Overall predictions
All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.
Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
1 | 89.4203% | 51.5872% | 608547 |
2 | 4.8922% | 23.2135% | 273838 |
3 | 5.6837% | 25.0595% | 295614 |
4 | 0.0038% | 0.1398% | 1649 |
North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
1 | 6.3478% | 30.8995% | 364505 |
2 | 64.0809% | 42.2718% | 498658 |
3 | 29.5712% | 26.8288% | 316485 |
Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
1 | 4.2319% | 17.5134% | 206596 |
2 | 31.0261% | 34.4864% | 406818 |
3 | 58.2781% | 40.8849% | 482298 |
4 | 6.4638% | 7.1153% | 83936 |
Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
3 | 4.4378% | 6.3461% | 74862 |
4 | 26.5426% | 26.2163% | 309260 |
5 | 18.4144% | 20.1437% | 237625 |
6 | 21.1509% | 18.6376% | 219858 |
7 | 14.0307% | 9.8193% | 115833 |
8 | 7.3457% | 6.1734% | 72824 |
9 | 2.7092% | 5.9536% | 70232 |
10 | 4.8681% | 5.8551% | 69070 |
11 | 0.5005% | 0.8548% | 10084 |
Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
2 | 0.0007% | 0.0283% | 334 |
3 | 2.0292% | 0.8807% | 10389 |
4 | 34.2783% | 30.6048% | 361029 |
5 | 28.4025% | 29.3300% | 345991 |
6 | 18.1512% | 16.5799% | 195585 |
7 | 9.7694% | 8.1966% | 96691 |
8 | 2.5327% | 6.5615% | 77403 |
9 | 3.2799% | 5.7259% | 67545 |
10 | 1.2947% | 1.6752% | 19762 |
11 | 0.2613% | 0.4170% | 4919 |
Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 9.0796% | 10.5487% | 124438 |
5 | 23.1072% | 23.2924% | 274768 |
6 | 22.0565% | 24.3969% | 287798 |
7 | 21.9743% | 22.3555% | 263716 |
8 | 15.7629% | 14.0192% | 165377 |
9 | 7.1488% | 4.8594% | 57324 |
10 | 0.6018% | 0.2925% | 3450 |
11 | 0.2690% | 0.2354% | 2777 |
Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
5 | 0.0119% | 0.0886% | 1045 |
6 | 2.6286% | 7.1085% | 83855 |
7 | 20.2973% | 27.6024% | 325611 |
8 | 38.4393% | 37.3497% | 440595 |
9 | 31.8253% | 23.1121% | 272641 |
10 | 6.0764% | 4.3734% | 51591 |
11 | 0.7213% | 0.3654% | 4310 |
Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 15.0513% | 17.1832% | 202701 |
5 | 10.4054% | 9.9073% | 116871 |
6 | 12.2541% | 10.9219% | 128840 |
7 | 12.8428% | 12.4537% | 146910 |
8 | 18.3270% | 14.9923% | 176856 |
9 | 15.9554% | 18.8296% | 222123 |
10 | 14.4053% | 15.0608% | 177665 |
11 | 0.7587% | 0.6512% | 7682 |
Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 6.1939% | 6.4067% | 75577 |
5 | 13.1025% | 8.9526% | 105609 |
6 | 10.8163% | 7.3850% | 87117 |
7 | 4.7657% | 4.6608% | 54981 |
8 | 11.7189% | 10.8731% | 128264 |
9 | 27.6532% | 24.7208% | 291619 |
10 | 21.1177% | 28.3718% | 334687 |
11 | 4.6317% | 8.6292% | 101794 |
Notre Dame - 99.9962% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 2.3794% | 1.7788% | 20983 |
5 | 6.0022% | 7.0479% | 83140 |
6 | 9.2869% | 9.5258% | 112371 |
7 | 6.1729% | 6.3637% | 75069 |
8 | 2.1430% | 3.5784% | 42213 |
9 | 10.2295% | 14.5951% | 172171 |
10 | 42.8033% | 31.2035% | 368092 |
11 | 14.3086% | 13.5301% | 159608 |
12 | 6.0695% | 9.3948% | 110826 |
13 | 0.4660% | 2.3333% | 27525 |
14 | 0.1286% | 0.4484% | 5289 |
