Overall predictions

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Miami100.0000%4
Michigan100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%5
Union100.0000%8
Merrimack100.0000%8
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%9
Notre Dame99.9962%10
New Hampshire99.9943%11
Nebraska-Omaha95.2101%13
Rensselaer81.3656%14
Western Michigan74.1120%11
Colorado College57.3556%14
Dartmouth57.1864%12
RIT55.3562%16
Air Force24.7723%16
Holy Cross12.0521%16
Cornell11.0941%15
Boston University8.6979%15
Connecticut7.8194%16
Northeastern5.2644%16
Alaska-Anchorage3.5741%14
Colgate2.7222%16
Bemidji State2.5802%15
Maine0.8470%14

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
189.4203%51.5872%608547
24.8922%23.2135%273838
35.6837%25.0595%295614
40.0038%0.1398%1649

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
16.3478%30.8995%364505
264.0809%42.2718%498658
329.5712%26.8288%316485

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
14.2319%17.5134%206596
231.0261%34.4864%406818
358.2781%40.8849%482298
46.4638%7.1153%83936

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
34.4378%6.3461%74862
426.5426%26.2163%309260
518.4144%20.1437%237625
621.1509%18.6376%219858
714.0307%9.8193%115833
87.3457%6.1734%72824
92.7092%5.9536%70232
104.8681%5.8551%69070
110.5005%0.8548%10084

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
20.0007%0.0283%334
32.0292%0.8807%10389
434.2783%30.6048%361029
528.4025%29.3300%345991
618.1512%16.5799%195585
79.7694%8.1966%96691
82.5327%6.5615%77403
93.2799%5.7259%67545
101.2947%1.6752%19762
110.2613%0.4170%4919

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
49.0796%10.5487%124438
523.1072%23.2924%274768
622.0565%24.3969%287798
721.9743%22.3555%263716
815.7629%14.0192%165377
97.1488%4.8594%57324
100.6018%0.2925%3450
110.2690%0.2354%2777

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0119%0.0886%1045
62.6286%7.1085%83855
720.2973%27.6024%325611
838.4393%37.3497%440595
931.8253%23.1121%272641
106.0764%4.3734%51591
110.7213%0.3654%4310

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
415.0513%17.1832%202701
510.4054%9.9073%116871
612.2541%10.9219%128840
712.8428%12.4537%146910
818.3270%14.9923%176856
915.9554%18.8296%222123
1014.4053%15.0608%177665
110.7587%0.6512%7682

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
46.1939%6.4067%75577
513.1025%8.9526%105609
610.8163%7.3850%87117
74.7657%4.6608%54981
811.7189%10.8731%128264
927.6532%24.7208%291619
1021.1177%28.3718%334687
114.6317%8.6292%101794

Notre Dame - 99.9962% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
42.3794%1.7788%20983
56.0022%7.0479%83140
69.2869%9.5258%112371
76.1729%6.3637%75069
82.1430%3.5784%42213
910.2295%14.5951%172171
1042.8033%31.2035%368092
1114.3086%13.5301%159608
126.0695%9.3948%110826
130.4660%2.3333%27525
140.1286%0.4484%5289
150.0062%0.0163%192
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0002%0.0361%426
140.0026%0.1342%1583
150.0010%0.0136%160

New Hampshire - 99.9943% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
40.0071%0.0064%75
50.5539%1.2376%14599
63.6554%5.4443%64224
710.1469%8.5481%100837
83.7305%6.4524%76116
91.1986%2.2035%25993
103.4574%6.4376%75941
1145.8526%36.3241%428496
1221.7693%19.9887%235796
137.6493%10.0483%118534
141.9100%2.9465%34758
150.0632%0.1446%1706
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0006%0.0858%1012
140.0045%0.1177%1389
150.0007%0.0146%172

Nebraska-Omaha - 95.2101% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1215.9906%5.9020%69623
1343.3190%31.3909%370302
1423.1068%23.3193%275086
1512.7937%10.1151%119322
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0078%0.5243%6185
140.3700%7.6953%90778
152.2448%15.5357%183266
162.1672%5.5174%65086

Rensselaer - 81.3656% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0005%0.0058%68
110.4574%1.5599%18401
127.8356%12.7865%150836
1319.9679%24.7119%291514
1428.6039%27.0253%318803
1524.5002%8.2914%97809
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0062%0.5383%6350
140.3022%4.4988%53070
155.2459%13.6443%160955
1611.2954%6.4567%76166
171.7260%0.4508%5318
180.0583%0.0299%353
190.0005%0.0004%5

Western Michigan - 74.1120% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
105.2863%6.5770%77585
1121.3646%26.4515%312035
1214.1347%20.5177%242037
1312.4041%12.5724%148310
146.9716%4.4887%52951
1513.9506%2.7437%32366
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0017%0.1683%1985
140.1171%1.0315%12168
151.8667%4.3288%51065
166.7284%6.2331%73529
1712.5605%8.6764%102351
184.4774%5.5614%65605
190.1363%0.6494%7661

Colorado College - 57.3556% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0744%0.1228%1449
112.1227%3.2583%38437
1213.5298%11.3727%134158
137.9382%8.3628%98652
1421.2078%10.6144%125213
1512.4828%5.2957%62471
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0019%0.1250%1475
140.2205%2.3316%27505
155.2431%15.4142%181833
1622.2719%28.6815%338341
1713.7780%11.9442%140900
181.1220%2.4658%29088
190.0070%0.0107%126

