Prediction if Notre Dame wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Michigan100.0000%4
Merrimack100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%5
Miami100.0000%6
Union100.0000%8
Notre Dame100.0000%9
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%10
New Hampshire99.9988%11
Colorado College94.2343%14
Nebraska-Omaha90.7696%13
Western Michigan66.5739%11
Rensselaer56.4001%15
Dartmouth55.3762%15
RIT36.7267%16
Air Force33.5886%16
Holy Cross17.1314%16
Connecticut12.5532%16
Cornell11.0718%15
Bemidji State9.1842%15
Boston University7.6754%15
Northeastern5.2652%16
Colgate2.7255%16
Maine0.7250%15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.3384%25.3594%74788
24.7613%9.9921%29468
35.8926%14.5362%42869
40.0076%0.1122%331

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.3990%15.3392%45237
264.4215%20.7269%61126
329.1795%13.9340%41093

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
14.2626%9.3014%27431
230.8153%19.2454%56757
360.7326%20.6719%60964
44.1895%0.7812%2304

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
20.0019%0.0356%105
34.1953%0.8579%2530
445.1745%21.8126%64328
526.1418%13.2853%39180
611.5473%4.6129%13604
75.8236%2.5208%7434
83.2118%3.5777%10551
93.3571%2.7147%8006
100.5469%0.5825%1718

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
422.4612%12.4929%36843
511.6180%4.3101%12711
610.6233%5.2304%15425
713.7349%6.9855%20601
820.7204%8.0109%23625
915.2292%9.5490%28161
105.6129%3.4214%10090

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
418.7581%8.1533%24045
527.1034%12.4851%36820
623.0866%11.9982%35384
717.8948%10.1810%30025
811.2587%5.9970%17686
91.4560%0.7846%2314
100.4424%0.4008%1182

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
43.8461%4.4101%13006
519.1171%10.2915%30351
626.4667%10.8178%31903
721.3877%6.5833%19415
816.4602%7.5477%22259
911.7139%9.1980%27126
101.0083%1.1515%3396

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0596%0.1682%496
65.1593%5.3419%15754
722.0150%13.8835%40944
837.0987%16.6941%49233
933.2556%13.1921%38905
102.4118%0.7202%2124

Notre Dame - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
45.5530%2.2349%6591
514.4111%8.1156%23934
618.4047%9.0315%26635
712.3699%6.1215%18053
87.4995%5.3341%15731
932.3068%13.4247%39591
109.3744%5.6837%16762
110.0808%0.0539%159

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
70.0306%0.0397%117
80.2257%0.2299%678
90.6501%0.2869%846
1079.2757%36.9975%109110
1119.8178%12.4461%36705

New Hampshire - 99.9988% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
40.0100%0.0027%8
51.5491%1.3441%3964
64.7122%2.9673%8751
76.7434%3.6848%10867
83.5250%2.6086%7693
92.0313%0.8501%2507
101.3276%1.0423%3074
1146.7479%19.7686%58300
1224.9328%11.5519%34068
137.5043%4.7078%13884
140.8768%1.3479%3975
150.0384%0.0868%256
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0001%0.0051%15
140.0009%0.0264%78
150.0002%0.0054%16

Colorado College - 94.2343% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
114.0642%2.2329%6585
1226.7877%12.2877%36238
1317.7670%9.8002%28902
1437.3728%10.1091%29813
158.2426%2.5401%7491
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0182%0.3293%971
140.7486%3.7357%11017
151.6594%4.5278%13353
163.3394%4.4373%13086

Nebraska-Omaha - 90.7696% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1215.6560%2.2112%6521
1342.8143%14.2066%41897
1420.5505%9.0071%26563
1511.7488%4.1477%12232
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0276%0.6449%1902
140.5522%3.0938%9124
154.0328%11.1260%32812
164.6178%5.5627%16405

Western Michigan - 66.5739% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1121.4799%12.6895%37423
1218.3613%13.2887%39190
1313.7000%7.5745%22338
145.6126%1.9216%5667
157.4201%0.4605%1358
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1028%0.1444%426
151.0007%0.9243%2726
163.0971%2.6140%7709
1718.3571%6.4480%19016
1810.7084%3.6665%10813
190.1600%0.2679%790

Rensselaer - 56.4001% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.2442%0.1668%492
121.8037%1.9908%5871
138.5403%8.0695%23798
1419.8811%11.8245%34872
1525.9308%4.4352%13080
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0197%0.4862%1434
140.7725%4.2694%12591
1511.4556%11.6425%34335
1629.0803%6.8383%20167
172.2719%0.2767%816

