Prediction if RIT wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

Team	Likelihood	Most Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale	100.0000%	1
North Dakota	100.0000%	2
Boston College	100.0000%	3
Michigan	100.0000%	4
Miami	100.0000%	4
Denver	100.0000%	6
Union	100.0000%	8
Merrimack	100.0000%	9
Minnesota-Duluth	100.0000%	10
Notre Dame	99.9925%	10
New Hampshire	99.9908%	11
Nebraska-Omaha	91.0606%	13
Colorado College	89.5803%	14
Rensselaer	69.1297%	15
Western Michigan	64.0511%	11
RIT	54.9371%	16
Dartmouth	50.7234%	14
Air Force	30.1616%	16
Holy Cross	14.9013%	16
Cornell	11.0718%	15
Bemidji State	9.1842%	15
Boston University	6.6018%	15
Northeastern	5.2652%	16
Colgate	2.7255%	16
Maine	0.6230%	15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	89.4608%	26.0518%	76830
2	4.8079%	11.4977%	33908
3	5.7267%	12.3756%	36497
4	0.0046%	0.0749%	221

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	6.3842%	15.2479%	44968
2	64.5431%	21.3982%	63106
3	29.0727%	13.3538%	39382

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
1	4.1550%	8.7002%	25658
2	30.6481%	17.0868%	50391
3	58.7205%	20.5943%	60735
4	6.4764%	3.6187%	10672

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
2	0.0009%	0.0173%	51
3	2.0326%	0.4476%	1320
4	36.3376%	16.7477%	49391
5	29.6378%	15.2381%	44939
6	14.9436%	6.6559%	19629
7	10.8794%	4.6034%	13576
8	4.2992%	4.6627%	13751
9	1.6121%	1.3652%	4026
10	0.2568%	0.2621%	773

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
3	4.4475%	3.2288%	9522
4	27.2413%	13.8153%	40743
5	21.6491%	11.4034%	33630
6	20.8225%	8.8047%	25966
7	11.7195%	3.7896%	11176
8	8.0089%	3.8489%	11351
9	5.6324%	4.5675%	13470
10	0.4788%	0.5419%	1598

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	10.8656%	5.2487%	15479
5	28.8743%	12.8391%	37864
6	30.3304%	14.3036%	42183
7	20.8410%	11.8191%	34856
8	8.1889%	5.2249%	15409
9	0.7504%	0.4466%	1317
10	0.1494%	0.1180%	348

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
5	0.0255%	0.0790%	233
6	3.9967%	4.4939%	13253
7	26.2884%	16.0963%	47470
8	52.1195%	22.1636%	65363
9	16.3847%	6.7627%	19944
10	1.1852%	0.4045%	1193

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	16.3823%	9.3703%	27634
5	11.7551%	5.2463%	15472
6	15.0419%	7.1611%	21119
7	15.9699%	6.9560%	20514
8	16.0163%	6.2124%	18321
9	19.3656%	11.2237%	33100
10	5.4690%	3.8303%	11296

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
7	0.0325%	0.0407%	120
8	4.6838%	2.4726%	7292
9	28.6717%	12.8832%	37994
10	54.2307%	26.4784%	78088
11	12.3813%	8.1251%	23962

Notre Dame - 99.9925% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	2.6876%	1.1234%	3313
5	6.9918%	4.0693%	12001
6	8.8886%	4.5051%	13286
7	6.0225%	3.0846%	9097
8	3.7745%	2.7907%	8230
9	26.5098%	12.1870%	35941
10	29.1811%	11.6750%	34431
11	9.3991%	4.6824%	13809
12	5.8963%	4.5980%	13560
13	0.3722%	0.7111%	2097
14	0.2554%	0.4038%	1191
15	0.0134%	0.0163%	48
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0002%	0.0142%	42
14	0.0051%	0.1255%	370
15	0.0022%	0.0136%	40