Dartmouth - 57.1864% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0142%0.0244%288
118.7516%7.7231%91105
1219.8931%18.7015%220612
137.1842%7.2547%85580
1412.7128%7.6751%90539
158.6305%2.7445%32375
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0005%0.0847%999
140.0397%1.7039%20100
151.7526%6.9850%82398
1619.8451%10.9730%129443
1710.5549%9.0836%107155
186.9256%11.3466%133850
193.0195%10.1507%119742
200.5515%4.3925%51816
210.1174%1.0634%12544
220.0068%0.0934%1102

RIT - 55.3562% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0758%1.5314%18065
154.2381%9.3513%110312
1651.0423%14.1173%166535
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0008%0.0016%19
200.0050%0.0196%231
2117.3260%7.2878%85970
2224.2923%6.6154%78039
2311.1375%6.9363%81824
241.8409%2.1779%25691
250.8053%1.8063%21308
261.4643%2.1244%25061
271.6715%3.8487%45401
288.6694%12.9638%152927
2920.1760%28.7671%339350
3010.6236%21.3004%251270
311.9874%6.1507%72557

Air Force - 24.7723% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0355%1.5625%18432
151.9074%9.3743%110584
1622.8294%14.0632%165896
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0024%0.0127%150
214.7251%5.0758%59876
2212.6039%7.7426%91335
230.6307%1.2337%14553
244.4434%5.7896%68297
252.0459%4.0637%47937
261.0933%2.2693%26770
273.6916%3.8237%45106
2810.1569%8.9786%105916
2923.5492%14.4142%170037
3033.7690%31.4752%371296
313.2885%15.1210%178375

Holy Cross - 12.0521% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3281%6.2500%73728
1611.7240%18.7500%221184
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
372.2853%4.7046%55498
385.1755%8.6071%101533
394.6071%11.8072%139283
4026.7931%24.8129%292705
4161.1390%50.0682%590629

Cornell - 11.0941% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.5840%6.2500%73728
1510.5101%18.7500%221184
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
204.6542%8.5052%100332
212.9418%8.9122%105133
223.5053%6.5270%76996
230.5829%1.2676%14953
243.4090%3.0443%35912
2518.8359%11.9774%141291
2612.1639%14.8829%175566
2723.8431%15.2574%179984
2810.6720%7.5113%88607
299.3113%4.0422%47684
305.2163%7.5196%88705
313.4943%6.9998%82573
321.2765%3.1784%37494
330.0933%0.3745%4418

Boston University - 8.6979% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.2545%0.1867%2202
142.3336%1.6567%19543
156.1097%2.1303%25130
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1031%0.9273%10939
153.6281%8.3800%98854
1633.9957%34.7747%410219
1750.0493%45.6760%538816
183.4829%6.1184%72175
190.0430%0.1500%1770

Connecticut - 7.8194% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2129%6.2500%73728
167.6066%18.7500%221184
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
427.4330%24.4599%288541
430.3864%0.5401%6371
4525.4633%37.7239%445009
4665.5610%32.1615%379392
471.1563%5.1147%60335

Northeastern - 5.2644% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0320%3.1561%37231
151.1568%12.5244%147744
164.0756%9.3195%109937
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
220.1318%0.8798%10378
230.0254%0.3537%4172
241.2479%5.0423%59481
251.4457%6.1473%72516
261.3139%5.4462%64246
270.6697%4.0653%47956
280.5287%3.1933%37670
290.7912%1.5454%18230
303.9894%9.1688%108159
318.1993%14.1581%167016
321.2960%1.3481%15903
3338.4527%15.4611%182386
3441.9083%33.1908%391535

Alaska-Anchorage - 3.5741% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.7773%1.3360%15760
130.6778%1.5233%17969
141.4575%2.8709%33867
150.6615%1.1588%13670
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0065%0.2501%2950
150.1338%2.0607%24309
160.6101%3.3002%38931
180.4650%2.5129%29643
1915.6847%15.8519%186997
2069.7022%48.7129%574641
218.8278%17.2823%203870
220.9609%2.8353%33447
230.0349%0.3047%3594

Colgate - 2.7222% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
162.7222%25.0000%294912
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
452.0652%12.1108%142865
460.6338%12.5762%148355
470.0233%0.3130%3692
4997.2778%75.0000%884736

Bemidji State - 2.5802% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0188%1.5625%18432
140.4548%6.2500%73728
152.1066%4.6875%55296
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.0000%0.0002%2
180.3613%1.9500%23003
190.5392%2.4222%28574
201.3772%6.2091%73246
210.8543%2.8006%33037
225.1631%7.4743%88171
234.5495%7.7602%91543
246.3264%4.4333%52297
255.4895%8.1923%96640
2636.2242%22.7781%268701
2733.1885%23.1411%272984
285.4657%11.0094%129872
290.4612%1.8292%21578

Maine - 0.8470% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.1201%0.0532%628
140.3852%0.2047%2415
150.3417%0.1722%2031
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0160%0.0595%702
150.3433%0.8108%9564
163.0861%4.0633%47933
1711.3311%24.1675%285091
1876.6596%56.6613%668404
197.5420%13.0502%153946
200.1749%0.7568%8928
210.0000%0.0005%6