15 | 0.0062% | 0.0163% | 192 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0002% | 0.0361% | 426 |
14 | 0.0026% | 0.1342% | 1583 |
15 | 0.0010% | 0.0136% | 160 |
New Hampshire - 99.9943% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 0.0071% | 0.0064% | 75 |
5 | 0.5539% | 1.2376% | 14599 |
6 | 3.6554% | 5.4443% | 64224 |
7 | 10.1469% | 8.5481% | 100837 |
8 | 3.7305% | 6.4524% | 76116 |
9 | 1.1986% | 2.2035% | 25993 |
10 | 3.4574% | 6.4376% | 75941 |
11 | 45.8526% | 36.3241% | 428496 |
12 | 21.7693% | 19.9887% | 235796 |
13 | 7.6493% | 10.0483% | 118534 |
14 | 1.9100% | 2.9465% | 34758 |
15 | 0.0632% | 0.1446% | 1706 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0006% | 0.0858% | 1012 |
14 | 0.0045% | 0.1177% | 1389 |
15 | 0.0007% | 0.0146% | 172 |
Nebraska-Omaha - 95.2101% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
12 | 15.9906% | 5.9020% | 69623 |
13 | 43.3190% | 31.3909% | 370302 |
14 | 23.1068% | 23.3193% | 275086 |
15 | 12.7937% | 10.1151% | 119322 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0078% | 0.5243% | 6185 |
14 | 0.3700% | 7.6953% | 90778 |
15 | 2.2448% | 15.5357% | 183266 |
16 | 2.1672% | 5.5174% | 65086 |
Rensselaer - 81.3656% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
10 | 0.0005% | 0.0058% | 68 |
11 | 0.4574% | 1.5599% | 18401 |
12 | 7.8356% | 12.7865% | 150836 |
13 | 19.9679% | 24.7119% | 291514 |
14 | 28.6039% | 27.0253% | 318803 |
15 | 24.5002% | 8.2914% | 97809 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0062% | 0.5383% | 6350 |
14 | 0.3022% | 4.4988% | 53070 |
15 | 5.2459% | 13.6443% | 160955 |
16 | 11.2954% | 6.4567% | 76166 |
17 | 1.7260% | 0.4508% | 5318 |
18 | 0.0583% | 0.0299% | 353 |
19 | 0.0005% | 0.0004% | 5 |
Western Michigan - 74.1120% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
10 | 5.2863% | 6.5770% | 77585 |
11 | 21.3646% | 26.4515% | 312035 |
12 | 14.1347% | 20.5177% | 242037 |
13 | 12.4041% | 12.5724% | 148310 |
14 | 6.9716% | 4.4887% | 52951 |
15 | 13.9506% | 2.7437% | 32366 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0017% | 0.1683% | 1985 |
14 | 0.1171% | 1.0315% | 12168 |
15 | 1.8667% | 4.3288% | 51065 |
16 | 6.7284% | 6.2331% | 73529 |
17 | 12.5605% | 8.6764% | 102351 |
18 | 4.4774% | 5.5614% | 65605 |
19 | 0.1363% | 0.6494% | 7661 |
Colorado College - 57.3556% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
10 | 0.0744% | 0.1228% | 1449 |
11 | 2.1227% | 3.2583% | 38437 |
12 | 13.5298% | 11.3727% | 134158 |
13 | 7.9382% | 8.3628% | 98652 |
14 | 21.2078% | 10.6144% | 125213 |
15 | 12.4828% | 5.2957% | 62471 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0019% | 0.1250% | 1475 |
14 | 0.2205% | 2.3316% | 27505 |
15 | 5.2431% | 15.4142% | 181833 |
16 | 22.2719% | 28.6815% | 338341 |
17 | 13.7780% | 11.9442% | 140900 |
18 | 1.1220% | 2.4658% | 29088 |
19 | 0.0070% | 0.0107% | 126 |
Dartmouth - 57.1864% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
10 | 0.0142% | 0.0244% | 288 |
11 | 8.7516% | 7.7231% | 91105 |
12 | 19.8931% | 18.7015% | 220612 |
13 | 7.1842% | 7.2547% | 85580 |
14 | 12.7128% | 7.6751% | 90539 |
