Overall Prediction - After WCHA Play-ins

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Michigan100.0000%4
Miami100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%6
Union100.0000%8
Merrimack100.0000%9
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%10
Notre Dame99.9925%10
New Hampshire99.9908%11
Nebraska-Omaha91.1310%13
Colorado College89.7656%14
Rensselaer68.5010%15
Western Michigan64.1771%11
Dartmouth50.9462%14
RIT36.7267%16
Air Force33.5886%16
Holy Cross17.1314%16
Connecticut12.5532%16
Cornell11.0718%15
Bemidji State9.1842%15
Boston University6.6033%15
Northeastern5.2652%16
Colgate2.7255%16
Maine0.6458%15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.4582%52.0315%153447
24.8089%23.0187%67885
35.7282%24.7935%73119
40.0047%0.1563%461

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.3865%30.5542%90108
264.5405%42.7260%126004
329.0730%26.7198%78800

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
14.1553%17.4143%51357
230.6497%34.2197%100918
358.7196%41.1469%121347
46.4755%7.2191%21290

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
20.0009%0.0356%105
32.0328%0.9009%2657
436.3376%33.4883%98761
529.6555%30.4420%89777
614.9308%13.3470%39362
710.8785%9.2434%27260
84.2732%9.2455%27266
91.6258%2.7147%8006
100.2649%0.5825%1718

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
34.4465%6.4389%18989
427.2371%27.6588%81569
521.6287%22.7915%67215
620.8428%17.5886%51871
711.7119%7.6250%22487
87.9717%7.5477%22259
95.6730%9.1980%27126
100.4883%1.1515%3396

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
410.8665%10.4970%30957
528.8544%25.5832%75448
630.3204%28.4899%84020
720.7783%23.5304%69394
88.2611%10.7140%31597
90.7051%0.7846%2314
100.2143%0.4008%1182

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0289%0.1682%496
64.0032%8.9918%26518
726.0572%31.3653%92500
852.2541%44.7818%132067
916.4641%13.9126%41030
101.1925%0.7802%2301

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
416.3846%18.7429%55275
511.7939%10.5950%31246
615.0160%14.3205%42233
716.3510%14.9390%44057
816.0130%12.3349%36377
919.3148%22.3317%65859
105.1267%6.7359%19865

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
70.0284%0.0644%190
84.4756%4.4105%13007
928.5281%25.5619%75385
1054.5631%53.6679%158273
1112.4048%16.2954%48057

Notre Dame - 99.9925% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
42.6893%2.2349%6591
56.9792%8.1156%23934
68.9133%9.0315%26635
75.9907%6.1215%18053
83.8138%5.7339%16910
926.6126%24.4191%72015
1029.0745%23.2635%68607
119.3752%9.3140%27468
125.9080%9.2255%27207
130.3669%1.3923%4106
140.2554%0.8077%2382
150.0134%0.0326%96
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0002%0.0288%85
140.0051%0.2519%743
150.0022%0.0271%80

New Hampshire - 99.9908% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
40.0048%0.0027%8
51.0594%2.3044%6796
65.9735%8.2306%24273
78.2041%7.1109%20971
82.9375%5.2317%15429
91.0763%1.0773%3177
103.7819%6.8315%20147
1144.6777%36.1498%106610
1223.5513%20.6509%60902
137.2460%8.8504%26101
141.3480%3.0524%9002
150.1303%0.2845%839
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0005%0.0420%124
140.0079%0.1536%453
150.0008%0.0271%80

Nebraska-Omaha - 91.1310% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1217.1195%6.3063%18598
1340.7850%26.7877%79000
1419.8532%18.0728%53299
1513.3732%8.7687%25860
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0217%0.9457%2789
140.6310%7.3663%21724
154.1382%21.7787%64228
164.0781%9.9738%29414

Colorado College - 89.7656% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.1606%0.2462%726
114.5824%6.4945%19153
1225.4160%22.5013%66359
1315.4268%16.5541%48820
1437.3534%18.5774%54787
156.8264%4.5620%13454
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0128%0.5001%1475
140.7369%6.4826%19118
152.8239%12.1999%35979
166.6608%11.8818%35041

Rensselaer - 68.5010% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
110.2356%0.6619%1952
122.7267%6.6538%19623
1312.8118%20.8445%61473
1421.1501%24.3364%71771
1531.5767%8.8704%26160
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0253%1.1488%3388
140.7333%7.8796%23238
1510.5518%20.0290%59068
1618.9268%9.2231%27200
171.2619%0.3523%1039

Western Michigan - 64.1771% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
105.1026%6.2910%18553
1120.1274%23.8193%70246
1213.8725%19.3169%56968
1314.1602%15.2659%45021
144.2195%3.7499%11059
156.6949%1.5110%4456
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0054%0.3255%960
140.1033%0.7551%2227
151.2239%2.5638%7561
165.9865%5.6881%16775
1718.9996%12.8740%37967
189.3522%7.3069%21549
190.1520%0.5324%1570

