Prediction if New Hampshire wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

Team	Likelihood	Most Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale	100.0000%	1
North Dakota	100.0000%	2
Boston College	100.0000%	3
Michigan	100.0000%	4
Miami	100.0000%	4
Denver	100.0000%	6
Union	100.0000%	7
Merrimack	100.0000%	9
Minnesota-Duluth	100.0000%	10
New Hampshire	99.9995%	11
Notre Dame	99.9921%	10
Nebraska-Omaha	91.1514%	13
Colorado College	89.6653%	14
Western Michigan	64.7090%	12
Rensselaer	64.1445%	15
Dartmouth	52.0674%	12
RIT	36.7267%	16
Air Force	33.5886%	16
Holy Cross	17.1314%	16
Connecticut	12.5532%	16
Cornell	11.0718%	15
Bemidji State	9.1842%	15
Boston University	8.9721%	15
Northeastern	5.4190%	16
Colgate	2.7255%	16
Maine	0.8982%	15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	89.3962%	25.6653%	75690
2	4.0412%	8.3700%	24684
3	6.5546%	15.8312%	46688
4	0.0080%	0.1336%	394

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	7.5705%	19.6472%	57942
2	64.1136%	21.0171%	61982
3	28.3159%	9.3357%	27532

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	3.0333%	4.6875%	13824
2	31.8434%	20.5773%	60685
3	56.4419%	20.6801%	60988
4	8.6815%	4.0551%	11959

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
2	0.0019%	0.0356%	105
3	4.2303%	0.8782%	2590
4	45.2673%	22.0418%	65004
5	25.9131%	13.3399%	39341
6	14.9226%	5.4599%	16102
7	5.1539%	3.4231%	10095
8	3.0085%	3.3847%	9982
9	0.9510%	0.8542%	2519
10	0.5514%	0.5825%	1718

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
3	4.4573%	3.2749%	9658
4	28.8985%	15.4419%	45540
5	27.4285%	13.3386%	39337
6	20.6196%	7.4178%	21876
7	9.0470%	3.1715%	9353
8	6.2820%	4.0192%	11853
9	2.4043%	2.3651%	6975
10	0.8628%	0.9711%	2864

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	14.0062%	6.9946%	20628
5	33.8301%	14.8142%	43689
6	34.9300%	15.4951%	45697
7	5.6962%	4.1802%	12328
8	9.6234%	7.3303%	21618
9	1.4680%	0.7846%	2314
10	0.4461%	0.4008%	1182

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.0601%	0.1682%	496
6	8.3344%	8.9918%	26518
7	43.9036%	22.0191%	64937
8	31.1682%	12.3796%	36509
9	14.0534%	5.6691%	16719
10	2.4804%	0.7721%	2277

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
6	0.0863%	0.1529%	451
7	15.6896%	8.4446%	24904
8	33.3382%	12.3349%	36377
9	40.2125%	22.3317%	65859
10	10.6735%	6.7359%	19865

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
7	0.0591%	0.0644%	190
8	9.1169%	4.1731%	12307
9	18.0553%	7.8854%	23255
10	46.9424%	21.5817%	63647
11	25.8262%	16.2954%	48057

New Hampshire - 99.9995% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	0.0101%	0.0027%	8
5	2.2056%	2.3044%	6796
6	12.4365%	8.2306%	24273
7	17.0804%	7.1109%	20971
8	6.1158%	5.2317%	15429
9	2.2409%	1.0773%	3177
10	6.2294%	4.0324%	11892
11	44.8589%	16.0227%	47253
12	6.5536%	4.5600%	13448
13	1.8546%	1.0281%	3032
14	0.3867%	0.3340%	985
15	0.0271%	0.0488%	144
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0005%	0.0163%	48

Notre Dame - 99.9921% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	3.1285%	1.3302%	3923
5	10.5626%	6.0347%	17797
6	8.6706%	4.2518%	12539
7	3.3703%	1.5862%	4678
8	1.3470%	1.1464%	3381
9	20.6146%	9.0325%	26638
10	28.6856%	12.9479%	38185
11	12.4767%	5.6583%	16687
12	10.0582%	6.4277%	18956
13	0.6449%	0.9169%	2704
14	0.4106%	0.4829%	1424
15	0.0224%	0.0217%	64
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0003%	0.0163%	48
14	0.0053%	0.1302%	384
15	0.0023%	0.0163%	48

Nebraska-Omaha - 91.1514% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
12	16.0241%	2.9527%	8708
13	41.2551%	14.2046%	41891
14	21.1214%	9.6686%	28514
15	12.7507%	4.0849%	12047
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0221%	0.4727%	1394
14	0.6360%	3.5797%	10557
15	4.1918%	10.0857%	29744
16	3.9987%	4.9510%	14601

Colorado College - 89.6653% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.0077%	0.0054%	16
11	1.1264%	1.4570%	4297
12	27.9138%	12.3898%	36539
13	15.7479%	9.0346%	26644
14	37.2223%	9.5123%	28053
15	7.6473%	2.4390%	7193
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0126%	0.2469%	728
14	0.7468%	3.3040%	9744
15	3.0693%	6.0523%	17849
16	6.5060%	5.5586%	16393

Western Michigan - 64.7090% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	3.1175%	1.9647%	5794
11	13.0861%	8.5520%	25221
12	19.4090%	12.2413%	36101
13	17.3191%	9.3302%	27516
14	4.4843%	2.1895%	6457
15	7.2930%	0.7531%	2221
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0056%	0.1628%	480
14	0.1182%	0.3852%	1136
15	1.2889%	1.3584%	4006
16	5.6646%	2.9714%	8763
17	22.3588%	7.3988%	21820
18	5.7863%	2.5235%	7442
19	0.0685%	0.1692%	499