15 | 8.6305% | 2.7445% | 32375 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0005% | 0.0847% | 999 |
14 | 0.0397% | 1.7039% | 20100 |
15 | 1.7526% | 6.9850% | 82398 |
16 | 19.8451% | 10.9730% | 129443 |
17 | 10.5549% | 9.0836% | 107155 |
18 | 6.9256% | 11.3466% | 133850 |
19 | 3.0195% | 10.1507% | 119742 |
20 | 0.5515% | 4.3925% | 51816 |
21 | 0.1174% | 1.0634% | 12544 |
22 | 0.0068% | 0.0934% | 1102 |
RIT - 55.3562% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.0758% | 1.5314% | 18065 |
15 | 4.2381% | 9.3513% | 110312 |
16 | 51.0423% | 14.1173% | 166535 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
19 | 0.0008% | 0.0016% | 19 |
20 | 0.0050% | 0.0196% | 231 |
21 | 17.3260% | 7.2878% | 85970 |
22 | 24.2923% | 6.6154% | 78039 |
23 | 11.1375% | 6.9363% | 81824 |
24 | 1.8409% | 2.1779% | 25691 |
25 | 0.8053% | 1.8063% | 21308 |
26 | 1.4643% | 2.1244% | 25061 |
27 | 1.6715% | 3.8487% | 45401 |
28 | 8.6694% | 12.9638% | 152927 |
29 | 20.1760% | 28.7671% | 339350 |
30 | 10.6236% | 21.3004% | 251270 |
31 | 1.9874% | 6.1507% | 72557 |
Air Force - 24.7723% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.0355% | 1.5625% | 18432 |
15 | 1.9074% | 9.3743% | 110584 |
16 | 22.8294% | 14.0632% | 165896 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
20 | 0.0024% | 0.0127% | 150 |
21 | 4.7251% | 5.0758% | 59876 |
22 | 12.6039% | 7.7426% | 91335 |
23 | 0.6307% | 1.2337% | 14553 |
24 | 4.4434% | 5.7896% | 68297 |
25 | 2.0459% | 4.0637% | 47937 |
26 | 1.0933% | 2.2693% | 26770 |
27 | 3.6916% | 3.8237% | 45106 |
28 | 10.1569% | 8.9786% | 105916 |
29 | 23.5492% | 14.4142% | 170037 |
30 | 33.7690% | 31.4752% | 371296 |
31 | 3.2885% | 15.1210% | 178375 |
Holy Cross - 12.0521% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
15 | 0.3281% | 6.2500% | 73728 |
16 | 11.7240% | 18.7500% | 221184 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
37 | 2.2853% | 4.7046% | 55498 |
38 | 5.1755% | 8.6071% | 101533 |
39 | 4.6071% | 11.8072% | 139283 |
40 | 26.7931% | 24.8129% | 292705 |
41 | 61.1390% | 50.0682% | 590629 |
Cornell - 11.0941% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.5840% | 6.2500% | 73728 |
15 | 10.5101% | 18.7500% | 221184 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
20 | 4.6542% | 8.5052% | 100332 |
21 | 2.9418% | 8.9122% | 105133 |
22 | 3.5053% | 6.5270% | 76996 |
23 | 0.5829% | 1.2676% | 14953 |
24 | 3.4090% | 3.0443% | 35912 |
25 | 18.8359% | 11.9774% | 141291 |
26 | 12.1639% | 14.8829% | 175566 |
27 | 23.8431% | 15.2574% | 179984 |
28 | 10.6720% | 7.5113% | 88607 |
29 | 9.3113% | 4.0422% | 47684 |
30 | 5.2163% | 7.5196% | 88705 |
31 | 3.4943% | 6.9998% | 82573 |
32 | 1.2765% | 3.1784% | 37494 |
33 | 0.0933% | 0.3745% | 4418 |
Boston University - 8.6979% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.2545% | 0.1867% | 2202 |
14 | 2.3336% | 1.6567% | 19543 |
15 | 6.1097% | 2.1303% | 25130 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.1031% | 0.9273% | 10939 |
15 | 3.6281% | 8.3800% | 98854 |
16 | 33.9957% | 34.7747% | 410219 |
17 | 50.0493% | 45.6760% | 538816 |
