Prediction if Northeastern wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Miami100.0000%3
Merrimack100.0000%4
Michigan100.0000%5
Denver100.0000%6
Union100.0000%8
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%10
New Hampshire99.9839%11
Notre Dame99.9590%10
Colorado College84.3111%14
Nebraska-Omaha83.7521%13
Rensselaer64.3891%14
Western Michigan61.8839%12
Dartmouth44.7715%12
RIT36.7267%16
Air Force33.5886%16
Northeastern28.6959%16
Holy Cross17.1314%16
Connecticut12.5532%16
Cornell11.0718%15
Bemidji State9.1842%15
Boston University5.7523%15
Maine3.5195%15
Colgate2.7255%16

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.2142%27.0315%79719
23.7558%8.2733%24399
36.0293%14.6790%43290
40.0007%0.0163%48

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
18.2769%19.6167%57852
290.2144%27.0382%79739
31.5087%3.3451%9865

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
11.5089%3.3518%9885
26.0298%14.6884%43318
368.2274%25.5219%75267
424.2339%6.4379%18986

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
324.2339%6.4379%18986
46.6698%10.6272%31341
519.5189%11.6597%34386
623.5070%9.0468%26680
712.2452%3.3325%9828
86.3203%3.2606%9616
95.9007%4.7360%13967
101.6042%0.8993%2652

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
427.3278%9.3713%27637
511.1505%4.6912%13835
67.7358%7.3547%21690
712.0372%8.7345%25759
89.2980%5.6485%16658
924.0792%10.8551%32013
108.3716%3.3447%9864

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
30.0007%0.0163%48
430.9250%17.1750%50651
534.8964%15.4911%45685
618.0505%6.5982%19459
79.2213%4.4488%13120
84.7580%4.5753%13493
91.5913%1.3665%4030
100.5570%0.3289%970

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
48.6862%5.2114%15369
526.0412%13.0222%38404
630.6660%14.8261%43724
723.1002%11.5631%34101
810.2833%4.9344%14552
91.0735%0.3354%989
100.1496%0.1075%317

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
64.5471%4.7597%14037
728.5170%16.2374%47886
850.4352%21.9265%64664
915.6747%6.9885%20610
100.8260%0.0878%259

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
70.0273%0.0468%138
82.8879%2.4133%7117
928.5670%13.0090%38365
1047.5655%26.4231%77925
1120.9524%8.1078%23911

New Hampshire - 99.9839% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.7755%0.8345%2461
66.8843%3.1230%9210
79.3961%2.7568%8130
811.7432%4.2925%12659
92.1124%0.6226%1836
108.4771%5.2324%15431
1150.7979%23.5318%69398
127.6084%7.2116%21268
131.9079%1.7385%5127
140.2703%0.4876%1438
150.0107%0.0271%80
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0030%0.0420%124
140.0090%0.0726%214
150.0042%0.0271%80

Notre Dame - 99.9590% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
42.1567%1.1610%3424
57.6175%4.3013%12685
68.6094%4.2914%12656
75.4558%2.8802%8494
84.2740%2.9490%8697
921.0012%12.0870%35646
1028.9211%10.5913%31235
1111.1233%4.3955%12963
129.7074%5.6183%16569
130.6457%0.8915%2629
140.4309%0.5093%1502
150.0160%0.0163%48
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0013%0.0288%85
140.0279%0.2519%743
150.0118%0.0271%80

Colorado College - 84.3111% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0076%0.0129%38
111.1293%1.5869%4680
1227.9765%12.1250%35758
1315.1851%8.2442%24313
1434.6974%7.4934%22099
155.3153%1.5235%4493
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0697%0.5001%1475
142.2959%4.4824%13219
155.9176%7.4212%21886
167.4056%6.6104%19495

Nebraska-Omaha - 83.7521% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1215.2952%2.7134%8002
1339.3002%11.9327%35191
1419.1711%7.1465%21076
159.9856%2.9426%8678
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.1183%0.9457%2789
142.2271%5.7068%16830
159.7907%13.6047%40122
164.1118%5.0076%14768

Rensselaer - 64.3891% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.2278%0.3411%1006
123.3807%3.2630%9623
1316.8295%11.7086%34530
1422.8762%11.4271%33700
1521.0749%2.9222%8618
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.1377%1.1488%3388
142.0579%6.1791%18223
1514.4510%9.4930%27996
1616.0706%3.2728%9652
172.8936%0.2441%720

