Prediction if Western Michigan wins its Semifinal

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Miami100.0000%4
Michigan100.0000%5
Denver100.0000%5
Union100.0000%8
Merrimack100.0000%9
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%10
Notre Dame99.9795%9
New Hampshire99.9758%12
Western Michigan99.8758%11
Colorado College87.5937%14
Nebraska-Omaha81.7470%13
Rensselaer63.9913%15
Dartmouth37.7124%15
RIT36.7267%16
Air Force33.5886%16
Holy Cross17.1314%16
Connecticut12.5532%16
Cornell11.0718%15
Bemidji State9.1842%15
Northeastern5.2652%16
Colgate2.7255%16
Boston University0.5573%15
Maine0.3205%15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.4991%26.1197%77030
24.6124%11.1369%32844
35.8885%12.7424%37579
40.0000%0.0010%3

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.3670%15.2059%44844
264.5802%21.4322%63206
329.0529%13.3620%39406

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
14.1340%8.6745%25582
230.8074%17.4310%51406
359.8827%20.6736%60969
45.1759%3.2210%9499

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
35.1760%3.2220%9502
438.9648%18.3757%54192
514.9801%9.8555%29065
611.8303%6.1924%18262
710.1649%3.5214%10385
810.1732%3.9527%11657
97.9985%4.3955%12963
100.7123%0.4849%1430

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
412.7422%8.6327%25459
524.6813%12.8825%37992
622.9089%8.2611%24363
722.8335%7.6809%22652
811.6705%9.2455%27266
94.4403%2.7147%8006
100.7233%0.5825%1718

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.3581%8.1533%24045
533.0766%14.3731%42388
621.1264%11.6184%34264
718.3021%11.2678%33230
86.3304%4.1833%12337
90.5861%0.2489%734
100.2204%0.1553%458

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
67.8167%7.1459%21074
729.7896%17.4259%51391
847.2739%19.8212%58455
914.1116%5.2911%15604
101.0082%0.3160%932

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
415.4011%9.3787%27659
513.8818%5.6417%16638
619.6955%8.7016%25662
710.4321%5.2032%15345
814.8904%6.3938%18856
920.9505%11.8774%35028
104.7486%2.8035%8268

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
83.9182%1.7805%5251
930.7015%12.0884%35650
1053.5796%27.7978%81979
1111.8007%8.3333%24576

Notre Dame - 99.9795% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
47.3446%2.2349%6591
510.7543%5.0947%15025
68.3054%3.9198%11560
73.0605%1.7405%5133
83.0223%2.1823%6436
920.9115%13.1215%38697
1020.7363%9.0396%26659
1115.3205%5.8065%17124
128.8911%4.7190%13917
130.8986%0.9928%2928
140.6975%0.8077%2382
150.0367%0.0326%96
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0007%0.0288%85
140.0140%0.2519%743
150.0059%0.0271%80

New Hampshire - 99.9758% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
40.0132%0.0027%8
52.6259%2.1525%6348
68.3169%4.1609%12271
75.4173%3.1603%9320
82.7211%2.4407%7198
90.3001%0.2625%774
103.8134%2.2342%6589
1120.4683%11.5550%34077
1235.5250%13.7051%40418
1317.0722%7.2154%21279
143.3626%2.6594%7843
150.3398%0.2465%727
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0014%0.0387%114
140.0210%0.1444%426
150.0018%0.0217%64

Western Michigan - 99.8758% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1013.9355%6.2910%18553
1142.5269%19.5218%57572
1231.6111%15.1683%44733
1310.7825%7.3076%21551
140.8045%1.0064%2968
150.2154%0.1573%464
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0069%0.1302%384
140.0276%0.1736%512
150.0897%0.2438%719

Colorado College - 87.5937% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.4387%0.2462%726
113.3625%2.1942%6471
125.6369%5.4925%16198
1323.0673%10.7747%31776
1445.3465%10.3455%30510
159.7418%2.9677%8752
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0113%0.2625%774
141.1084%3.8744%11426
153.9207%7.1784%21170
167.3658%6.6640%19653

Nebraska-Omaha - 81.7470% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
123.1768%1.1146%3287
1338.8229%10.8412%31972
1423.0101%7.7928%22982
1516.7372%3.9015%11506
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0209%0.4249%1253
140.5358%2.6727%7882
157.5146%14.5399%42880
1610.1817%8.7124%25694