18 | 3.4829% | 6.1184% | 72175 |
19 | 0.0430% | 0.1500% | 1770 |
Connecticut - 7.8194% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
15 | 0.2129% | 6.2500% | 73728 |
16 | 7.6066% | 18.7500% | 221184 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
42 | 7.4330% | 24.4599% | 288541 |
43 | 0.3864% | 0.5401% | 6371 |
45 | 25.4633% | 37.7239% | 445009 |
46 | 65.5610% | 32.1615% | 379392 |
47 | 1.1563% | 5.1147% | 60335 |
Northeastern - 5.2644% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.0320% | 3.1561% | 37231 |
15 | 1.1568% | 12.5244% | 147744 |
16 | 4.0756% | 9.3195% | 109937 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
22 | 0.1318% | 0.8798% | 10378 |
23 | 0.0254% | 0.3537% | 4172 |
24 | 1.2479% | 5.0423% | 59481 |
25 | 1.4457% | 6.1473% | 72516 |
26 | 1.3139% | 5.4462% | 64246 |
27 | 0.6697% | 4.0653% | 47956 |
28 | 0.5287% | 3.1933% | 37670 |
29 | 0.7912% | 1.5454% | 18230 |
30 | 3.9894% | 9.1688% | 108159 |
31 | 8.1993% | 14.1581% | 167016 |
32 | 1.2960% | 1.3481% | 15903 |
33 | 38.4527% | 15.4611% | 182386 |
34 | 41.9083% | 33.1908% | 391535 |
Alaska-Anchorage - 3.5741% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
12 | 0.7773% | 1.3360% | 15760 |
13 | 0.6778% | 1.5233% | 17969 |
14 | 1.4575% | 2.8709% | 33867 |
15 | 0.6615% | 1.1588% | 13670 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.0065% | 0.2501% | 2950 |
15 | 0.1338% | 2.0607% | 24309 |
16 | 0.6101% | 3.3002% | 38931 |
18 | 0.4650% | 2.5129% | 29643 |
19 | 15.6847% | 15.8519% | 186997 |
20 | 69.7022% | 48.7129% | 574641 |
21 | 8.8278% | 17.2823% | 203870 |
22 | 0.9609% | 2.8353% | 33447 |
23 | 0.0349% | 0.3047% | 3594 |
Colgate - 2.7222% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
16 | 2.7222% | 25.0000% | 294912 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
45 | 2.0652% | 12.1108% | 142865 |
46 | 0.6338% | 12.5762% | 148355 |
47 | 0.0233% | 0.3130% | 3692 |
49 | 97.2778% | 75.0000% | 884736 |
Bemidji State - 2.5802% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.0188% | 1.5625% | 18432 |
14 | 0.4548% | 6.2500% | 73728 |
15 | 2.1066% | 4.6875% | 55296 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
17 | 0.0000% | 0.0002% | 2 |
18 | 0.3613% | 1.9500% | 23003 |
19 | 0.5392% | 2.4222% | 28574 |
20 | 1.3772% | 6.2091% | 73246 |
21 | 0.8543% | 2.8006% | 33037 |
22 | 5.1631% | 7.4743% | 88171 |
23 | 4.5495% | 7.7602% | 91543 |
24 | 6.3264% | 4.4333% | 52297 |
25 | 5.4895% | 8.1923% | 96640 |
26 | 36.2242% | 22.7781% | 268701 |
27 | 33.1885% | 23.1411% | 272984 |
28 | 5.4657% | 11.0094% | 129872 |
29 | 0.4612% | 1.8292% | 21578 |
Maine - 0.8470% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
13 | 0.1201% | 0.0532% | 628 |
14 | 0.3852% | 0.2047% | 2415 |
15 | 0.3417% | 0.1722% | 2031 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
14 | 0.0160% | 0.0595% | 702 |
15 | 0.3433% | 0.8108% | 9564 |
16 | 3.0861% | 4.0633% | 47933 |
17 | 11.3311% | 24.1675% | 285091 |
18 | 76.6596% | 56.6613% | 668404 |
19 | 7.5420% | 13.0502% | 153946 |
20 | 0.1749% | 0.7568% | 8928 |
21 | 0.0000% | 0.0005% | 6 |