Rensselaer - 64.1445% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	0.2018%	0.1916%	565
12	2.7652%	2.2780%	6718
13	13.6419%	9.7036%	28617
14	19.6755%	11.8028%	34808
15	27.8601%	4.4047%	12990
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0269%	0.5812%	1714
14	0.7151%	3.8917%	11477
15	9.8796%	10.6961%	31544
16	22.6067%	6.0981%	17984
17	2.6273%	0.3523%	1039

Dartmouth - 52.0674% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.0032%	0.0054%	16
11	2.4240%	1.8229%	5376
12	17.2761%	9.1505%	26986
13	9.4679%	4.2196%	12444
14	11.8957%	2.9392%	8668
15	11.0005%	1.3187%	3889
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0007%	0.0665%	196
14	0.0811%	1.0746%	3169
15	3.1420%	3.3322%	9827
16	24.4878%	8.5202%	25127
17	12.5935%	4.7587%	14034
18	4.5522%	5.6013%	16519
19	2.4461%	4.2921%	12658
20	0.5594%	2.6544%	7828
21	0.0587%	0.2123%	626
22	0.0111%	0.0315%	93

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0515%	0.7657%	2258
15	2.8696%	4.6770%	13793
16	33.8056%	7.0574%	20813
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
21	11.1687%	3.1582%	9314
22	12.2002%	3.0891%	9110
23	9.2538%	3.2033%	9447
24	3.4156%	1.8565%	5475
25	0.3430%	0.6432%	1897
26	0.4110%	0.7036%	2075
27	2.5828%	1.0322%	3044
28	12.9521%	6.5691%	19373
29	26.0836%	14.6434%	43185
30	18.8549%	11.7954%	34786
31	2.7342%	3.3061%	9750

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0496%	0.7812%	2304
15	2.6364%	4.6875%	13824
16	30.9026%	7.0312%	20736
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	0.0000%	0.0003%	1
21	5.2432%	1.9874%	5861
22	13.1661%	2.8127%	8295
23	2.1390%	0.8735%	2576
24	5.4859%	2.2630%	6674
25	5.3312%	3.0355%	8952
26	1.6506%	1.1898%	3509
27	2.6135%	1.5269%	4503
28	10.0046%	5.0144%	14788
29	17.5987%	7.7203%	22768
30	32.3120%	14.7441%	43482
31	4.4552%	8.8321%	26047

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.4669%	3.1250%	9216
16	16.6645%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
37	1.3161%	1.3587%	4007
38	6.5482%	3.6536%	10775
39	9.2788%	7.5307%	22209
40	21.6026%	12.3800%	36510
41	61.2543%	25.0770%	73955

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.3421%	3.1250%	9216
16	12.2111%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
42	11.4148%	12.0188%	35445
43	1.1384%	0.4812%	1419
45	20.9676%	14.5613%	42943
46	64.8970%	19.1562%	56494
47	1.5822%	3.7825%	11155

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.6000%	3.1250%	9216
15	10.4718%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	7.6468%	7.6667%	22610
21	2.7995%	3.9663%	11697
22	0.8323%	0.9220%	2719
23	0.3054%	0.0312%	92
24	2.8500%	0.8769%	2586
25	6.7897%	1.9548%	5765
26	13.7503%	7.4351%	21927
27	21.6063%	9.3730%	27642
28	22.2047%	5.8594%	17280
29	11.7664%	2.8080%	8281
30	5.3356%	4.8164%	14204
31	3.3309%	3.1440%	9272
32	0.7712%	1.1302%	3333
33	0.0109%	0.0163%	48

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0687%	1.5625%	4608
14	1.6275%	6.2500%	18432
15	7.4880%	4.6875%	13824
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
18	3.7661%	3.9212%	11564
19	2.4210%	2.4590%	7252
20	3.0036%	6.1313%	18082
21	1.7043%	0.7826%	2308
22	17.8697%	7.4880%	22083
23	14.1004%	7.8657%	23197
24	18.1665%	4.2277%	12468
25	10.0457%	6.2100%	18314
26	22.3999%	8.3201%	24537
27	6.5093%	2.5723%	7586
28	0.0136%	0.0220%	65

Boston University - 8.9721% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	1.9865%	0.4968%	1465
15	6.9856%	0.8972%	2646
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0648%	0.1214%	358
15	4.0640%	4.1857%	12344
16	34.6661%	20.3166%	59916
17	51.5681%	23.7400%	70012
18	0.6649%	0.2424%	715

Northeastern - 5.4190% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0466%	1.5781%	4654
15	1.6817%	6.2605%	18463
16	3.6907%	4.6614%	13747
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
22	0.1858%	0.4513%	1331
23	0.0104%	0.1010%	298
24	0.7645%	1.5957%	4706
25	1.1170%	2.2407%	6608
26	1.1190%	2.8998%	8552
27	1.2784%	2.9070%	8573
28	0.8808%	2.1064%	6212
29	0.2712%	0.7145%	2107
30	4.8815%	5.4576%	16095
31	7.8398%	6.5260%	19246
32	2.7392%	1.2190%	3595
33	48.3434%	9.2862%	27386
34	30.5691%	14.4948%	42747

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
16	2.7255%	12.5000%	36864
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
45	1.7207%	6.0605%	17873
46	0.9606%	6.2805%	18522
47	0.0442%	0.1590%	469
49	97.2745%	37.5000%	110592

Maine - 0.8982% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.4417%	0.0739%	218
15	0.4565%	0.0943%	278
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0078%	0.0132%	39
15	0.3187%	0.2109%	622
16	2.0702%	1.5842%	4672
17	10.8523%	13.7502%	40551
18	80.4059%	31.6386%	93306
19	5.3084%	2.5370%	7482
20	0.1385%	0.0977%	288