Prediction if North Dakota wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

Team	Likelihood	Most Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale	100.0000%	1
North Dakota	100.0000%	2
Boston College	100.0000%	3
Michigan	100.0000%	4
Miami	100.0000%	4
Denver	100.0000%	6
Union	100.0000%	8
Merrimack	100.0000%	9
Minnesota-Duluth	100.0000%	10
Notre Dame	99.9998%	10
New Hampshire	99.9934%	11
Nebraska-Omaha	94.4491%	13
Colorado College	87.9946%	14
Western Michigan	69.2690%	11
Rensselaer	60.9951%	15
Dartmouth	52.9567%	12
RIT	36.7267%	16
Air Force	33.5886%	16
Holy Cross	17.1314%	16
Connecticut	12.5532%	16
Cornell	11.0718%	15
Bemidji State	7.3973%	15
Boston University	7.0213%	15
Northeastern	5.2652%	16
Colgate	2.7255%	16
Maine	0.8611%	15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	89.3922%	25.6114%	75531
2	3.3722%	8.8589%	26126
3	7.2300%	15.4249%	45490
4	0.0057%	0.1048%	309

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	7.9319%	18.5527%	54714
2	73.3715%	22.5196%	66413
3	18.6966%	8.9277%	26329

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	2.6759%	5.8360%	17211
2	23.2552%	18.5974%	54846
3	67.6008%	22.0042%	64893
4	6.4681%	3.5624%	10506

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
2	0.0011%	0.0241%	71
3	2.0335%	0.4703%	1387
4	37.0491%	16.7213%	49313
5	29.8549%	15.1571%	44700
6	14.3533%	6.6728%	19679
7	10.5460%	4.7007%	13863
8	4.2758%	4.6533%	13723
9	1.6208%	1.3455%	3968
10	0.2655%	0.2550%	752

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
3	4.4391%	3.1728%	9357
4	27.4632%	13.7943%	40681
5	22.3467%	11.3536%	33483
6	20.1266%	8.8389%	26067
7	11.3270%	3.7465%	11049
8	8.1253%	3.9205%	11562
9	5.7059%	4.6380%	13678
10	0.4662%	0.5354%	1579

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	9.3818%	5.0971%	15032
5	27.1139%	12.2704%	36187
6	31.4654%	14.0377%	41399
7	22.3194%	12.2643%	36169
8	8.7379%	5.6654%	16708
9	0.8332%	0.5324%	1570
10	0.1484%	0.1326%	391

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.0231%	0.0797%	235
6	3.9951%	4.4691%	13180
7	26.4232%	16.2584%	47948
8	52.0225%	21.9103%	64616
9	16.2663%	6.8715%	20265
10	1.2697%	0.4110%	1212

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	16.3864%	9.3672%	27625
5	11.7807%	5.3162%	15678
6	15.0082%	7.1021%	20945
7	15.8422%	6.6620%	19647
8	15.7091%	6.2246%	18357
9	19.6687%	11.2522%	33184
10	5.6047%	4.0758%	12020

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
7	0.0339%	0.0434%	128
8	5.0873%	2.6262%	7745
9	28.2814%	12.8465%	37886
10	54.2028%	26.3645%	77752
11	12.3946%	8.1194%	23945

Notre Dame - 99.9998% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	3.2390%	1.3502%	3982
5	7.7055%	4.5210%	13333
6	8.9665%	4.5074%	13293
7	5.2599%	2.7334%	8061
8	3.3714%	2.7208%	8024
9	26.4997%	11.9982%	35384
10	29.0260%	11.6577%	34380
11	9.5224%	4.9137%	14491
12	6.1645%	5.0846%	14995
13	0.2450%	0.4988%	1471
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0002%	0.0142%	42

New Hampshire - 99.9934% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	0.0068%	0.0027%	8
5	1.1752%	1.3021%	3840
6	6.0848%	4.3718%	12893
7	8.2484%	3.5912%	10591
8	2.6708%	2.2790%	6721
9	1.1240%	0.5157%	1521
10	3.7262%	3.3132%	9771
11	47.0173%	18.8911%	55712
12	23.4236%	11.1491%	32880
13	6.2225%	3.9927%	11775
14	0.2939%	0.4981%	1469
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0005%	0.0224%	66
14	0.0061%	0.0709%	209

Nebraska-Omaha - 94.4491% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
12	23.2434%	5.0544%	14906
13	45.9519%	18.9629%	55924
14	18.1794%	9.3726%	27641
15	7.0745%	2.8005%	8259
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0192%	0.5076%	1497
14	0.4514%	3.5851%	10573
15	2.6429%	7.1676%	21138
16	2.4374%	2.5492%	7518

Colorado College - 87.9946% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
12	18.2118%	4.7343%	13962
13	14.6561%	7.2398%	21351
14	46.9239%	13.5505%	39962
15	8.2027%	3.4071%	10048
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0125%	0.2665%	786
14	0.7444%	3.8276%	11288
15	3.0469%	8.0051%	23608
16	8.2016%	8.9691%	26451

Western Michigan - 69.2690% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	5.2905%	3.2549%	9599
11	22.0414%	13.7136%	40443
12	14.4119%	11.0504%	32589
13	15.4887%	6.6216%	19528
14	4.4300%	1.7619%	5196
15	7.6067%	0.7412%	2186
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0044%	0.1628%	480
14	0.1294%	0.4686%	1382
15	1.1077%	1.6090%	4745
16	5.3008%	1.6863%	4973
17	14.3798%	4.3155%	12727
18	9.6852%	4.3372%	12791
19	0.1237%	0.2770%	817