Dartmouth - 50.9462% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0306%0.0488%144
118.5969%7.2652%21426
1211.4060%15.3453%45255
139.1365%7.1801%21175
1411.6692%5.6675%16714
1510.1071%2.4651%7270
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0007%0.1339%395
140.0626%1.9172%5654
152.9862%6.5884%19430
1624.7146%17.8501%52642
1711.6598%9.3252%27501
185.6044%10.5696%31171
193.3351%10.1213%29849
200.5781%5.0836%14992
210.0940%0.3743%1104
220.0182%0.0644%190

RIT - 36.7267% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0514%1.5469%4562
152.8202%9.3580%27598
1633.8551%14.0951%41568
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0003%0.0020%6
200.0078%0.0417%123
2111.0565%6.3151%18624
2212.4025%6.2039%18296
239.3498%6.4609%19054
243.2525%3.5906%10589
250.3220%1.3350%3937
260.4237%1.4438%4258
272.7331%2.2905%6755
2815.1984%14.8095%43675
2926.0974%29.7852%87840
3016.4991%21.4627%63296
312.6568%6.2592%18459

Air Force - 33.5886% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0482%1.5625%4608
152.5876%9.3750%27648
1630.9529%14.0625%41472
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0039%0.0149%44
215.7180%4.3620%12864
2213.9863%5.7451%16943
232.3596%1.9409%5724
244.7275%4.4315%13069
254.9149%5.7953%17091
261.4854%2.2451%6621
272.6321%3.3664%9928
289.8593%9.7161%28654
2917.6327%15.5399%45829
3033.0479%30.8750%91054
313.6324%15.9678%47091

Holy Cross - 17.1314% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.4669%6.2500%18432
1616.6645%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
372.1615%3.7625%11096
386.8810%8.1689%24091
398.1220%13.3023%39230
4021.6631%24.6894%72812
4161.1724%50.0770%147683

Connecticut - 12.5532% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3421%6.2500%18432
1612.2111%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4212.0064%24.5188%72309
430.5468%0.4812%1419
4535.0968%40.8251%120398
4651.4843%30.0964%88758
470.8656%4.0785%12028

Cornell - 11.0718% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.5830%6.2500%18432
1510.4888%18.7500%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
207.5436%14.8132%43686
212.7922%8.2937%24459
220.8389%1.9494%5749
230.1839%0.0448%132
242.0534%1.3234%3903
255.2083%3.4807%10265
2613.3958%15.8820%46838
2724.4466%19.1715%56539
2819.5161%10.5455%31100
2913.2353%6.0869%17951
306.0475%8.6134%25402
313.6886%6.7356%19864
321.0269%3.0039%8859
330.0229%0.0559%165

Bemidji State - 9.1842% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0667%3.1250%9216
141.6173%12.5000%36864
157.5002%9.3750%27648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.0001%0.0007%2
182.0433%5.7017%16815
191.9523%5.3446%15762
205.2001%13.9804%41230
211.9779%1.7721%5226
2217.5221%14.6396%43174
2313.9238%15.6701%46213
2417.9275%8.3967%24763
2510.7623%12.8760%37973
2623.2259%16.4954%48647
275.4407%4.9459%14586
280.0241%0.1767%521

Boston University - 6.6033% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.5709%0.6544%1930
155.0325%1.4943%4407
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0598%0.1797%530
153.8307%8.3221%24543
1636.3975%41.1309%121300
1752.3457%47.6579%140549
180.7629%0.5605%1653

Northeastern - 5.2652% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0439%3.1406%9262
151.6304%12.5170%36914
163.5909%9.3424%27552
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.1460%0.7029%2073
230.0257%0.2411%711
240.6211%2.6540%7827
250.9536%3.9473%11641
261.0875%5.3304%15720
271.4100%6.5782%19400
280.9648%5.1015%15045
290.2084%1.1892%3507
304.2069%9.5740%28235
318.7242%14.6813%43297
322.9585%2.2244%6560
3338.0415%15.2805%45064
3440.6517%32.4951%95832

Colgate - 2.7255% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7255%25.0000%73728
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
451.7710%12.2830%36224
460.9332%12.5580%37035
470.0213%0.1590%469
4997.2745%75.0000%221184

Maine - 0.6458% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2366%0.0814%240
150.4092%0.1363%402
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0039%0.0139%41
150.2785%0.3387%999
163.2357%4.2521%12540
1715.7316%29.7855%87841
1871.4812%54.4847%160682
198.2797%10.2302%30170
200.3435%0.6772%1997