Overall Prediction - After WCHA Play-ins
All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.
Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
1 | 89.4582% | 52.0315% | 153447 |
2 | 4.8089% | 23.0187% | 67885 |
3 | 5.7282% | 24.7935% | 73119 |
4 | 0.0047% | 0.1563% | 461 |
North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
1 | 6.3865% | 30.5542% | 90108 |
2 | 64.5405% | 42.7260% | 126004 |
3 | 29.0730% | 26.7198% | 78800 |
Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
1 | 4.1553% | 17.4143% | 51357 |
2 | 30.6497% | 34.2197% | 100918 |
3 | 58.7196% | 41.1469% | 121347 |
4 | 6.4755% | 7.2191% | 21290 |
Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
2 | 0.0009% | 0.0356% | 105 |
3 | 2.0328% | 0.9009% | 2657 |
4 | 36.3376% | 33.4883% | 98761 |
5 | 29.6555% | 30.4420% | 89777 |
6 | 14.9308% | 13.3470% | 39362 |
7 | 10.8785% | 9.2434% | 27260 |
8 | 4.2732% | 9.2455% | 27266 |
9 | 1.6258% | 2.7147% | 8006 |
10 | 0.2649% | 0.5825% | 1718 |
Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
3 | 4.4465% | 6.4389% | 18989 |
4 | 27.2371% | 27.6588% | 81569 |
5 | 21.6287% | 22.7915% | 67215 |
6 | 20.8428% | 17.5886% | 51871 |
7 | 11.7119% | 7.6250% | 22487 |
8 | 7.9717% | 7.5477% | 22259 |
9 | 5.6730% | 9.1980% | 27126 |
10 | 0.4883% | 1.1515% | 3396 |
Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 10.8665% | 10.4970% | 30957 |
5 | 28.8544% | 25.5832% | 75448 |
6 | 30.3204% | 28.4899% | 84020 |
7 | 20.7783% | 23.5304% | 69394 |
8 | 8.2611% | 10.7140% | 31597 |
9 | 0.7051% | 0.7846% | 2314 |
10 | 0.2143% | 0.4008% | 1182 |
Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
5 | 0.0289% | 0.1682% | 496 |
6 | 4.0032% | 8.9918% | 26518 |
7 | 26.0572% | 31.3653% | 92500 |
8 | 52.2541% | 44.7818% | 132067 |
9 | 16.4641% | 13.9126% | 41030 |
10 | 1.1925% | 0.7802% | 2301 |
Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 16.3846% | 18.7429% | 55275 |
5 | 11.7939% | 10.5950% | 31246 |
6 | 15.0160% | 14.3205% | 42233 |
7 | 16.3510% | 14.9390% | 44057 |
8 | 16.0130% | 12.3349% | 36377 |
9 | 19.3148% | 22.3317% | 65859 |
10 | 5.1267% | 6.7359% | 19865 |
Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
7 | 0.0284% | 0.0644% | 190 |
8 | 4.4756% | 4.4105% | 13007 |
9 | 28.5281% | 25.5619% | 75385 |
10 | 54.5631% | 53.6679% | 158273 |
11 | 12.4048% | 16.2954% | 48057 |
Notre Dame - 99.9925% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 2.6893% | 2.2349% | 6591 |
5 | 6.9792% | 8.1156% | 23934 |
6 | 8.9133% | 9.0315% | 26635 |
7 | 5.9907% | 6.1215% | 18053 |
8 | 3.8138% | 5.7339% | 16910 |
9 | 26.6126% | 24.4191% | 72015 |
10 | 29.0745% | 23.2635% | 68607 |
11 | 9.3752% | 9.3140% | 27468 |
12 | 5.9080% | 9.2255% | 27207 |
13 | 0.3669% | 1.3923% | 4106 |
14 | 0.2554% | 0.8077% | 2382 |
15 | 0.0134% | 0.0326% | 96 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0002% | 0.0288% | 85 |
14 | 0.0051% | 0.2519% | 743 |
15 | 0.0022% | 0.0271% | 80 |
New Hampshire - 99.9908% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 0.0048% | 0.0027% | 8 |
5 | 1.0594% | 2.3044% | 6796 |
6 | 5.9735% | 8.2306% | 24273 |
7 | 8.2041% | 7.1109% | 20971 |
8 | 2.9375% | 5.2317% | 15429 |
9 | 1.0763% | 1.0773% | 3177 |
10 | 3.7819% | 6.8315% | 20147 |
11 | 44.6777% | 36.1498% | 106610 |
12 | 23.5513% | 20.6509% | 60902 |
13 | 7.2460% | 8.8504% | 26101 |
14 | 1.3480% | 3.0524% | 9002 |
15 | 0.1303% | 0.2845% | 839 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0005% | 0.0420% | 124 |
14 | 0.0079% | 0.1536% | 453 |
15 | 0.0008% | 0.0271% | 80 |
Nebraska-Omaha - 91.1310% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
