Prediction with wins by DU, RIT, Miami, Yale, BC, and Air Force -- If Western Michigan wins
All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.
Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
1 | 100.0000% | 100.0000% | 2304 |
North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
2 | 62.5713% | 62.5000% | 1440 |
3 | 37.4287% | 37.5000% | 864 |
Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
2 | 37.4287% | 37.5000% | 864 |
3 | 62.5713% | 62.5000% | 1440 |
Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 73.6282% | 62.5000% | 1440 |
5 | 17.5415% | 22.9167% | 528 |
6 | 7.8219% | 12.5000% | 288 |
7 | 1.0084% | 2.0833% | 48 |
Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 14.3404% | 18.7500% | 432 |
5 | 57.0298% | 50.0000% | 1152 |
6 | 20.1809% | 22.9167% | 528 |
7 | 8.4490% | 8.3333% | 192 |
Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 7.0412% | 12.5000% | 288 |
5 | 11.6423% | 12.5000% | 288 |
6 | 31.4110% | 22.9167% | 528 |
7 | 11.3303% | 10.3733% | 239 |
8 | 18.2076% | 16.9271% | 390 |
9 | 19.8662% | 24.0885% | 555 |
10 | 0.5014% | 0.6944% | 16 |
Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
4 | 4.9902% | 6.2500% | 144 |
5 | 13.7864% | 14.5833% | 336 |
6 | 26.9164% | 24.4792% | 564 |
7 | 41.3584% | 33.8542% | 780 |
8 | 12.9486% | 20.8333% | 480 |
Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
6 | 6.0480% | 7.6389% | 176 |
7 | 29.4922% | 32.8559% | 757 |
8 | 63.9394% | 56.5104% | 1302 |
9 | 0.3933% | 2.0399% | 47 |
10 | 0.1271% | 0.9549% | 22 |
Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
8 | 4.2840% | 1.7795% | 41 |
9 | 63.0435% | 48.8281% | 1125 |
10 | 29.3793% | 41.0590% | 946 |
11 | 3.2931% | 8.3333% | 192 |
Notre Dame - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
8 | 0.2627% | 1.9965% | 46 |
9 | 16.5411% | 24.0451% | 554 |
10 | 33.5450% | 25.0000% | 576 |
11 | 31.1935% | 26.0851% | 601 |
12 | 15.9875% | 16.4497% | 379 |
13 | 1.3930% | 3.8194% | 88 |
14 | 1.0116% | 2.3438% | 54 |
15 | 0.0654% | 0.2604% | 6 |
Western Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
10 | 29.6103% | 26.5625% | 612 |
11 | 37.8878% | 38.0642% | 877 |
12 | 24.3372% | 23.0903% | 532 |
13 | 7.5029% | 10.7639% | 248 |
14 | 0.3756% | 0.9115% | 21 |
15 | 0.2862% | 0.6076% | 14 |
New Hampshire - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
6 | 7.6218% | 9.5486% | 220 |
7 | 8.3618% | 12.5000% | 288 |
8 | 0.3575% | 1.9531% | 45 |
9 | 0.1558% | 0.9983% | 23 |
10 | 5.7195% | 3.4722% | 80 |
11 | 16.4279% | 10.4167% | 240 |
12 | 35.0337% | 23.0903% | 532 |
13 | 19.7386% | 22.5260% | 519 |
14 | 5.9646% | 13.4549% | 310 |
15 | 0.6186% | 2.0399% | 47 |
Colorado College - 90.9571% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
10 | 0.9224% | 1.6493% | 38 |
11 | 3.6531% | 7.0312% | 162 |
12 | 4.1705% | 9.0278% | 208 |
13 | 17.8133% | 18.6632% | 430 |
14 | 52.0311% | 34.5052% | 795 |
15 | 12.3668% | 16.1024% | 371 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
15 | 0.3679% | 3.1684% | 73 |
16 | 8.6750% | 9.8524% | 227 |
Nebraska-Omaha - 90.8456% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
12 | 7.5954% | 4.9045% | 113 |
13 | 41.8100% | 24.6528% | 568 |
14 | 15.7000% | 20.1389% | 464 |
15 | 25.7402% | 26.5625% | 612 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
15 | 2.1535% | 9.2882% | 214 |
16 | 7.0009% | 14.4531% | 333 |
Rensselaer - 82.0844% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
12 | 3.5247% | 9.1146% | 210 |
13 | 11.7422% | 19.5747% | 451 |
14 | 24.8647% | 28.4722% | 656 |
15 | 41.9528% | 22.6128% | 521 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
15 | 6.1109% | 11.7622% | 271 |
16 | 11.8047% | 8.4635% | 195 |
RIT - 51.5862% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
16 | 51.5862% | 50.0000% | 1152 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
21 | 23.4527% | 23.0903% | 532 |
22 | 23.5689% | 14.4097% | 332 |
23 | 4.5448% | 11.8490% | 273 |
24 | 0.0199% | 0.6510% | 15 |
28 | 13.8921% | 15.7552% | 363 |
29 | 34.5217% | 34.2448% | 789 |
Air Force - 48.4138% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
16 | 48.4138% | 50.0000% | 1152 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
21 | 23.2891% | 23.6545% | 545 |
22 | 20.7723% | 13.1510% | 303 |
23 | 0.0684% | 0.6944% | 16 |
24 | 4.2840% | 12.5000% | 288 |
28 | 13.3225% | 11.5451% | 266 |
29 | 38.2637% | 38.4549% | 886 |
Dartmouth - 27.0461% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
10 | 0.1949% | 0.6076% | 14 |
11 | 7.5446% | 10.0694% | 232 |
12 | 9.3509% | 14.3229% | 330 |
14 | 0.0524% | 0.1736% | 4 |
15 | 9.9032% | 6.5538% | 151 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
15 | 0.1448% | 0.4340% | 10 |
16 | 56.7059% | 34.5052% | 795 |
17 | 10.8455% | 13.4983% | 311 |
18 | 4.1780% | 10.9809% | 253 |
19 | 1.0798% | 8.8542% | 204 |
Cornell - 8.8486% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
15 | 8.8486% | 25.0000% | 576 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
20 | 8.8486% | 25.0000% | 576 |
23 | 0.8182% | 0.7378% | 17 |
25 | 7.6874% | 5.1215% | 118 |
26 | 10.4408% | 5.3819% | 124 |
27 | 20.2408% | 15.5816% | 359 |
28 | 22.1829% | 14.8438% | 342 |
29 | 24.5025% | 16.6233% | 383 |
30 | 0.7305% | 3.7760% | 87 |
31 | 4.3560% | 12.5868% | 290 |
32 | 0.1922% | 0.3472% | 8 |
Boston University - 0.2183% Chance of being in the tournament
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
15 | 0.2183% | 0.2604% | 6 |
Seed | Weighted | Unweighted | Permutations |
15 | 0.0715% | 0.3472% | 8 |
16 | 15.8135% | 32.7257% | 754 |
17 | 83.8967% | 66.6667% | 1536 |