Western Michigan - 61.8839% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
103.5173%2.9612%8733
1113.3749%9.9474%29336
1218.7335%10.2478%30222
1316.8364%8.5066%25087
144.0366%1.7700%5220
155.3853%0.5202%1534
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0297%0.3255%960
140.3147%0.6439%1899
152.6992%1.7025%5021
166.2347%2.7367%8071
1710.1162%5.2721%15548
1817.8932%4.8336%14255
190.8283%0.5324%1570

Dartmouth - 44.7715% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0031%0.0109%32
112.3945%2.0894%6162
1217.2982%8.8209%26014
138.9315%3.8530%11363
149.0932%2.1450%6326
157.0510%0.7711%2274
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0040%0.1339%395
140.1467%1.3526%3989
154.0579%3.4529%10183
1616.4311%7.6633%22600
1710.4654%2.3973%7070
1820.2701%9.3330%27524
193.1117%5.0296%14833
200.6232%2.6622%7851
210.1010%0.2475%730
220.0175%0.0373%110

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2800%1.5469%4562
1510.9160%6.2330%18382
1625.5307%4.7201%13920
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0008%0.0014%4
200.0085%0.0183%54
219.1262%2.8951%8538
225.6986%2.1874%6451
238.4321%3.0368%8956
2410.9434%2.4058%7095
250.6897%0.9043%2667
262.2938%1.4245%4201
271.7778%0.6165%1818
288.4436%4.8296%14243
2918.5582%12.1009%35687
3019.5475%13.3202%39283
3114.4798%6.2592%18459

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2627%1.5625%4608
1510.0286%6.2500%18432
1623.2973%4.6875%13824
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0081%0.0088%26
215.7867%2.2308%6579
2213.3776%2.8103%8288
232.4035%0.9810%2893
245.3875%2.2803%6725
255.6638%3.1291%9228
260.9841%1.0674%3148
273.0988%1.2845%3788
286.5943%3.5868%10578
2915.1045%6.6115%19498
3021.7943%10.0416%29614
3119.7968%15.9678%47091

Northeastern - 28.6959% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2394%3.1406%9262
158.8857%12.5170%36914
1619.5709%9.3424%27552
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.7955%0.7029%2073
230.1401%0.2411%711
243.3853%2.6540%7827
255.1971%3.9473%11641
265.9272%5.3304%15720
277.6847%6.5782%19400
285.2582%5.1015%15045
291.1360%1.1892%3507
3022.9282%9.5740%28235
3147.5477%14.6813%43297

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.4669%3.1250%9216
1616.6645%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
375.5882%3.1464%9279
387.3093%4.8642%14345
394.3509%4.6963%13850
4021.6550%12.2932%36254
4161.0966%25.0000%73728

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3421%3.1250%9216
1612.2111%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4212.1220%12.3355%36379
430.4312%0.1645%485
4537.6298%21.2711%62731
4649.1512%14.8105%43678
470.6657%1.4184%4183

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
143.1772%6.2500%18432
157.8946%6.2500%18432
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
207.8539%7.5643%22308
212.6286%4.0480%11938
220.6829%0.9074%2676
230.2335%0.0183%54
242.0598%0.5897%1739
256.5602%1.9928%5877
2617.8821%8.2770%24410
2723.9663%8.1716%24099
2812.8389%5.2880%15595
2911.5593%3.2108%9469
305.9404%2.8937%8534
313.7595%4.1155%12137
323.9097%2.8670%8455
330.1249%0.0559%165

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.3636%3.1250%9216
143.1754%6.2500%18432
155.6451%3.1250%9216
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
182.0056%3.3379%9844
194.0461%2.8470%8396
203.1427%6.3317%18673
212.0059%0.8891%2622
2216.3628%7.0170%20694
2323.1093%9.0919%26813
246.3325%1.6439%4848
2522.9352%8.3181%24531
2616.1050%7.5470%22257
273.8237%2.7998%8257
280.1312%0.1767%521

Boston University - 5.7523% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.0004%0.1895%559
154.7519%0.5157%1521
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0340%0.0468%138
155.7287%4.5576%13441
1638.8471%21.2270%62601
1745.4798%22.9028%67543
184.1581%0.5605%1653

Maine - 3.5195% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.2892%0.0814%240
152.2303%0.1363%402
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0214%0.0139%41
151.5180%0.3387%999
1610.8991%3.4821%10269
1731.0451%19.1837%56575
1852.9816%26.7520%78895
190.0152%0.0119%35

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7255%12.5000%36864
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
451.7920%6.1981%18279
460.9211%6.2683%18486
470.0124%0.0336%99
4997.2745%37.5000%110592