New Hampshire - 99.9908% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
4	0.0046%	0.0010%	3
5	1.0664%	1.1247%	3317
6	5.9762%	4.0758%	12020
7	8.2469%	3.6102%	10647
8	2.9090%	2.6242%	7739
9	1.0732%	0.5642%	1664
10	3.7634%	3.4000%	10027
11	44.6837%	18.1234%	53448
12	23.4857%	10.2458%	30216
13	7.2384%	4.4149%	13020
14	1.4083%	1.5605%	4602
15	0.1352%	0.1455%	429
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0005%	0.0197%	58
14	0.0079%	0.0766%	226
15	0.0008%	0.0136%	40

Nebraska-Omaha - 91.0606% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
12	17.0219%	3.1141%	9184
13	40.5849%	13.2633%	39115
14	19.9312%	9.0200%	26601
15	13.5226%	4.4461%	13112
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0213%	0.4720%	1392
14	0.6348%	3.7021%	10918
15	4.1913%	10.9843%	32394
16	4.0919%	4.9981%	14740

Colorado College - 89.5803% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.1606%	0.1234%	364
11	4.5805%	3.2335%	9536
12	25.4474%	11.3193%	33382
13	15.3682%	8.2435%	24311
14	37.1618%	9.1946%	27116
15	6.8618%	2.2790%	6721
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0126%	0.2499%	737
14	0.7327%	3.2230%	9505
15	2.9086%	6.1781%	18220
16	6.7658%	5.9557%	17564

Rensselaer - 69.1297% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
11	0.2499%	0.3347%	987
12	2.8683%	3.4186%	10082
13	13.2486%	10.6300%	31349
14	21.2108%	12.2542%	36139
15	31.5520%	4.3905%	12948
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0260%	0.5795%	1709
14	0.7350%	3.9497%	11648
15	10.3759%	9.8602%	29079
16	18.5562%	4.4312%	13068
17	1.1773%	0.1516%	447

Western Michigan - 64.0511% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	5.0945%	3.1420%	9266
11	20.1102%	11.8713%	35010
12	13.8695%	9.6670%	28509
13	14.0881%	7.6050%	22428
14	4.1591%	1.8680%	5509
15	6.7298%	0.7738%	2282
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0054%	0.1628%	480
14	0.1039%	0.3866%	1140
15	1.2431%	1.2855%	3791
16	6.0838%	2.9348%	8655
17	19.5322%	6.7213%	19822
18	8.8406%	3.3529%	9888
19	0.1399%	0.2292%	676

RIT - 54.9371% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0769%	1.5469%	4562
15	4.2186%	9.3580%	27598
16	50.6416%	14.0951%	41568
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
19	0.0005%	0.0020%	6
20	0.0116%	0.0417%	123
21	16.5387%	6.3151%	18624
22	18.5521%	6.2039%	18296
23	13.9858%	6.4609%	19054
24	4.8652%	3.5906%	10589
25	0.4816%	1.3350%	3937
26	0.6327%	1.4279%	4211
27	3.8304%	2.0498%	6045
28	18.0652%	9.7887%	28868
29	19.3042%	8.5836%	25314
30	1.1040%	2.2264%	6566
31	2.6280%	1.9745%	5823

Dartmouth - 50.7234% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
10	0.0306%	0.0244%	72
11	8.5953%	3.6296%	10704
12	11.4109%	7.6372%	22523
13	9.0328%	3.5699%	10528
14	11.7173%	2.8256%	8333
15	9.9365%	1.2071%	3560
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0006%	0.0644%	190
14	0.0631%	0.9423%	2779
15	3.0088%	3.2803%	9674
16	24.8871%	9.0522%	26696
17	11.5455%	4.5929%	13545
18	5.6777%	5.1907%	15308
19	3.4276%	5.2131%	15374
20	0.5354%	2.5119%	7408
21	0.1104%	0.2228%	657
22	0.0204%	0.0356%	105

