Prediction if Michigan wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

Team	Likelihood	Most Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale	100.0000%	1
North Dakota	100.0000%	2
Boston College	100.0000%	3
Michigan	100.0000%	4
Miami	100.0000%	6
Denver	100.0000%	6
Merrimack	100.0000%	7
Union	100.0000%	8
Minnesota-Duluth	100.0000%	10
Notre Dame	100.0000%	10
New Hampshire	99.9995%	11
Nebraska-Omaha	96.5519%	13
Colorado College	91.0203%	12
Rensselaer	71.1061%	15
Dartmouth	58.5912%	14
Western Michigan	43.5547%	13
RIT	36.7267%	16
Air Force	33.5886%	16
Holy Cross	17.1314%	16
Connecticut	12.5532%	16
Cornell	11.0718%	15
Boston University	10.0960%	15
Bemidji State	9.1842%	15
Northeastern	5.2652%	16
Colgate	2.7255%	16
Maine	0.8337%	15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	89.4346%	25.9118%	76417
2	4.9225%	11.8818%	35041
3	5.6355%	12.0511%	35540
4	0.0074%	0.1553%	458

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	6.3978%	15.3483%	45264
2	64.5176%	21.2938%	62798
3	29.0846%	13.3579%	39394

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	4.1676%	8.7399%	25775
2	30.5585%	16.7887%	49512
3	58.0476%	20.4732%	60378
4	7.2262%	3.9981%	11791

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
2	0.0014%	0.0356%	105
3	3.2070%	0.9009%	2657
4	49.9681%	24.8556%	73302
5	32.5290%	17.5595%	51785
6	10.3221%	5.0859%	14999
7	3.9723%	1.5625%	4608

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
3	4.0251%	3.2169%	9487
4	20.4622%	9.2831%	27377
5	25.4694%	12.9361%	38150
6	26.0491%	11.3963%	33609
7	12.6057%	4.1036%	12102
8	6.6998%	3.5950%	10602
9	4.3296%	4.8024%	14163
10	0.3589%	0.6666%	1966

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	5.3834%	2.3438%	6912
5	26.4153%	11.2101%	33060
6	35.6316%	16.8715%	49756
7	22.2087%	12.2626%	36164
8	9.3764%	6.5308%	19260
9	0.7739%	0.5358%	1580
10	0.2107%	0.2455%	724

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	16.9527%	9.3641%	27616
5	10.5878%	4.9533%	14608
6	12.3128%	5.6190%	16571
7	19.7702%	9.7358%	28712
8	16.6615%	5.9411%	17521
9	18.3700%	10.4543%	30831
10	5.3451%	3.9324%	11597

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.0455%	0.1682%	496
6	1.8002%	1.8460%	5444
7	23.9011%	13.9394%	41109
8	55.1311%	24.9607%	73612
9	17.8232%	8.6216%	25426
10	1.2990%	0.4642%	1369

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
7	0.0448%	0.0644%	190
8	4.7976%	2.6299%	7756
9	27.2725%	13.4735%	39735
10	55.1312%	25.8701%	76294
11	12.7539%	7.9620%	23481

Notre Dame - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	4.7985%	3.0209%	8909
6	9.2645%	5.1117%	15075
7	7.6835%	4.3810%	12920
8	4.2710%	3.5516%	10474
9	29.9060%	11.2976%	33318
10	33.8914%	14.2239%	41948
11	5.9407%	3.5075%	10344
12	4.1847%	4.5064%	13290
13	0.0598%	0.3994%	1178

New Hampshire - 99.9995% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.1544%	0.1519%	448
6	4.6198%	4.0697%	12002
7	9.8139%	3.9507%	11651
8	3.0626%	2.7910%	8231
9	1.5248%	0.8148%	2403
10	3.7636%	4.5973%	13558
11	58.6629%	24.5948%	72533
12	16.6343%	6.9458%	20484
13	1.5697%	1.6351%	4822
14	0.1842%	0.3930%	1159
15	0.0093%	0.0380%	112
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0000%	0.0034%	10
14	0.0002%	0.0092%	27
15	0.0002%	0.0054%	16

Nebraska-Omaha - 96.5519% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
12	25.1739%	5.1917%	15311
13	41.9185%	15.9465%	47028
14	18.0296%	10.2800%	30317
15	11.4299%	4.8672%	14354
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0222%	0.5208%	1536
14	0.6860%	4.6936%	13842
15	2.1878%	7.2388%	21348
16	0.5522%	1.2614%	3720

Colorado College - 91.0203% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	5.2872%	4.3003%	12682
12	36.8420%	17.0088%	50161
13	11.0130%	5.7794%	17044
14	32.7359%	8.2319%	24277
15	5.1422%	1.5944%	4702
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0136%	0.2377%	701
14	0.5223%	2.6082%	7692
15	2.1903%	5.0215%	14809
16	6.2535%	5.2178%	15388

Rensselaer - 71.1061% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	0.3645%	0.5802%	1711
12	2.7152%	3.7696%	11117
13	15.6617%	12.9557%	38208
14	19.7838%	11.2935%	33306
15	32.5808%	3.8730%	11422
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0260%	0.5978%	1763
14	0.8343%	3.4231%	10095
15	9.0803%	9.2339%	27232
16	17.0543%	4.0090%	11823
17	1.8990%	0.2641%	779

