9834%11
Nebraska-Omaha91.4703%13
Colorado College85.5690%14
Rensselaer79.8650%15
Western Michigan61.9262%11
Dartmouth46.7860%14
RIT36.7267%16
Air Force33.5886%16
Holy Cross17.1314%16
Connecticut12.5532%16
Cornell11.0718%15
Bemidji State9.1842%15
Boston University5.5966%15
Northeastern5.2652%16
Colgate2.7255%16
Maine0.5714%15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.5707%26.6720%78659
24.8536%13.0266%38417
35.5737%10.2573%30250
40.0020%0.0441%130

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.3747%15.2150%44871
264.6523%21.9991%64878
328.9730%12.7858%37707

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
14.0545%8.1129%23926
230.4941%14.9743%44161
356.8291%20.4749%60383
48.6222%6.4379%18986

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
38.6223%6.4389%18989
449.2037%23.2486%68563
523.9874%12.5000%36864
615.5613%6.7708%19968
72.6254%1.0417%3072

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
30.0019%0.0431%127
428.0388%11.6757%34433
532.9553%17.1566%50597
618.1084%8.7341%25758
715.6255%6.7227%19826
85.2701%5.6678%16715

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
43.4553%2.3438%6912
530.4987%13.0981%38628
637.1136%16.4917%48636
723.4863%13.3494%39369
85.4460%4.7170%13911

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
62.9174%3.6499%10764
729.8532%17.4818%51556
866.4866%28.0877%82834
90.6952%0.7206%2125
100.0475%0.0600%177

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
70.0263%0.0248%73
88.4666%4.1806%12329
954.7084%25.2750%74539
1031.3554%16.6704%49163
115.4433%3.8493%11352

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
410.6780%6.2500%18432
511.9592%6.2849%18535
619.1412%9.0902%26808
718.8077%7.9536%23456
811.5922%4.3240%12752
923.1517%12.7828%37698
104.6701%3.3145%9775

Notre Dame - 99.9854% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.3525%0.3998%1179
921.2652%10.9945%32424
1047.5750%17.5798%51845
1118.1036%9.2601%27309
1211.4562%9.2255%27207
130.7115%1.3923%4106
140.4953%0.8077%2382
150.0261%0.0326%96
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0005%0.0288%85
140.0099%0.2519%743
150.0042%0.0271%80

New Hampshire - 99.9834% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.5995%0.9603%2832
67.1580%5.2633%15522
79.5757%3.4261%10104
82.3859%2.6232%7736
90.1795%0.2272%670
106.0867%5.7892%17073
1142.7335%16.3812%48310
1222.2539%9.0990%26834
137.0035%4.1426%12217
141.7905%1.7046%5027
150.2167%0.1977%583
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0010%0.0370%109
140.0144%0.1272%375
150.0012%0.0217%64

Nebraska-Omaha - 91.4703% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1218.4939%4.0951%12077
1338.8793%12.5810%37103
1419.1984%9.0658%26736
1514.8987%4.6210%13628
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0162%0.3008%887
140.7050%4.2725%12600
154.2373%10.6527%31416
163.5713%4.4111%13009

Colorado College - 85.5690% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.3115%0.2462%726
115.0691%4.2616%12568
1224.1278%10.2136%30121
1313.2291%6.7539%19918
1437.3352%8.4683%24974
155.4964%2.0220%5963
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0077%0.1709%504
140.7259%2.7469%8101
153.9174%7.6721%22626
169.7799%7.4446%21955

Rensselaer - 79.8650% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.2276%0.4951%1460
123.5935%4.6631%13752
1316.8232%12.7750%37675
1422.3419%12.5119%36899
1536.8789%4.4352%13080
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0305%0.6626%1954
140.6964%3.6102%10647
159.7031%8.3866%24733
169.3915%2.3848%7033
170.3135%0.0756%223

Western Michigan - 61.9262% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
109.8944%6.2910%18553
1118.8572%11.1298%32823
129.6571%6.0282%17778
1314.5924%7.6914%22683
142.9112%1.8283%5392
156.0140%1.0505%3098
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0106%0.3255%960
140.1038%0.6107%1801
151.4335%1.6395%4835
168.6999%3.0741%9066
1719.6029%6.4260%18951
188.0786%3.6404%10736
190.1445%0.2645%780