Air Force - 30.1616% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0433%	0.7812%	2304
15	2.3236%	4.6875%	13824
16	27.7948%	7.0312%	20736
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	0.0059%	0.0149%	44
21	6.3522%	2.5692%	7577
22	14.9426%	3.4197%	10085
23	3.0123%	1.2370%	3648
24	2.5599%	2.0854%	6150
25	2.7574%	2.5113%	7406
26	0.5272%	0.6571%	1938
27	0.4691%	0.4862%	1434
28	7.9189%	2.0382%	6011
29	24.4239%	10.5543%	31126
30	33.7629%	17.0081%	50159
31	3.2677%	7.4185%	21878

Holy Cross - 14.9013% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
15	0.4061%	3.1250%	9216
16	14.4952%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
37	3.1478%	3.5051%	10337
38	8.8377%	5.8740%	17323
39	2.9653%	3.3546%	9893
40	23.9526%	12.2664%	36175
41	61.0966%	25.0000%	73728

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.5830%	3.1250%	9216
15	10.4888%	9.3750%	27648
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
20	8.3685%	7.8478%	23144
21	2.0825%	3.9486%	11645
22	0.6810%	0.7178%	2117
23	0.2726%	0.0424%	125
24	1.4148%	0.4327%	1276
25	5.3992%	1.8507%	5458
26	12.4091%	5.2077%	15358
27	24.4304%	10.8771%	32078
28	17.1575%	5.0157%	14792
29	17.2887%	4.2901%	12652
30	5.6303%	4.5793%	13505
31	3.8396%	3.5817%	10563
32	1.0085%	1.5852%	4675
33	0.0173%	0.0231%	68

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
13	0.0667%	1.5625%	4608
14	1.6173%	6.2500%	18432
15	7.5002%	4.6875%	13824
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
17	0.0001%	0.0007%	2
18	2.1422%	2.8697%	8463
19	1.9101%	2.6994%	7961
20	5.1326%	6.9343%	20450
21	1.7642%	0.8796%	2594
22	15.0102%	5.4779%	16155
23	15.3597%	8.4106%	24804
24	18.0758%	4.1755%	12314
25	10.4454%	5.6302%	16604
26	23.6727%	9.3150%	27471
27	6.4592%	3.4715%	10238
28	0.0277%	0.1356%	400

Boston University - 6.6018% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	1.5787%	0.3337%	984
15	5.0231%	0.7436%	2193
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0579%	0.0885%	261
15	3.8530%	4.1755%	12314
16	36.4231%	20.6329%	60849
17	52.3429%	23.7813%	70134
18	0.7214%	0.2445%	721

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0234%	0.7968%	2350
15	0.8989%	4.7045%	13874
16	4.3429%	6.9987%	20640
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
22	0.1036%	0.2492%	735
23	0.0203%	0.0963%	284
24	0.5970%	1.1820%	3486
25	0.9009%	1.8504%	5457
26	1.0055%	2.4302%	7167
27	1.5695%	3.4007%	10029
28	1.0455%	3.1569%	9310
29	0.1475%	0.4076%	1202
30	4.8311%	5.5345%	16322
31	8.1274%	6.6922%	19736
32	2.3159%	0.8253%	2434
33	32.8112%	5.9916%	17670
34	46.5246%	18.1831%	53624

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
16	2.7255%	12.5000%	36864
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
45	2.6492%	12.2830%	36224
46	0.0764%	0.2170%	640
49	97.2745%	37.5000%	110592

Maine - 0.6230% Chance of being in the tournament

Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.2336%	0.0397%	117
15	0.3893%	0.0607%	179
Seed	Weighted	Unweighted	Permutations
14	0.0034%	0.0058%	17
15	0.2527%	0.1465%	432
16	3.1922%	1.9952%	5884
17	15.4001%	14.7478%	43493
18	71.2506%	27.1545%	80082
19	8.8834%	5.4735%	16142
20	0.3946%	0.3764%	1110