Rensselaer - 60.9951% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	0.1539%	0.2872%	847
12	2.6821%	3.6852%	10868
13	7.0433%	7.8471%	23142
14	14.6694%	9.0610%	26722
15	36.4464%	4.9618%	14633
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0163%	0.5188%	1530
14	0.5814%	3.4163%	10075
15	11.7171%	12.5095%	36892
16	24.9209%	7.3639%	21717
17	1.7692%	0.3493%	1030

Dartmouth - 52.9567% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	8.8705%	4.0751%	12018
12	11.8628%	9.2421%	27256
13	10.3388%	3.2745%	9657
14	11.3370%	2.7507%	8112
15	10.5476%	1.2868%	3795
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0007%	0.0702%	207
14	0.0535%	1.0084%	2974
15	2.4003%	2.8754%	8480
16	22.7490%	7.3124%	21565
17	11.3266%	4.7065%	13880
18	6.4262%	5.7732%	17026
19	3.4588%	4.8676%	14355
20	0.5250%	2.5482%	7515
21	0.0871%	0.1855%	547
22	0.0161%	0.0234%	69

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0513%	0.7718%	2276
15	2.8185%	4.6750%	13787
16	33.8570%	7.0533%	20801
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
19	0.0005%	0.0020%	6
20	0.0109%	0.0417%	123
21	10.2327%	2.8127%	8295
22	12.9738%	3.2444%	9568
23	9.5055%	3.4068%	10047
24	3.3594%	1.7965%	5298
25	0.3101%	0.6846%	2019
26	0.4316%	0.7178%	2117
27	2.7375%	1.1051%	3259
28	15.3534%	7.5185%	22173
29	26.0250%	14.9167%	43991
30	16.4165%	10.6822%	31503
31	2.6430%	3.0711%	9057

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0482%	0.7812%	2304
15	2.5876%	4.6875%	13824
16	30.9529%	7.0312%	20736
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	0.0055%	0.0149%	44
21	5.2181%	1.6927%	4992
22	14.1922%	3.1260%	9219
23	2.2442%	0.7409%	2185
24	4.8662%	2.2207%	6549
25	4.9441%	3.0297%	8935
26	1.7064%	1.3950%	4114
27	2.6394%	1.7409%	5134
28	9.7483%	4.7668%	14058
29	17.7232%	7.7030%	22717
30	32.7979%	14.9214%	44005
31	3.9144%	8.6480%	25504

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.4669%	3.1250%	9216
16	16.6645%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
37	1.9163%	1.5181%	4477
38	6.6639%	3.7343%	11013
39	8.5850%	7.3700%	21735
40	21.6962%	12.3569%	36442
41	61.1386%	25.0207%	73789

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.3421%	3.1250%	9216
16	12.2111%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
42	12.0814%	12.3040%	36286
43	0.4718%	0.1960%	578
45	34.5384%	19.9117%	58722
46	52.0279%	15.3843%	45370
47	0.8804%	2.2040%	6500

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.5830%	3.1250%	9216
15	10.4888%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	7.6873%	7.6860%	22667
21	2.8207%	4.0209%	11858
22	0.6840%	0.8341%	2460
23	0.2096%	0.0281%	83
24	2.0937%	0.6700%	1976
25	5.0998%	1.5757%	4647
26	13.9245%	8.4490%	24917
27	25.4871%	9.6629%	28497
28	17.5796%	4.8252%	14230
29	13.3012%	2.9697%	8758
30	6.0204%	3.9839%	11749
31	4.0180%	3.4115%	10061
32	1.0556%	1.8572%	5477
33	0.0186%	0.0258%	76

Bemidji State - 7.3973% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0537%	1.5625%	4608
14	1.3026%	6.2500%	18432
15	6.0410%	4.6875%	13824
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
17	0.0001%	0.0007%	2
18	1.4198%	2.7598%	8139
19	1.6945%	2.6937%	7944
20	4.2993%	7.0733%	20860
21	2.1448%	1.2312%	3631
22	18.8164%	7.2466%	21371
23	14.4857%	7.8213%	23066
24	18.2308%	4.3199%	12740
25	10.6828%	6.5494%	19315
26	22.8460%	7.8993%	23296
27	5.3688%	2.3353%	6887
28	0.0110%	0.0695%	205

Boston University - 7.0213% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	1.8102%	0.4296%	1267
15	5.2111%	0.7402%	2183
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0582%	0.1122%	331
15	3.1046%	3.4780%	10257
16	32.4483%	19.4061%	57231
17	56.3457%	25.3191%	74669
18	1.0218%	0.5147%	1518

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0440%	1.5720%	4636
15	1.6321%	6.2625%	18469
16	3.5891%	4.6655%	13759
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
22	0.1624%	0.4693%	1384
23	0.0280%	0.1526%	450
24	0.6492%	1.4862%	4383
25	0.9954%	2.0935%	6174
26	1.0770%	2.5899%	7638
27	1.3923%	3.3522%	9886
28	0.9264%	2.2424%	6613
29	0.2108%	0.6056%	1786
30	4.4675%	5.3602%	15808
31	8.4393%	6.6481%	19606
32	3.9976%	1.7917%	5284
33	37.3077%	8.1753%	24110
34	40.3465%	15.0330%	44334

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
16	2.7255%	12.5000%	36864
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
45	1.7619%	6.0798%	17930
46	0.9388%	6.2981%	18574
47	0.0248%	0.1221%	360
49	97.2745%	37.5000%	110592

Maine - 0.8611% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.3271%	0.0756%	223
15	0.5340%	0.1248%	368
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0047%	0.0109%	32
15	0.3574%	0.2930%	864
16	3.9419%	2.7130%	8001
17	16.1768%	15.3046%	45135
18	75.9969%	28.9354%	85334
19	2.4945%	2.2834%	6734
20	0.1667%	0.2594%	765