Prediction with wins by DU, RIT, Miami, Yale, BC, and Air Force -- If Western Michigan wins

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email hamilr2@rpi.edu with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Yale100.0000%1
North Dakota100.0000%2
Boston College100.0000%3
Miami100.0000%4
Denver100.0000%5
Merrimack100.0000%6
Michigan100.0000%7
Union100.0000%8
Minnesota-Duluth100.0000%9
Notre Dame100.0000%10
Western Michigan100.0000%11
New Hampshire100.0000%12
Colorado College90.9571%14
Nebraska-Omaha90.8456%13
Rensselaer82.0844%15
RIT51.5862%16
Air Force48.4138%16
Dartmouth27.0461%15
Cornell8.8486%15
Boston University0.2183%15

Yale - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1100.0000%100.0000%2304

North Dakota - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
262.5713%62.5000%1440
337.4287%37.5000%864

Boston College - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
237.4287%37.5000%864
362.5713%62.5000%1440

Miami - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
473.6282%62.5000%1440
517.5415%22.9167%528
67.8219%12.5000%288
71.0084%2.0833%48

Denver - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
414.3404%18.7500%432
557.0298%50.0000%1152
620.1809%22.9167%528
78.4490%8.3333%192

Merrimack - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
47.0412%12.5000%288
511.6423%12.5000%288
631.4110%22.9167%528
711.3303%10.3733%239
818.2076%16.9271%390
919.8662%24.0885%555
100.5014%0.6944%16

Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
44.9902%6.2500%144
513.7864%14.5833%336
626.9164%24.4792%564
741.3584%33.8542%780
812.9486%20.8333%480

Union - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
66.0480%7.6389%176
729.4922%32.8559%757
863.9394%56.5104%1302
90.3933%2.0399%47
100.1271%0.9549%22

Minnesota-Duluth - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
84.2840%1.7795%41
963.0435%48.8281%1125
1029.3793%41.0590%946
113.2931%8.3333%192

Notre Dame - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.2627%1.9965%46
916.5411%24.0451%554
1033.5450%25.0000%576
1131.1935%26.0851%601
1215.9875%16.4497%379
131.3930%3.8194%88
141.0116%2.3438%54
150.0654%0.2604%6

Western Michigan - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1029.6103%26.5625%612
1137.8878%38.0642%877
1224.3372%23.0903%532
137.5029%10.7639%248
140.3756%0.9115%21
150.2862%0.6076%14

New Hampshire - 100.0000% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
67.6218%9.5486%220
78.3618%12.5000%288
80.3575%1.9531%45
90.1558%0.9983%23
105.7195%3.4722%80
1116.4279%10.4167%240
1235.0337%23.0903%532
1319.7386%22.5260%519
145.9646%13.4549%310
150.6186%2.0399%47

Colorado College - 90.9571% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.9224%1.6493%38
113.6531%7.0312%162
124.1705%9.0278%208
1317.8133%18.6632%430
1452.0311%34.5052%795
1512.3668%16.1024%371
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3679%3.1684%73
168.6750%9.8524%227

Nebraska-Omaha - 90.8456% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
127.5954%4.9045%113
1341.8100%24.6528%568
1415.7000%20.1389%464
1525.7402%26.5625%612
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
152.1535%9.2882%214
167.0009%14.4531%333

Rensselaer - 82.0844% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
123.5247%9.1146%210
1311.7422%19.5747%451
1424.8647%28.4722%656
1541.9528%22.6128%521
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
156.1109%11.7622%271
1611.8047%8.4635%195

RIT - 51.5862% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1651.5862%50.0000%1152
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2123.4527%23.0903%532
2223.5689%14.4097%332
234.5448%11.8490%273
240.0199%0.6510%15
2813.8921%15.7552%363
2934.5217%34.2448%789

Air Force - 48.4138% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1648.4138%50.0000%1152
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2123.2891%23.6545%545
2220.7723%13.1510%303
230.0684%0.6944%16
244.2840%12.5000%288
2813.3225%11.5451%266
2938.2637%38.4549%886

Dartmouth - 27.0461% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.1949%0.6076%14
117.5446%10.0694%232
129.3509%14.3229%330
140.0524%0.1736%4
159.9032%6.5538%151
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.1448%0.4340%10
1656.7059%34.5052%795
1710.8455%13.4983%311
184.1780%10.9809%253
191.0798%8.8542%204

Cornell - 8.8486% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
158.8486%25.0000%576
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
208.8486%25.0000%576
230.8182%0.7378%17
257.6874%5.1215%118
2610.4408%5.3819%124
2720.2408%15.5816%359
2822.1829%14.8438%342
2924.5025%16.6233%383
300.7305%3.7760%87
314.3560%12.5868%290
320.1922%0.3472%8

Boston University - 0.2183% Chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2183%0.2604%6
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.0715%0.3472%8
1615.8135%32.7257%754
1783.8967%66.6667%1536