Dartmouth - 55.3762% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
117.5651%2.6421%7792
1212.4586%8.6697%25568
139.6074%4.0788%12029
1411.4635%2.8687%8460
1514.2817%1.5218%4488
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0011%0.0970%286
140.0753%1.0942%3227
153.0171%3.2101%9467
1620.3813%8.0526%23748
1711.8653%4.6726%13780
185.3351%5.2456%15470
193.2994%5.1561%15206
200.5302%2.4862%7332
210.0991%0.1709%504
220.0199%0.0336%99

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0512%0.7714%2275
152.8116%4.6699%13772
1633.8639%7.0587%20817
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0007%0.0017%5
200.0114%0.0298%88
2112.6613%3.4553%10190
2211.2834%3.0128%8885
239.1444%3.1538%9301
243.0246%1.6730%4934
250.2747%0.6819%2011
260.3669%0.6351%1873
272.7910%1.1776%3473
2815.6106%7.5551%22281
2925.8964%14.9363%44049
3016.3015%10.6232%31329
312.6333%3.0643%9037

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0482%0.7812%2304
152.5876%4.6875%13824
1630.9529%7.0312%20736
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0062%0.0112%33
216.3628%2.4865%7333
2214.0238%2.7259%8039
232.6900%1.0946%3228
244.7744%2.3577%6953
254.4085%2.6994%7961
260.8816%0.8765%2585
272.6141%1.7056%5030
289.9418%4.8842%14404
2917.6061%7.7196%22766
3032.9517%15.3371%45231
313.7389%8.1017%23893

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.4669%3.1250%9216
1616.6645%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
372.9756%2.4668%7275
386.8128%3.9008%11504
397.4101%6.3555%18743
4021.7000%12.2725%36193
4161.1015%25.0044%73741

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3421%3.1250%9216
1612.2111%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4212.1275%12.3033%36284
430.4257%0.1967%580
4536.7686%20.9418%61760
4649.8706%14.7210%43414
470.8076%1.8372%5418

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.5830%3.1250%9216
1510.4888%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
207.9478%7.6070%22434
212.4937%4.0660%11991
220.7951%0.8660%2554
230.2944%0.0305%90
242.3404%0.7446%2196
255.3974%1.8202%5368
2612.2915%7.3947%21808
2721.9556%9.3486%27570
2821.5966%5.6234%16584
2913.8554%3.2613%9618
306.0323%4.1121%12127
313.7521%3.3759%9956
321.2053%1.6985%5009
330.0425%0.0512%151

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0667%1.5625%4608
141.6173%6.2500%18432
157.5002%4.6875%13824
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.0002%0.0007%2
182.3176%2.9510%8703
191.7793%2.6272%7748
205.1110%6.9485%20492
213.4339%1.5015%4428
2216.4517%6.7997%20053
2313.7429%7.7277%22790
2417.6958%4.1436%12220
2510.6933%6.4395%18991
2623.1860%8.2275%24264
275.5581%2.5279%7455
280.0300%0.1051%310

Boston University - 7.6754% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.6852%0.3869%1141
155.9902%0.7890%2327
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0889%0.1312%387
154.4025%4.3396%12798
1636.2695%20.4156%60208
1750.8981%23.6983%69889
180.6656%0.2394%706

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0441%1.5723%4637
151.6390%6.2676%18484
163.5821%4.6600%13743
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.2804%0.6066%1789
230.0482%0.1889%557
240.7051%1.5435%4552
251.0340%2.1596%6369
261.0933%2.6126%7705
271.1866%2.7303%8052
280.8513%2.3919%7054
290.2304%0.6649%1961
304.3047%4.8933%14431
318.6144%7.2083%21258
322.5205%1.0200%3008
3338.7362%7.6643%22603
3440.3950%16.3157%48117

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7255%12.5000%36864
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
451.7806%6.1598%18166
460.9285%6.2815%18525
470.0165%0.0587%173
4997.2745%37.5000%110592

Maine - 0.7250% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2138%0.0342%101
150.5112%0.0814%240
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0027%0.0047%14
150.2678%0.1617%477
163.2146%2.0796%6133
1716.6052%14.9000%43942
1869.0406%26.6741%78665
199.6755%5.6607%16694
200.4686%0.4035%1190