Dartmouth - 46.7860% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0594%0.0488%144
119.5657%4.6231%13634
1210.4176%6.6756%19687
138.6943%3.1013%9146
1411.8623%2.7988%8254
156.1867%0.9433%2782
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0004%0.0370%109
140.0507%0.8230%2427
152.9573%3.3783%9963
1628.7840%9.7975%28894
1711.4668%4.6526%13721
185.8573%5.3240%15701
193.3687%4.9652%14643
200.6231%2.5974%7660
210.0892%0.2035%600
220.0166%0.0309%91

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0515%0.7755%2287
152.8283%4.6882%13826
1633.8469%7.0363%20751
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0000%0.0003%1
200.0044%0.0119%35
219.5494%2.8598%8434
2213.4535%3.1911%9411
239.5427%3.3071%9753
243.4666%1.9175%5655
250.3663%0.6531%1926
260.4771%0.8087%2385
272.6788%1.1129%3282
2814.8114%7.2544%21394
2926.2861%14.8488%43791
3016.6848%10.8395%31967
312.6789%3.1949%9422

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0482%0.7812%2304
152.5876%4.6875%13824
1630.9529%7.0312%20736
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0018%0.0037%11
215.1125%1.8755%5531
2213.9512%3.0192%8904
232.0493%0.8464%2496
244.6835%2.0738%6116
255.3905%3.0958%9130
262.0523%1.3685%4036
272.6491%1.6608%4898
289.7817%4.8319%14250
2917.6577%7.8203%23063
3033.1382%15.5379%45823
313.5323%7.8661%23198

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.4669%3.1250%9216
1616.6645%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
371.3969%1.2956%3821
386.9451%4.2681%12587
398.7905%6.9468%20487
4021.6285%12.4169%36619
4161.2389%25.0726%73942

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3421%3.1250%9216
1612.2111%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4211.8927%12.2155%36025
430.6605%0.2845%839
4533.5269%19.8832%58638
4652.9998%15.3754%45344
470.9201%2.2413%6610

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.5830%3.1250%9216
1510.4888%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
207.1641%7.2062%21252
213.0726%4.2277%12468
220.8801%1.0834%3195
230.0800%0.0142%42
241.7838%0.5788%1707
255.0307%1.6605%4897
2614.4328%8.4873%25030
2726.7859%9.8229%28969
2817.5622%4.9221%14516
2912.6530%2.8256%8333
306.0618%4.5013%13275
313.6290%3.3596%9908
320.8594%1.3055%3850
330.0045%0.0047%14

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0667%1.5625%4608
141.6173%6.2500%18432
157.5002%4.6875%13824
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
181.7857%2.7507%8112
192.1147%2.7174%8014
205.2838%7.0319%20738
210.6106%0.2706%798
2218.5272%7.8400%23121
2314.0936%7.9424%23423
2418.1450%4.2531%12543
2510.8271%6.4365%18982
2623.2634%8.2679%24383
275.3304%2.4180%7131
280.0185%0.0715%211

Boston University - 5.5966% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.4635%0.2675%789
154.1331%0.7053%2080
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0324%0.0485%143
153.2936%3.9825%11745
1636.5177%20.7153%61092
1753.7052%23.9597%70660
180.8544%0.3211%947

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0438%1.5683%4625
151.6223%6.2493%18430
163.5992%4.6824%13809
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.0197%0.0963%284
230.0046%0.0522%154
240.5423%1.1105%3275
250.8781%1.7877%5272
261.0822%2.7178%8015
271.6198%3.8479%11348
281.0713%2.7096%7991
290.1878%0.5242%1546
304.1151%4.6807%13804
318.8273%7.4731%22039
323.3698%1.2044%3552
3337.3892%7.6162%22461
3440.8927%16.1794%47715

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7255%12.5000%36864
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
451.7621%6.1232%18058
460.9377%6.2764%18510
470.0258%0.1004%296
4997.2745%37.5000%110592

Maine - 0.5714% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2580%0.0471%139
150.3134%0.0549%162
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0051%0.0092%27
150.2886%0.1770%522
163.2556%2.1725%6407
1714.9113%14.8855%43899
1873.7731%27.8107%82017
196.9689%4.5695%13476
200.2260%0.2736%807