Rensselaer - 63.9913% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.0125%0.0817%241
122.7465%2.8843%8506
137.8785%7.8888%23265
1423.5153%13.0429%38465
1529.8386%4.9974%14738
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0239%0.5510%1625
140.5584%4.4566%13143
1513.0991%10.7951%31836
1622.1681%5.2141%15377
170.1592%0.0882%260

Dartmouth - 37.7124% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0836%0.0488%144
116.5086%2.5075%7395
1212.4127%6.9163%20397
131.4113%3.4170%10077
140.9197%1.8453%5442
1516.3765%1.6259%4795
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0016%0.1265%373
140.0786%0.9264%2732
150.8345%2.8792%8491
1639.8452%11.5085%33940
1711.3828%4.2864%12641
186.1336%6.3385%18693
193.5555%5.1676%15240
200.4326%2.3519%6936
210.0232%0.0543%160

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0515%0.7738%2282
152.8107%4.6736%13783
1633.8645%7.0526%20799
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0009%0.0020%6
200.0188%0.0359%106
2116.2504%3.8930%11481
2210.4942%3.1026%9150
237.0398%2.9524%8707
242.3067%1.3906%4101
250.3382%0.7067%2084
260.3518%0.6114%1803
272.8280%1.2316%3632
2815.5031%7.5290%22204
2926.0447%14.9129%43980
3016.1822%10.5560%31131
312.6412%3.0758%9071

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0482%0.7812%2304
152.5876%4.6875%13824
1630.9529%7.0312%20736
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0088%0.0122%36
2111.5971%3.1226%9209
228.4243%2.1162%6241
232.0470%0.9467%2792
246.0977%2.4821%7320
253.8638%2.5489%7517
261.1058%0.9494%2800
272.6506%1.7761%5238
289.9800%4.9130%14489
2917.5810%7.7942%22986
3033.4016%15.7291%46387
313.2422%7.6094%22441

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.4669%3.1250%9216
1616.6645%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
373.5845%2.6754%7890
386.2672%3.6218%10681
397.3205%6.3266%18658
4021.6822%12.3484%36417
4161.1456%25.0278%73810

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3421%3.1250%9216
1612.2111%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4211.5239%12.1253%35759
431.0293%0.3747%1105
4538.7274%21.3155%62862
4647.9727%14.4830%42712
470.7467%1.7015%5018

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.5830%3.1250%9216
1510.4888%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
209.6225%8.8145%25995
211.4373%3.6730%10832
220.2845%0.0699%206
230.4722%0.0393%116
243.3999%0.9352%2758
256.4284%2.0508%6048
2610.8898%7.4972%22110
2722.4509%9.2160%27179
2821.1782%5.4392%16041
2913.5102%3.1145%9185
305.6198%4.2792%12620
313.7775%3.3617%9914
320.9194%1.4984%4419
330.0094%0.0112%33

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0667%1.5625%4608
141.6173%6.2500%18432
157.5002%4.6875%13824
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.0002%0.0007%2
181.4257%1.8497%5455
191.5013%2.5292%7459
206.2570%8.1228%23955
212.1576%0.7456%2199
2211.8408%6.2463%18421
2312.1045%7.1587%21112
2417.5720%4.0802%12033
2511.2340%6.8342%20155
2628.1829%9.2590%27306
277.6817%3.0575%9017
280.0421%0.1160%342

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0438%1.5700%4630
151.6399%6.2639%18473
163.5815%4.6661%13761
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.2392%0.4866%1435
230.0392%0.1444%426
240.7436%1.4760%4353
250.8303%1.7802%5250
260.9604%2.4682%7279
271.3514%3.1511%9293
281.0282%2.7228%8030
290.1933%0.5758%1698
303.8449%4.4603%13154
319.1179%7.7345%22810
323.0628%1.0254%3024
3330.6482%6.6800%19700
3447.9407%17.2947%51004

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7255%12.5000%36864
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
451.8060%6.2117%18319
460.9134%6.2619%18467
470.0061%0.0264%78
4997.2745%37.5000%110592

Boston University - 0.5573% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.5573%0.0838%247
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2531%0.1797%530
1618.4627%17.2248%50798
1779.0906%32.0950%94652
181.6363%0.4167%1229

Maine - 0.3205% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3205%0.0498%147
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.1169%0.0726%214
161.9765%0.6761%1994
179.3638%13.5257%39889
1878.7216%30.0605%88652
199.2654%5.3969%15916
200.2353%0.2184%644