12 | 17.1195% | 6.3063% | 18598 |
13 | 40.7850% | 26.7877% | 79000 |
14 | 19.8532% | 18.0728% | 53299 |
15 | 13.3732% | 8.7687% | 25860 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0217% | 0.9457% | 2789 |
14 | 0.6310% | 7.3663% | 21724 |
15 | 4.1382% | 21.7787% | 64228 |
16 | 4.0781% | 9.9738% | 29414 |
Colorado College - 89.7656% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
10 | 0.1606% | 0.2462% | 726 |
11 | 4.5824% | 6.4945% | 19153 |
12 | 25.4160% | 22.5013% | 66359 |
13 | 15.4268% | 16.5541% | 48820 |
14 | 37.3534% | 18.5774% | 54787 |
15 | 6.8264% | 4.5620% | 13454 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0128% | 0.5001% | 1475 |
14 | 0.7369% | 6.4826% | 19118 |
15 | 2.8239% | 12.1999% | 35979 |
16 | 6.6608% | 11.8818% | 35041 |
Rensselaer - 68.5010% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
11 | 0.2356% | 0.6619% | 1952 |
12 | 2.7267% | 6.6538% | 19623 |
13 | 12.8118% | 20.8445% | 61473 |
14 | 21.1501% | 24.3364% | 71771 |
15 | 31.5767% | 8.8704% | 26160 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0253% | 1.1488% | 3388 |
14 | 0.7333% | 7.8796% | 23238 |
15 | 10.5518% | 20.0290% | 59068 |
16 | 18.9268% | 9.2231% | 27200 |
17 | 1.2619% | 0.3523% | 1039 |
Western Michigan - 64.1771% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
10 | 5.1026% | 6.2910% | 18553 |
11 | 20.1274% | 23.8193% | 70246 |
12 | 13.8725% | 19.3169% | 56968 |
13 | 14.1602% | 15.2659% | 45021 |
14 | 4.2195% | 3.7499% | 11059 |
15 | 6.6949% | 1.5110% | 4456 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0054% | 0.3255% | 960 |
14 | 0.1033% | 0.7551% | 2227 |
15 | 1.2239% | 2.5638% | 7561 |
16 | 5.9865% | 5.6881% | 16775 |
17 | 18.9996% | 12.8740% | 37967 |
18 | 9.3522% | 7.3069% | 21549 |
19 | 0.1520% | 0.5324% | 1570 |
Dartmouth - 50.9462% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
10 | 0.0306% | 0.0488% | 144 |
11 | 8.5969% | 7.2652% | 21426 |
12 | 11.4060% | 15.3453% | 45255 |
13 | 9.1365% | 7.1801% | 21175 |
14 | 11.6692% | 5.6675% | 16714 |
15 | 10.1071% | 2.4651% | 7270 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0007% | 0.1339% | 395 |
14 | 0.0626% | 1.9172% | 5654 |
15 | 2.9862% | 6.5884% | 19430 |
16 | 24.7146% | 17.8501% | 52642 |
17 | 11.6598% | 9.3252% | 27501 |
18 | 5.6044% | 10.5696% | 31171 |
19 | 3.3351% | 10.1213% | 29849 |
20 | 0.5781% | 5.0836% | 14992 |
21 | 0.0940% | 0.3743% | 1104 |
22 | 0.0182% | 0.0644% | 190 |
RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.0514% | 1.5469% | 4562 |
15 | 2.8202% | 9.3580% | 27598 |
16 | 33.8551% | 14.0951% | 41568 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
19 | 0.0003% | 0.0020% | 6 |
20 | 0.0078% | 0.0417% | 123 |
21 | 11.0565% | 6.3151% | 18624 |
22 | 12.4025% | 6.2039% | 18296 |
23 | 9.3498% | 6.4609% | 19054 |
24 | 3.2525% | 3.5906% | 10589 |
25 | 0.3220% | 1.3350% | 3937 |
26 | 0.4237% | 1.4438% | 4258 |
27 | 2.7331% | 2.2905% | 6755 |
28 | 15.1984% | 14.8095% | 43675 |
29 | 26.0974% | 29.7852% | 87840 |
30 | 16.4991% | 21.4627% | 63296 |
31 | 2.6568% | 6.2592% | 18459 |
Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.0482% | 1.5625% | 4608 |
15 | 2.5876% | 9.3750% | 27648 |
16 | 30.9529% | 14.0625% | 41472 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
20 | 0.0039% | 0.0149% | 44 |
21 | 5.7180% | 4.3620% | 12864 |
22 | 13.9863% | 5.7451% | 16943 |
23 | 2.3596% | 1.9409% | 5724 |
24 | 4.7275% | 4.4315% | 13069 |
25 | 4.9149% | 5.7953% | 17091 |
26 | 1.4854% | 2.2451% | 6621 |
27 | 2.6321% | 3.3664% | 9928 |
28 | 9.8593% | 9.7161% | 28654 |
29 | 17.6327% | 15.5399% | 45829 |
30 | 33.0479% | 30.8750% | 91054 |