Dartmouth - 58.5912% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	9.8032%	4.7577%	14031
12	10.8245%	8.4290%	24858
13	13.5992%	3.7632%	11098
14	17.8789%	3.8222%	11272
15	6.4854%	0.8392%	2475
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0002%	0.0075%	22
14	0.0534%	0.9908%	2922
15	4.2293%	3.7092%	10939
16	15.9739%	6.3416%	18702
17	11.8197%	5.0388%	14860
18	5.2987%	4.2311%	12478
19	3.2079%	4.9537%	14609
20	0.6621%	2.7317%	8056
21	0.1349%	0.3201%	944
22	0.0287%	0.0644%	190

Western Michigan - 43.5547% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	7.1876%	4.2976%	12674
12	3.6253%	4.1487%	12235
13	16.1115%	7.9583%	23470
14	6.1922%	2.7435%	8091
15	10.4380%	1.3536%	3992
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0046%	0.1953%	576
14	0.1471%	0.5815%	1715
15	1.8792%	2.3200%	6842
16	9.4447%	5.6881%	16775
17	29.9752%	12.8740%	37967
18	14.7548%	7.3069%	21549
19	0.2398%	0.5324%	1570

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0513%	0.7731%	2280
15	2.8257%	4.6844%	13815
16	33.8497%	7.0424%	20769
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	0.0014%	0.0058%	17
21	8.0561%	2.4221%	7143
22	13.5049%	3.1013%	9146
23	10.6842%	3.5085%	10347
24	3.7989%	2.2000%	6488
25	0.3126%	0.6283%	1853
26	0.4653%	0.8325%	2455
27	2.6783%	1.0590%	3123
28	15.0224%	7.2805%	21471
29	26.1278%	14.8722%	43860
30	16.6822%	10.9066%	32165
31	2.6658%	3.1833%	9388

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0482%	0.7812%	2304
15	2.5876%	4.6875%	13824
16	30.9529%	7.0312%	20736
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	0.0011%	0.0027%	8
21	2.3218%	1.2394%	3655
22	17.1994%	3.6289%	10702
23	2.5401%	0.9942%	2932
24	3.9360%	1.9494%	5749
25	5.5221%	3.2464%	9574
26	1.7046%	1.2956%	3821
27	2.6214%	1.5903%	4690
28	9.7895%	4.8031%	14165
29	17.6625%	7.7457%	22843
30	32.8436%	15.1459%	44667
31	3.8578%	8.3584%	24650

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.4669%	3.1250%	9216
16	16.6645%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
37	1.3394%	1.0871%	3206
38	7.2356%	4.5471%	13410
39	8.5850%	6.9756%	20572
40	21.6521%	12.3410%	36395
41	61.1878%	25.0492%	73873

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.3421%	3.1250%	9216
16	12.2111%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
42	12.2852%	12.3935%	36550
43	0.2680%	0.1065%	314
45	32.9996%	19.5095%	57536
46	53.5129%	15.6135%	46046
47	0.9343%	2.3770%	7010

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.5830%	3.1250%	9216
15	10.4888%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	6.3427%	5.9987%	17691
21	3.5749%	4.6207%	13627
22	1.1592%	1.8795%	5543
23	0.0173%	0.0054%	16
24	1.2755%	0.3883%	1145
25	4.5035%	1.4299%	4217
26	14.8435%	8.3849%	24728
27	25.5995%	9.9555%	29360
28	18.5559%	5.1063%	15059
29	13.0765%	2.9724%	8766
30	6.2946%	4.3342%	12782
31	3.6373%	3.3739%	9950
32	1.0890%	1.5055%	4440
33	0.0307%	0.0448%	132

Boston University - 10.0960% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	2.4783%	0.6544%	1930
15	7.6177%	1.4106%	4160
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0943%	0.1797%	530
15	5.8974%	8.1424%	24013
16	46.7581%	23.9061%	70502
17	36.8958%	15.5629%	45897
18	0.2584%	0.1438%	424

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0667%	1.5625%	4608
14	1.6173%	6.2500%	18432
15	7.5002%	4.6875%	13824
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
18	2.4001%	3.8520%	11360
19	2.2127%	2.8154%	8303
20	4.5896%	5.8577%	17275
21	1.8741%	1.0264%	3027
22	20.8040%	8.3934%	24753
23	14.9747%	8.5114%	25101
24	18.1328%	4.3165%	12730
25	10.4898%	6.0418%	17818
26	20.3623%	7.2364%	21341
27	4.1461%	1.8884%	5569
28	0.0136%	0.0607%	179

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0440%	1.5706%	4632
15	1.6249%	6.2531%	18441
16	3.5964%	4.6763%	13791
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
22	0.0921%	0.2163%	638
23	0.0179%	0.0966%	285
24	0.5504%	1.1780%	3474
25	1.0248%	2.1671%	6391
26	1.1610%	2.8622%	8441
27	1.4438%	3.4271%	10107
28	0.9281%	2.3787%	7015
29	0.2172%	0.6134%	1809
30	4.4161%	5.1137%	15081
31	8.4968%	6.9468%	20487
32	2.8983%	1.1990%	3536
33	42.3125%	8.6005%	25364
34	36.4410%	15.2005%	44828

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
16	2.7255%	12.5000%	36864
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
45	1.7508%	6.0713%	17905
46	0.9447%	6.2961%	18568
47	0.0300%	0.1326%	391
49	97.2745%	37.5000%	110592

Maine - 0.8337% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.3732%	0.0814%	240
15	0.4605%	0.0865%	255
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0062%	0.0139%	41
15	0.3719%	0.2662%	785
16	3.9632%	3.5760%	10546
17	19.4102%	16.2598%	47952
18	67.2985%	24.4242%	72030
19	7.7102%	4.8333%	14254
20	0.4060%	0.4588%	1353