31 | 3.6324% | 15.9678% | 47091 |
Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
15 | 0.4669% | 6.2500% | 18432 |
16 | 16.6645% | 18.7500% | 55296 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
37 | 2.1615% | 3.7625% | 11096 |
38 | 6.8810% | 8.1689% | 24091 |
39 | 8.1220% | 13.3023% | 39230 |
40 | 21.6631% | 24.6894% | 72812 |
41 | 61.1724% | 50.0770% | 147683 |
Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
15 | 0.3421% | 6.2500% | 18432 |
16 | 12.2111% | 18.7500% | 55296 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
42 | 12.0064% | 24.5188% | 72309 |
43 | 0.5468% | 0.4812% | 1419 |
45 | 35.0968% | 40.8251% | 120398 |
46 | 51.4843% | 30.0964% | 88758 |
47 | 0.8656% | 4.0785% | 12028 |
Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.5830% | 6.2500% | 18432 |
15 | 10.4888% | 18.7500% | 55296 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
20 | 7.5436% | 14.8132% | 43686 |
21 | 2.7922% | 8.2937% | 24459 |
22 | 0.8389% | 1.9494% | 5749 |
23 | 0.1839% | 0.0448% | 132 |
24 | 2.0534% | 1.3234% | 3903 |
25 | 5.2083% | 3.4807% | 10265 |
26 | 13.3958% | 15.8820% | 46838 |
27 | 24.4466% | 19.1715% | 56539 |
28 | 19.5161% | 10.5455% | 31100 |
29 | 13.2353% | 6.0869% | 17951 |
30 | 6.0475% | 8.6134% | 25402 |
31 | 3.6886% | 6.7356% | 19864 |
32 | 1.0269% | 3.0039% | 8859 |
33 | 0.0229% | 0.0559% | 165 |
Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0667% | 3.1250% | 9216 |
14 | 1.6173% | 12.5000% | 36864 |
15 | 7.5002% | 9.3750% | 27648 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
17 | 0.0001% | 0.0007% | 2 |
18 | 2.0433% | 5.7017% | 16815 |
19 | 1.9523% | 5.3446% | 15762 |
20 | 5.2001% | 13.9804% | 41230 |
21 | 1.9779% | 1.7721% | 5226 |
22 | 17.5221% | 14.6396% | 43174 |
23 | 13.9238% | 15.6701% | 46213 |
24 | 17.9275% | 8.3967% | 24763 |
25 | 10.7623% | 12.8760% | 37973 |
26 | 23.2259% | 16.4954% | 48647 |
27 | 5.4407% | 4.9459% | 14586 |
28 | 0.0241% | 0.1767% | 521 |
Boston University - 6.6033% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 1.5709% | 0.6544% | 1930 |
15 | 5.0325% | 1.4943% | 4407 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.0598% | 0.1797% | 530 |
15 | 3.8307% | 8.3221% | 24543 |
16 | 36.3975% | 41.1309% | 121300 |
17 | 52.3457% | 47.6579% | 140549 |
18 | 0.7629% | 0.5605% | 1653 |
Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.0439% | 3.1406% | 9262 |
15 | 1.6304% | 12.5170% | 36914 |
16 | 3.5909% | 9.3424% | 27552 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
22 | 0.1460% | 0.7029% | 2073 |
23 | 0.0257% | 0.2411% | 711 |
24 | 0.6211% | 2.6540% | 7827 |
25 | 0.9536% | 3.9473% | 11641 |
26 | 1.0875% | 5.3304% | 15720 |
27 | 1.4100% | 6.5782% | 19400 |
28 | 0.9648% | 5.1015% | 15045 |
29 | 0.2084% | 1.1892% | 3507 |
30 | 4.2069% | 9.5740% | 28235 |
31 | 8.7242% | 14.6813% | 43297 |
32 | 2.9585% | 2.2244% | 6560 |
33 | 38.0415% | 15.2805% | 45064 |
34 | 40.6517% | 32.4951% | 95832 |
Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
16 | 2.7255% | 25.0000% | 73728 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
45 | 1.7710% | 12.2830% | 36224 |
46 | 0.9332% | 12.5580% | 37035 |
47 | 0.0213% | 0.1590% | 469 |
49 | 97.2745% | 75.0000% | 221184 |
Maine - 0.6458% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.2366% | 0.0814% | 240 |
15 | 0.4092% | 0.1363% | 402 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.0039% | 0.0139% | 41 |
15 | 0.2785% | 0.3387% | 999 |
16 | 3.2357% | 4.2521% | 12540 |
17 | 15.7316% | 29.7855% | 87841 |
18 | 71.4812% | 54.4847% | 160682 |
19 | 8.2797% | 10.2302% | 30170 |
20 | 0.3435% | 0.6772% | 1997 |